Correct, Metereology is not yet an “exact” science but still uses the best knowledge of the factors that affect the weather to come up with a “forecast” akin to an “educated guess” but based on facts.
It is not conjuring up spirits to make the prediction.
Also metereology will give a percentage of possibility of being right in making the forecast.
Since not ALL the parameters that affect the weather are completely known and understood at this stage. But as our understanding of the principles that govern the weather are understood and quaintified, our hability to forecast with more and better precision the weather will ensue.
The basis of metereology follows the scientific method.
Theory, Model, Observation, Measurement, Fitting of data to Model, Correct the Model or the Theory if discrepances are observed. Computers help us in the Modelling of the atmosphere.
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