Catholicism and Climate Change: The Sequel

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If we do that we can see that Hansen’s 1988 model has a trend of 0.23 degrees C warming/decade since 1984 rather than the actual 0.20 degrees C warming/decade. (The link above has the Scenario A, B, and C forecasts as well for reference.)
Interesting you should point to Hansen’s model. I watched the presentation Legates gave that Monte pointed to in an earlier post and there was one chart showing 18 models with their estimates of cloud water over oceans, along with the observational amount. The two models with the worst estimates of moisture were … Hansen’s; they estimated five times as much cloud water as actually exists. Given that H2O is by far the most significant greenhouse gas, not to mention its effect on cloud formation, a model that assumes a concentration five times higher than actual is … suspect.

Ender
 
Hansen and the warmers are not commenting on the recent work done on cosmic rays … which downgrades the models used for the IPCC conclusions dramatically.

AND points conclusively to natural causes for global warming/cooling/climate change.
 
Apologies for the sequential posting, but there is a LOT of very good and very recent stuff out there:

Just now found this:

Go here and scroll way down:

alfin2100.blogspot.com/2011_05_22_archive.html

22 MAY 2011

Politically Correct Delusions and Madnesses of Crowds
The fates of modern democratic societies are dependent far more upon the behaviour of crowds – or the mob – than most citizens would like to believe. Popular culture is determined by mob tastes and preferences, and the often unpredictable behaviour of mobs on election day is bemoaned by leaders of all political parties – at one time or another. Mob behaviours are guided by mob beliefs, which are as often as not, delusional. Here is a good example of a modern popular delusion from Princeton Physics Professor William Happer:
I want to discuss a contemporary moral epidemic: the notion that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, will have disastrous consequences for mankind and for the planet. The “climate crusade” is one characterized by true believers, opportunists, cynics, money-hungry governments, manipulators of various types—even children’s crusades—all based on contested science and dubious claims.

…We need to be vigilant to keep our land, air, and waters free of real pollution, particulates, heavy metals, and pathogens, but carbon dioxide (CO2 ) is not one of these pollutants. Carbon is the stuff of life. Our bodies are made of carbon. A normal human exhales around 1 kg of CO2 (the simplest chemically stable molecule of carbon in the earth’s atmosphere) per day. Before the industrial period, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was 270 ppm. At the present time, the concentration is about 390 ppm, 0.039 percent of all atmospheric molecules and less than 1 percent of that in our breath. About fifty million years ago, a brief moment in the long history of life on earth, geological evidence indicates, CO2 levels were several thousand ppm, much higher than now. And life flourished abundantly.

Now the Environmental Protection Agency wants to regulate atmospheric CO2 as a “pollutant.” According to my Webster’s New Collegiate Dictionary, to pollute is “to make or render unclean, to defile, to desecrate, to profane.” By breathing are we rendering the air unclean, defiling or desecrating it?

…As far as green plants are concerned, CO2 is not a pollutant, but part of their daily bread—like water, sunlight, nitrogen, and other essential elements. Most green plants evolved at CO2 levels of several thousand ppm, many times higher than now. Plants grow better and have better flowers and fruit at higher levels. Commercial greenhouse operators recognize this when they artificially increase the concentrations inside their greenhouses to over 1000 ppm.

…We would be perfectly healthy in a world with little or no atmospheric CO2—except that we would have nothing to eat and a few other minor inconveniences, because most plants stop growing if the levels drop much below 150 ppm. If we want to continue to be fed and clothed by the products of green plants, we can have too little CO2.

The minimum acceptable value for plants is not that much below the 270 ppm preindustrial value. It is possible that this is not enough, that we are better off with our current level, and would be better off with more still. There is evidence that California orange groves are about 30 percent more productive today than they were 150 years ago because of the increase of atmospheric CO2.

…A rare case of good correlation between CO2 levels and temperature is provided by ice-core records of the cycles of glacial and interglacial periods of the last million years of so. But these records show that changes in temperature preceded changes in CO2 levels, so that the levels were an effect of temperature changes. This was probably due to outgassing of CO2 from the warming oceans and the reverse effect when they cooled.

…The earth’s climate has always been changing. Our present global warming is not at all unusual by the standards of geological history, and it is probably benefiting the biosphere. Indeed, there is very little correlation between the estimates of CO2 and of the earth’s temperature over the past 550 million years (the “Phanerozoic” period). The message is clear that several factors must influence the earth’s temperature, and that while CO2 is one of these factors, it is seldom the dominant one. _WUWT
Full article by Professor Happer at First Things

Another popular delusion of politically correct crowds is a strong belief in the desirability of replacing modern coal, gas, and nuclear power plants with wind and solar power.

Mass delusions do not require reason or logic to gain converts. They only need to project the view that “everyone knows that …” “every schoolboy knows …” or “everybody believes that …” This false sense of security in perceived numbers of believers has taken in a huge number of pseudo-intellectuals within the academy, in journalism, in politics, and in popular media and entertainment. All the better to project the delusion of universal belief.

In hindsight, such delusional madnesses are quite clearly absurd and without rational foundation. But when one is living through the delusion, the primeval instincts of the species hold sway.

Basic Reading on crowd behaviour:

Gustave le Bon: The Crowd
Charles Mackay: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Both titles above are also available for download at the Gutenberg Project

More on Gustave le Bon from Against Politics

23 May 2011 More: The increasingly rowdy and violent mobs known as government unions should be seen a particularly ominous portent for the future, to anyone who cares about freedom and independent action.
Labels: climate, Climate Grifters, leftist decay
 
It has been demonstrated over and over that Hansen cherry picked his data and cooked the books by adjusting the data to suit his argument.
No, he hasn’t. In fact he’s just been vindicated yet again by none other than Anthony Watts himself. I don’t understand how you can be so cavalier about posting accusations like that when it is so easy to prove that they are not true. Ever heard of the phrase “bearing false witness”?

Hansen’s source code has been available for anyone to look at for years. It can be and has been scrutinised by many and replicated by others, proving that all of the adjustments being done by the code were accurately described by the papers he has published for over two decades now — in other words, he was completely honest. More than that, the techniques he used to detect and correct problems in the raw data were justified based on empirical analysis way back in the late 80s that I posted in the previous thread.

All of the raw data has also been freely available for anyone else to investigate for well over a decade, and as Anthony Watts just proved, none of the station siting issues make a material difference:
the difference between the trend estimated using the full network and the trend estimated using the 576 best-sited stations was less than 0.01ºC/decade
How could there have been cherry-picking of data anyway? Do you even understand what his algorithm does?
The fact is that the decision to form the EPA was based on false and erroneous information.
That’s not a “fact”.
Legates addresses the specifics.
It’s funny how you falsely make accusations about Hansen that are ridiculous at face value and easily proven false while at the same time are more than happy to accept whatever Legates says without any concerns.
 
Interesting you should point to Hansen’s model.
Not really. His 1988 testimony to Congress was very high-profile and influential and his is the oldest model forecast that I know of. When someone has the courage to make a multi-decade prediction into the future with their climate model then it’s only natural to go back to it a few decades later to see how well they did and give them kudos if it turns out they really did know what they were talking about, in exactly the same way you’d be panning him now if his prediction was anywhere near as bad as Lindzen’s.

Also, it takes a few decades for the climate signal to emerge clearly from the weather noise, so more recent models could be getting it right purely by luck. Hansen’s is just old enough that its accuracy is a true demonstration of skill.
I watched the presentation Legates gave that Monte pointed to in an earlier post and there was one chart showing 18 models with their estimates of cloud water over oceans, along with the observational amount. The two models with the worst estimates of moisture were … Hansen’s; they estimated five times as much cloud water as actually exists. Given that H2O is by far the most significant greenhouse gas, not to mention its effect on cloud formation, a model that assumes a concentration five times higher than actual is … suspect.
I hope you’ll forgive me if, after my previous experiences with you, I ask for the source material so that I can see what it actually says for myself.

In the meantime, I draw your attention to the graph that you must have somehow overlooked from my previous post:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Hansen_vs_Lindzen_simple.png

Actual results trump “suspicions” any day.
 
Hansen and the warmers are not commenting on the recent work done on cosmic rays
Yes, they have: realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/05/an-incremental-step-blown-up/
… which downgrades the models used for the IPCC conclusions dramatically.
No, it doesn’t. (ibid.)
AND points conclusively to natural causes for global warming/cooling/climate change.
Hardly. How could it? Did you notice an 11-year cycle in the temperature record?



Upper blue: global mean temperature
Green: forcings associated with CO2
Grey: galactic cosmic rays
Light blue: total solar irradiance
Red: sunspot numbers

Seriously — even without any known mechanism for GCR influence on global temperature, it’s obvious the effect must be small otherwise the global temperature would be oscillating up and down in time with those fluctuations rather than steadily trending upwards along with CO2 concentrations. Having a mechanism for how it might have an impact doesn’t change that fact.

Meanwhile, the laws of radiative physics that predict rising CO2 concentrations must raise temperatures haven’t been overturned.
 
I hope you’ll forgive me if, after my previous experiences with you, I ask for the source material so that I can see what it actually says for myself.
Yes, I remember the earlier exchange as well. I think your position was “Yes they said it but it didn’t mean what it plainly said.” Anyway, here is the link:

youtube.com/watch?v=30IWpc7qZig

Ender
 
Monte: You’re posting some fun and interesting stuff; I’ve been enjoying it.

Ender
David Legates gave this great lecture showing how sea levels are NOT rising and how the enviros are coming up with one gross exaggeration after another.

Anyway, I keep looking for it, and not finding it on line.

But I do find interesting things in the meanwhile:

wgmd.com/?p=20195
 
Yes, I remember the earlier exchange as well. I think your position was “Yes they said it but it didn’t mean what it plainly said.”
Actually, my position was that they did mean what they plainly said, but what they plainly said to me was evidently different to what they plainly said to you because I read it knowing what they were talking about.

But that wasn’t what I meant. I was talking about the time you claimed that NOAA contradicted Phil Jones when it turned out that not only were they talking about two completely different things, they were actually trying to show that ten years of zero trend in ENSO-adjusted data was a perfectly normal occurrance during an overall warming trend and nothing should be read into it — in other words, warning against exactly what you were trying to do.

There was also no contradiction between NOAA’s finding that you would need at least 15 years of zero trend in ENSO-adjusted data to cast doubt on the model they were testing and other statements that you need at least 20 years of zero trend in actual temperature data to do the same thing (i.e. the ENSO-adjustment buys you about five years), despite your claims that Jones was being disingenuous or I was disagreeing with NOAA.

Then there was the time when you tried to use Dr. Landsea’s comments to support your claim that there was insufficient scientific basis for the IPCC to reach the conclusion that it had reached on tropical cyclones in AR4, when it turned out that what Landsea was actually objecting to was the IPCC’s refusal to state that Trenberth wasn’t speaking in their name when he gave a talk about tropical cyclones two years before the report was released, and instead they simply noted that he was speaking as an individual and that the IPCC could not control what scientists say. Furthermore, later publications by Landsea actually supported the conclusion that the IPCC actually reached.

But perhaps the most egregious was your claim that the 2001 IPCC report stated that no anthropogenic effect on climate had been identified, which you supported by quoting the first two sentences of the introduction on the section on attribution and completely ignoring the third and every subsequent sentence of that section and the actual claim that it made, which was that “most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities”! I don’t know how you expected to get away with that one, especially given the actual claim is so well known, but I’m sure you can appreciate why I now like to check everything you claim to be quoting.
Anyway, here is the link:
Sigh… I had assumed that you would know that I wouldn’t take anything that someone like Legates says at face value and that I wanted a link to the actual science.

So here’s what I actually thought you would do — provide the link to the actual paper: trs-new.jpl.nasa.gov/dspace/bitstream/2014/40958/1/07-1495.pdf

Here’s the relevant portion of the text for that figure:
Waliser et al:
Exhibiting poorer model agreements are runoff and (over ocean) cloud water content. For these quantities, not only is the physical process arguably more complex to model correctly but the observational foundation is more challenging. …] In the case of cloud water, the observations to date have simply been too indirect (i.e. remotely sensed), experimental or too sparse (i.e. in-situ) to provide a robust AOGCM constraint [e.g., Horva´th and Davies, 2007]. Thus, the greater model disagreement in cloud water, over for example precipitable water, is not only due to the challenge of the modeling clouds [Jakob, 2003; Randall et al., 2003] but also because the observational constraints have lacked robustness and/or been insufficiently defined which leaves models significant leeway in their representation.
OK, so the reason that the models have a pretty big range of values for this physical quantity is that it is poorly constrained by observation.

But the claim made in that presentation is that this therefore reduces certainty in the model predictions, in particular Hansen’s (who, as I already showed twice now, actually got the prediction right).

Given that H2O is “the most important greenhouse gas”, how can a model that assumes a concentration five times higher than “actual” still manage to predict global temperatures so well?

Well, the #1 answer is that Legates is being a little disingenuous.

Firstly he makes a big deal about how many places clouds pop up in the energy balance diagram @ 30 minutes into the presentation.

Notice how clouds are both positive and negative feedbacks?

Why do you think it is so hard to work out whether clouds are going to be a net positive or a net negative feedback as the globe warms?

It’s because the two effects nearly cancel each other out.

Now watch the bait-and-switch when Legates says:
Legates:
Remember when I said ‘water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas’? What do you think that model’s likely to do? Overstate warming tremendously.
The paper isn’t talking about “water vapour”, which is most certainly a positive feedback. The paper is talking about “cloud water over ocean”, which is, according to the latest science, likely to be a very weakly positive feedback (Christy actually thinks negative) but pretty much a wash.

In other words, the reason why it is hard for models to get it right is precisely because getting it wrong doesn’t really change the predictions.

Impressive bait-and-switch by Legates there. Did you pick it up?
 
Hansen should be fired:

algorelied.com/?p=176
So your support for the claim that “Hansen cherry picked his data and cooked the books by adjusting the data to suit his argument” is that Hansen appeared as an expert witness on the dangers of climate change in a court case? Even your own link says “Certainly Dr. Hansen has a body of work that is impressive, there is no disputing that.” But that’s precisely what you are disputing when you make those extremely serious allegations, aren’t you?

Hanson has also had all of his source code and all of his data in the public domain for years now — surely if you were right in your claims you could have actually demonstrated them, couldn’t you?
 
Are you on the email subscription list for this newsletter?

sepp.org/twtwfiles/2011/TWTW%202011-5-28.pdf

The current issue has a lot of stuff about the EPA.
They shouldn’t have any shortage of stuff they can publish — for example, they could replace “second-hand smoke” with “climate change” in the old articles that S. Fred Singer wrote attacking the EPA for “junk science” in the “tobacco debate”. Or perhaps the ozone hole, or radon, or asbestos, or pesticides. The language is exactly the same.

Sooner or later you might think that they must actually get the science right, and perhaps AGW just happens to be it, but I suspect that assuming “anything whose solution involves government regulation must be wrong” is a poor method of judging scientific work.
 
Really? How did he arrive at that conclusion? skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-intermediate.htm

I assume he has actual measurements to support his claim?
Ahhhh…I see, you are back to using skepticalscience links.😦

When skeptialscience - realclimate etc stop defending their positions by censorship - someone may take them serious.

I, for one, will not - until that time.

Just as, I don’t take anyone serious especially a self proclaimed scientist ] who thinks… this is the way of science - censorship.

By referring me others] to these links that censor opposing views / challenges to statements made by them…It makes me feel like you might not be up to debate…but allow them skepticalscience - realscience ], as your voice?

This is the biggest flaw in, "Authoritarian Science[ist] " - Censorship. Especially, in the AGW camp - as witnessed by many sources including their own admissions in climategate emails ]. 😦

Personally, I’d put better store into getting the History / Teachings of Catholicism from JW’s who didn’t /don’t censor opposing comments.

Surely, being a “scientist”, you can understand the problem of linking to such - and expecting anyone who can think and assimilate information logically… to not call you on it… the use of such “Authoritarian / draconian Science sources” ]…is indefensible.

IMO - it is an insult to intelligence - Yours and mine. :(😦
 
Even your own link says “Certainly Dr. Hansen has a body of work that is impressive, there is no disputing that.” But that’s precisely what you are disputing when you make those extremely serious allegations, aren’t you?
Are we cherry picking again? :D:D

It continues to say in the next sentence:
Thanks to him, Hansen ] GISS as a dataset is no longer impartial. We have potential bias from the gatekeeper of the data that can’t be separated from the data.
Hanson has also had all of his source code and all of his data in the public domain for years now — surely if you were right in your claims you could have actually demonstrated them, couldn’t you?
:rotfl::rotfl:

My science teacher and mom taught me one very good principle;

“You can’t get a clean floor mopping - using muddy water ! You have to clean out the muddy pail water and the mop - and start over.”

" When you taint a sample / slide and don’t start anew - you aren’t practicing science. You are practicing laziness"
Thanks to him, Hansen ] GISS as a dataset is no longer impartial. We have potential bias from the gatekeeper of the data that can’t be separated from the data.
algorelied.com/?p=176
 
Ahhhh…I see, you are back to using skepticalscience links.😦
Of course, it’s an excellent resource.
When skeptialscience - realclimate etc stop defending their positions by censorship - someone may take them serious.
Neither of them “defend their positions” by censorship — unlike, for example, WUWT, which is positively famous for it.

Anybody can see that Skeptical Science has many “skeptical” commenters — some of whom are notorious for spamming nearly every post with the same old arguments. Their censorship policy is very clear and is mostly concerned with abusive comments and unsubstantiated claims of conspiracy or malfeasance. As a consequence it’s the most science-centric and polite site I’m aware of, pro- and anti-science alike.

Heck, they even maintain a list of all the “skeptic” peer-reviewed scientific literature so you can quickly find the latest papers that you can use to prove them wrong! How many “skeptic” sites feature *pro-*AGW papers so prominently???

Feel free to prove me wrong, though — post a comment or a question there that you think shows a real flaw in the science and find out if you’re censored or not. You can post it here as well so we can see for ourselves what they censored if they do. No need for conspiracy theories when there are virtually unlimited avenues for you to prove what they’re not letting through.

Using RealClimate as an example is even funnier since they introduced the Bore Hole, where they publish all comments (other than spam or profanity) that they “censored” from the regular posts specifically so that nobody can accuse them of censorship! It’s an excellent resource because it shows all the abuse that they’ve been having to put up with all these years. Clearly some of the posters thought they could abuse the RC folks and nobody else would find out about it — they were actually relying on censorship to abuse with impunity.

Of course, none of this has any relevance whatsoever to the correctness of the science — it’s a red herring, pure and simple. Even if Skeptical Science and Real Climate did not allow comments on their posts at all they would still be fulfilling their goal, which is to explain the science to the public. There are no shortage of forums for debate.
Just as, I don’t take anyone serious especially a self proclaimed scientist ] who thinks… this is the way of science - censorship.
Then you would have missed out on the following proof that Legates was wrong about the sea levels not rising:

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/current/sl_ib_ns_global.png

That’s from the University of Colorado.

You would have also missed this:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/Sea-Level-1.gif

That’s from Church 2008.

And this:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/Sea-Level-2.gif

Not only is it continuing to rise, it’s accelerating.

All of this you would have known if you had actually bothered to follow the link.

Refusing to look at the actual science is not the way of science and I don’t take anyone seriously who fabricates excuses to bury their heads in the sand.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Denial_Cover.jpg

At least Legates tries to pretend the science supports him, even if he has to use 10-year-old papers or use bait-and-switch tactics to misrepresent what they say. You simply refuse to look.
 
Are we cherry picking again? :D:D
No — Anthony Watts’ claims of “potential bias” are no more credible than Monte’s. However, his acceptance that Hansen’s body of work is impressive and that nobody is denying that might carry some weight for someone like Monte, just like Anthony Watts’ recent paper that proves have a warming biasthe temperature record doesn’t despite all those pictures of thermometers next to A/C exhausts might carry some weight for people like you who believed him when he said that it did.

And I think there’s a word for making claims about “potential bias” and “tainted work” when you know very well that those claims can and have been thoroughly disproven, isn’t there?

The whole point about the source code and data being publicly available is so you can prove that there is no bias, no corruption, no cherry-picking, etc. Isn’t that what all those FOIA requests of the CRU were for? You have all that information for GISS, and yet you refuse to actually look at it for fear that it might prove your accusations wrong and instead continue to talk about “potential bias”.
My science teacher and mom taught me one very good principle;
“You can’t get a clean floor mopping - using muddy water ! You have to clean out the muddy pail water and the mop - and start over.”
" When you taint a sample / slide and don’t start anew - you aren’t practicing science. You are practicing laziness"
The problem with argument by analogy, of course, is that you need to prove that the anology itself is valid but in this case the water has been thoroughly proven to be clean. To assert that your analogy applies in the first place is simply begging the question.

In addition, there have been many independent attempts to “start over” that have all come up with the same results — including most recently, and most amusingly (because of the earlier claims that everyone else was doing it wrong and the support from Anthony Watts et al), Richard Muller and BEST. I assume you caught his testimony to Congress? 🙂

So, just to be clear:

  1. *]Hansen’s source code and data are publicly available and have been for years.

    *]Hansen’s temperature record has been validated again and again by many independent groups, including those starting with his source code and reimplementing it in a different language, and those starting completely from scratch.

    *]Even Anthony Watts has now proven that the warming trend is not an artificial product of UHI, siting issues, etc., after all.

    *]Hansen’s climate prediction way back in 1988 is a matter of public record and has been verified.

    The only new item in that list is #3, and if you were waiting for his approval to accept everything else in spite of the other points then that’s a pretty sad state of affairs, but even that was published before you and Monte made your claims about Hansen. So what’s your excuse?
 
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