G
gilliam
Guest
Al Qaeda remains trapped in a Vietnam fantasy. It is desperately trying to produce an “Iraqi Tet” – a Middle Eastern repetition of the North Vietnamese and Viet Cong 1968 offensive in South Vietnam.
On April 2 and again on April 4, the terrorist gang led by al Qaeda’s Iraq commander, Abu Musab Zarqawi, launched “military-style attacks” on the Abu Ghraib prison complex in Baghdad. In the April 4 assault, U.S. forces took 44 casualties (most of them minor wounds). The terrorist gang, however, took 50 casualties, out of a force estimated at 60 gunmen.
On April 11, the gang attacked a Marine compound at Husaybah near the Syrian border. As I write, terrorist casualties are unconfirmed, but the assault flopped.
While bomb attacks on unarmed Iraqi civilians continue (particularly against Shi’ites), public opinion now matters in Iraq, and the thugs’ public slaughters have killed too many Iraqi innocents. January’s election dramatically lifted public morale and changed the media focus: Suddenly, democracy looks possible, and an Arab Muslim democracy is al Qaeda’s worst nightmare.
Hence the “Tet gamble.” Bombs have not cowed the Iraqi people, but perhaps the American people will lose heart and buckle if al Qaeda concocts a military surprise.
“They’re trying to create a spectacular event, overrun a patrol or border outpost somewhere, an event with huge media value that would promote their cause and make them seem more powerful than they are.”
At Abu Ghraib and Husaybah, Zarqawi failed militarily. He did not get his scare headlines, either. Short of detonating a nuclear weapon in Baghdad, a ground attack on the Green Zone that succeeds in cracking the U.S. Embassy and taking hostages is the only “Tet” card Zarqawi has. The Green Zone, however, is Iraq’s hardest target.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com …
On April 2 and again on April 4, the terrorist gang led by al Qaeda’s Iraq commander, Abu Musab Zarqawi, launched “military-style attacks” on the Abu Ghraib prison complex in Baghdad. In the April 4 assault, U.S. forces took 44 casualties (most of them minor wounds). The terrorist gang, however, took 50 casualties, out of a force estimated at 60 gunmen.
On April 11, the gang attacked a Marine compound at Husaybah near the Syrian border. As I write, terrorist casualties are unconfirmed, but the assault flopped.
While bomb attacks on unarmed Iraqi civilians continue (particularly against Shi’ites), public opinion now matters in Iraq, and the thugs’ public slaughters have killed too many Iraqi innocents. January’s election dramatically lifted public morale and changed the media focus: Suddenly, democracy looks possible, and an Arab Muslim democracy is al Qaeda’s worst nightmare.
Hence the “Tet gamble.” Bombs have not cowed the Iraqi people, but perhaps the American people will lose heart and buckle if al Qaeda concocts a military surprise.
“They’re trying to create a spectacular event, overrun a patrol or border outpost somewhere, an event with huge media value that would promote their cause and make them seem more powerful than they are.”
At Abu Ghraib and Husaybah, Zarqawi failed militarily. He did not get his scare headlines, either. Short of detonating a nuclear weapon in Baghdad, a ground attack on the Green Zone that succeeds in cracking the U.S. Embassy and taking hostages is the only “Tet” card Zarqawi has. The Green Zone, however, is Iraq’s hardest target.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com …