(Pew:) Romney’s Strong Debate Performance Erases Obama’s Lead (49-45 likely voters)

  • Thread starter Thread starter markomalley
  • Start date Start date
Status
Not open for further replies.
M

markomalley

Guest
From the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press:

Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit.

Fully 66% of registered voters say Romney did the better job in last Wednesday’s debate, compared with just 20% who say Obama did better. A majority (64%) of voters who watched the debate describe it as mostly informative; just 26% say it was mostly confusing.

In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.
Remember that the Pew Poll, along with Rasmussen, were the two most accurate polls during the '08 election season.

But the only poll that matters is the one that Democratic voters go to on November 7th. 😉
 
Why did Pew oversample democrats by 10 in their last poll and oversample republicans by 5 in this poll?
 
markomalley said:
But the only poll that matters is the one that Democratic voters go to on November 7th. 😉
Click to expand...
The ONLY accurate poll is the tally after the election. All the rest are no more than speculation or wishful thinking - by both sides! 🤷 🤷
 
a lot can still happen in the remaining 29 days. i pray that Mitt Romney will continue to do well in the debates and portray himsef as self confident. and i pray those that support Mitt for president will shop up to vote! 🙂
 
Oops it is not plus 5 in the Pew poll, but plus 0.7
The one caveat here is the sample. Among registered voters, it’s 34.7R/34D/31.3I; among likelies, it’s probably a few points more Republican than that. Romney’s pollster and Scott Rasmussen have each said they’re expecting a sample of D+3 or so on election day, so this is a rare poll that’s actually a bit redder than it should be — although even that’s a testament to Romney’s debate performance. Party ID tends to shift a bit as each side builds momentum; that’s why the samples after the Democratic convention were a little bluer than usual. What’s happening here, I think, is that some chunk of the audience that watched the debate was sufficiently impressed by Mitt that they’re now identifying as Republican this week. If Ryan does well on Thursday and Romney follows through in his last two debates, maybe that identification will solidify and we’ll get a redder turnout on November 6 than even Team Mitt is expecting
Click to expand...
 
They are starting to get more realistic with their polling numbers. There is no way Obama lost over 10% of his voters with one debate. The logical conclusion - he never had them in the first place. Polls are still undersampling the “undecided” and over sampling the democrats.
 
SamH said:
They are starting to get more realistic with their polling numbers. There is no way Obama lost over 10% of his voters with one debate. The logical conclusion - he never had them in the first place. Polls are still undersampling the “undecided” and over sampling the democrats.
Click to expand...
I agree with this absolutely completely. I have been saying this all along.🙂
 
7_Sorrows said:
a lot can still happen in the remaining 29 days. i pray that Mitt Romney will continue to do well in the debates and portray himsef as self confident. and i pray those that support Mitt for president will shop up to vote! 🙂
Click to expand...
I was hoping for a nice big n juicy donor scandal that explains how Obama took in over $180m last month, mostly untreaceable and from overseas. A good scandal plus a few more debate losses may knock the rose colored glasses off Dems and the protective press.

No rational person would vote for Obama again.
 
tarboy said:
I was hoping for a nice big n juicy donor scandal that explains how Obama took in over $180m last month, mostly untreaceable and from overseas. A good scandal plus a few more debate losses may knock the rose colored glasses off Dems and the protective press.

No rational person would vote for Obama again.
Click to expand...
That’s still being stalled…
 
Rich_Olszewski said:
The ONLY accurate poll is the tally after the election. All the rest are no more than speculation or wishful thinking - by both sides! 🤷 🤷
Click to expand...
That’s true - and I’ve been echoing those words for a while. But don’t you think that the sampling has been a bit odd? Many of the polls have taken 2008 models and sampled voters based on that turnout, but most observers say that the turnout this time is looking quite different. Just like I don’t want “my side” to become overconfident, I also don’t want them to despair based on polls that are skewed toward Democrats.

Ishii
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top