After I read your post, I took a quich check of murder rates in Texas.
disastercenter.com/crime/txcrime.htm
It looks pretty significant to me. I guess everyone has to decide for themselves.
Well, the assertion by some researchers is that aggressive use of the death penalty brutilizes a culture, which is why Texas has horrific violent crime, while 10 of the 12 states without the death penalty have violent crime rates below the national average. Personally, I am not convinced. Genesis315 seems to have looked at more of the reserach. Of the 18 most recent studies I can find on the death penalties effect on violent crime, 12 conclude that there is no measurable effect at all. Of the remaining 6, 4 conclude that it increases violent crime, and 2 conclude that it serves as a deterent (only one claims that it is a significant deterent and that study was not able to be reproduced at either the University of Chicago or U.C. Davis).
I think that the most reasonable conclussion is that people committing crimes of passion are not thinking about consequences, and the broken minds that commit repeat attrocities are incapable of self regulation, so any effect that the death penalty has either way is so insignificant as to be effectively unmeasurable in current data.
However, you are very wise to be suspicious of statistics because they are so easily abused. Look at the original reference. In the opinion piece Lott asserts that the ABA claims racial bias but his data shows no “racial bias”. But look at his ‘blog’, where he elaborates:
The problem is that the gap between blacks and their share of executions and murders has gotten larger over time. This was originally in the op-ed, but got cut for space constraints. (The numbers before 1980 are pretty meaningless because even when an execution took place, there was only one execution a year.)
He even makes a chart of his data:
bp0.blogger.com/_2SW2_lbrxgY/RyuUcICPSZI/AAAAAAAAACQ/bSiKKe-485E/s1600-h/Picture+4.png
Now, statistics 101 would indicate that NO racial bias would mean that, within certain deviation, race is proportionally represented. But while he is claiming that his data disproves an assertion of racial bias, he is actually claiming that there is racial bias and it is getting ‘worse’. He is claiming that blacks are being ‘under executed’.
Now, there are some good reasons to assert that his comparison itself is altogether worthless, but let’s take it at face value. There is a racial bias, and it is getting worse. But what, exactly, is the bias? Most black homicides are fellow blacks, so does the data indicate that we seek the death penalty less often for black victims? That would seem to match the ABA survey data, which shows that we are far more inclined to seek the death penalty when the victim is white and of a higher socioeconomic status and dramatically more likely to seek the death penalty when the the perpetrator is black and the victim is white than vice versa.
But, regardless of a hypothesis, we still have a clear case where someone is pandering to a certain set of beliefs (and I think baser instincts) with bad data which shows the opposite of his assertion. This happens a lot, and since most people do not really have the training to distinguish statistics from bullistics, they tend to simply use statistics as arguments of convenience with no real belief in the underlying sciences or methodology. That is, ‘good’ statistics are statistics that agree with a pre-held believe, ‘bad’ statistics are any that disagree. Raw data, methodology, etc. are not even considered.