Mormon Church Growth to Stop / Shrink after 2020

[AG_OW_DC]

According to the data listed on the Official LDS Church website, the growth rate of the Mormons will reach “0” (cross the x-axis) in 2020. This is according to a linear trend-line of the member data collected over the past 10 years. Should this trend continue after 2020 the LDS Church would shrink.

Please do not argue with me, the data speaks for itself. Plot it yourself on Excel.
Here is the data link:
lds.org/newsroom/page/0,15606,4037-1—6-168,00.html

 

[TOmNossor]

AG_OW_DC:

According to the data listed on the Official LDS Church website, the growth rate of the Mormons will reach “0” (cross the x-axis) in 2020. This is according to a linear trend-line of the member data collected over the past 10 years. Should this trend continue after 2020 the LDS Church would shrink.

Please do not argue with me, the data speaks for itself. Plot it yourself on Excel.
Here is the data link:
lds.org/newsroom/page/0,15606,4037-1—6-168,00.html

I think that I will not argue with you. I preformed a reasonable mathematical manipulation and got 2017.

Instead, I ask you to define your parameters and methods. What are your assumptions?

You are not under the impression that there is only one way to look at the data and project to the future are you? Of course other ways of looking at the data that are not unreasonable could produce different results. In addition to this, the data does not present the entire story.

I consider myself and my attitude to be part of the problem although not the largest part. I do not think LDS think that we have something radically superior to what other religions have. I believe many LDS look at our church as a step up, but not to the point were we must tell others they are headed for damnation. I suspect this has changed how the average LDS interacts with their neighbor. Still, I am not convinced that it is quite as grim as you are suggesting. I do not presently see how rapid growth will return, but I doubt very seriously that significant contraction will result as early as 2020 either.

So while this is not good for getting the most converts, there are other even more apathetic stances that probably are more prevalent in the CoJCoLDS today than were in decades past.

Charity, TOm

 

[tkdnick]

AG_OW_DC:

According to the data listed on the Official LDS Church website, the growth rate of the Mormons will reach “0” (cross the x-axis) in 2020. This is according to a linear trend-line of the member data collected over the past 10 years. Should this trend continue after 2020 the LDS Church would shrink.

Please do not argue with me, the data speaks for itself. Plot it yourself on Excel.
Here is the data link:
lds.org/newsroom/page/0,15606,4037-1—6-168,00.html

And…?

There are so many things that could happen between now and 2020 to change the trend.

 

[Casen]

RE: There are so many things that could happen between now and 2020 to change the trend.

I agree. The church is becoming more international and the world is constantly changing which means any number of things could impact chruch growth for the positive or negative.