A geeky post on probabilities

[Lotharson57]

Given the fact that many philosophers (theist and atheits alike) use many probabilities in their reasoning, I found it pertinent to help my readers better understand such concepts and their limits:

lotharlorraine.wordpress.com/2014/01/10/knowledge-dependent-frequentist-probabilities/

My purpose is to help interested lay people, and I would be thankful if you could tell me if you find some points obscure so that I can improve the description.

It is probably impossible to presuppose no mathematical notion of any sort.

Lovely greetings from Europe.

 

[Lotharson57]

One thing which prompted me to start this series were the attempts of New Atheist Richard Carrier to prove that it is very probable that Jesus never existed:

amazon.com/Proving-History-Bayess-Theorem-Historical/dp/1616145595

Many lay persons feel kind of overwhelmed by his mathematical formalism and it is my purpose to critically examine his ideas and dispel many myths he takes for granted.

 

[Ion]

One thing which prompted me to start this series were the attempts of New Atheist Richard Carrier to prove that it is very probable that Jesus never existed:

amazon.com/Proving-History-Bayess-Theorem-Historical/dp/1616145595

Many lay persons feel kind of overwhelmed by his mathematical formalism and it is my purpose to critically examine his ideas and dispel many myths he takes for granted.

From amazon: “…Almost all experts agree that the Jesus of the Bible is a composite of myth, legend, and some historical evidence…”
Experts in what? Christianity a collection of myths and legends?
Totally ignorants…Only somebody who has only vague ideeas about christianity can say such enormities…

 

[Bob_Crowley]

Given the fact that many philosophers (theist and atheits alike) use many probabilities in their reasoning, I found it pertinent to help my readers better understand such concepts and their limits:

lotharlorraine.wordpress.com/2014/01/10/knowledge-dependent-frequentist-probabilities/

My purpose is to help interested lay people, and I would be thankful if you could tell me if you find some points obscure so that I can improve the description.

It is probably impossible to presuppose no mathematical notion of any sort.

Lovely greetings from Europe.

How can the theory of statistics and probability apply to a one-off event? By its very nature, it is only applicable to repeating events, with a sufficiently large sample for testing.

 

[Lotharson57]

Hello Bob.

I went into this objection in my blog post and explain how it is meaningful to speak of the probabilities of single events.

The main problem of Carrier’s methodology is that estimating the probabilities involves enormous approximations which presumably cannot even be quantified.

This is why I consider his approach as a pseudo-scholarship, he does not even seem to be aware of the extent of the problem.