H
HopingforGodtohelp
Guest
I was wondering a bit about the sin of usury. People generally think of it as charging a very high interest rate. But what if someone were to make a business out of lending to the very poor and desperate. Let’s say these people had a 50% chance of paying the loan back.
You can set up the equation
(1+r)(1-d) to be the expected value of your loan. r being the interest rate you are charging, and d being the default rate.
If we assume 2% is the risk-free interest rate (it’s a little bit lower now, but usually, this is about right), then we can say that any lender who wants to stay in business wouldn’t choose a loan with an expected value less than (1+r)(1-d)=1.02. Now, if you add .5 as d, as I mentioned earlier, you get (1+r)(1-.5)=1.02, you can divide both sides by .5, and get (1+r)=2.04, then subtract 1, and you get r=1.04, or 104%!
If people saw someone charging a loan of 104%, I suspect people would call it outrageous and usurious. Note, this is just the interest rate needed to on average equal lending to the government. In truth, the interest rate needed to even stay in business would likely be a lot higher because of risk premiums. Some microcredit programs have pretty high interest rates. Would it be immoral to make a business out of lending to the poor, even knowing that not doing so might deprive them of credit? Should we hope they get money some other way? I don’t know what the answer is here
You can set up the equation
(1+r)(1-d) to be the expected value of your loan. r being the interest rate you are charging, and d being the default rate.
If we assume 2% is the risk-free interest rate (it’s a little bit lower now, but usually, this is about right), then we can say that any lender who wants to stay in business wouldn’t choose a loan with an expected value less than (1+r)(1-d)=1.02. Now, if you add .5 as d, as I mentioned earlier, you get (1+r)(1-.5)=1.02, you can divide both sides by .5, and get (1+r)=2.04, then subtract 1, and you get r=1.04, or 104%!
If people saw someone charging a loan of 104%, I suspect people would call it outrageous and usurious. Note, this is just the interest rate needed to on average equal lending to the government. In truth, the interest rate needed to even stay in business would likely be a lot higher because of risk premiums. Some microcredit programs have pretty high interest rates. Would it be immoral to make a business out of lending to the poor, even knowing that not doing so might deprive them of credit? Should we hope they get money some other way? I don’t know what the answer is here