L
lynnvinc
Guest
As a person in the social sciences & humanities & physical sciences (I’m an anthropologist), I find fables to be instructive. Like “The Straw that Broke the Camel’s Back” and “The Boy Who Cried Wolf.”Ok are you seriously suggesting here that the greenhouse effect violates the second law of thermodynamics? skepticalscience.com/Second-law-of-thermodynamics-greenhouse-theory.htm heck here is even something from a skeptic drroyspencer.com/2010/07/yes-virginia-cooler-objects-can-make-warmer-objects-even-warmer-still/ As for that equation I am still not really sure what you are talking about with this debunking but I did find this n3xus6.blogspot.com/2006/11/debate-over-good-guys-win.html as for the logarithmic claim I did find this response in a comment thread on realclimate. first the comment being reponded too in red Sorry, I was linking the 2 issues – the estimate of climate sensitivity and the added CO2 released from ecosystems. If the temperature response to CO2 is logarithmic, adding more CO2 will have diminishing effect. I also wonder if the infra-red absorption bands can become saturated? Then the response in blue The logarithmic effect is already incorporated in radiative transfer models. And a “diminishing effect” does not necesessarily mean a “small effect,” if that’s what you’re getting at. Look at it this way: we all agree that the effect of doubling CO2 will be substantial, and any feedback that accelerates CO2 release will make the day of doubling come sooner, giving ecosystems and society less time to adapt, and requiring tighter emissions targets if one is to avoid doubling but really it seems to me that the scientists are accepting that the relationship between co2 and temperature rise is logarithmic some more stuff from skeptical science again, skepticalscience.com/The-CO2-Temperature-correlation-over-the-20th-Century.html
As for no observational evidence. Well that just isn;t true! I have posted in my last post links that show pretty clearly that it is warming. But now to show some evidence that the warming has anything to do with co2 and humans.
First another nice post from skeptical science skepticalscience.com/Empirical-evidence-that-humans-are-causing-global-warming.html this link goes into more detail about the evidence that shows that greenhouse gases are the main culprit in the recent warming,. skepticalscience.com/How-do-we-know-CO2-is-causing-warming.html skepticalscience.com/Are-humans-too-insignificant-to-affect-global-climate.html but really the claim of no observational evidence is completely false. As I have shown in these threads time and time again. I mean I guess I am curious but have you ever even tried to look for the evidence for AGW? Or are you just believing one what seems to be a popular “skeptic” claim that AGW is totally based on models? Cause i think if you would look at my links and look further you would find plenty. Also skeptical science has a nice list of commonly used arguments by skeptics which is very useful skepticalscience.com/argument.php But plain and simple let me put it this way I donlt think that humans are a major cause of the recent warming because some politican told me or whatever. I believe it because I have read the evidence and looked into the issue. I am no expert by any means. But with my limited understanding the evidence seems pretty solid. And I used to be someone that was somewhat skeptical of AGW. I didn;t disbelieve it totally but for awhile thought claims were being greatly over exaggerated. Though to be fair the media can over exaggerate things and that is where I used to and probably the majority of people get there info on AGW. Which is not a good place to get it for the most part.
It is not the first 100 inches of flooding that does the most harm; it is the last 20 inches that goes over and breaches the levee. It is not the shift from cat 1 to cat 3 hurricane that does the most damage, but going just a bit more than cat 3 intense that can do much more damage.
Just that one extra degree during a heatwave could kill a person (actually it is the warmer nights, the increasing minimum diurnal temps, which are a very good signal of GW, and also which do more harm to people and plants, than the increasing maximum diurnal temps for now – tho those will also being doing drastic harms as the warming continues…once we’re out of the solar minimum and/or the industrial aerosols are cleaned up).
Also there is the issue of positive feedbacks kicking in – tipping points, both in climate and in other areas of the ecosystem. The warming causing release of more GHGs, causing more warming, causing more releases. The carbon gun in fully loaded as Hansen points out in his book, Storms of My Granchildren, and the GHG releases from nature could be really tremendous. So log-schmog, we’re pulling the trigger of a very dangerous weapon by our initial “straw” of warming. ((And BTW, I knew about the log function – as if people don’t know about it.))
In any case, while scientists are overly reticent in their claims re AGW, needing 90 to 95% confidence, because they can’t afford to be the boy who called wolf, and harm their reputations; we cannot afford to the the villagers who got eaten up…
I might doubt a scientist who says the trichlorethylene in the water did not cause the leukemia of the 10 children in a neighbohood of Small Town, USA (who knows, they might be getting kickbacks from the company that dumped the stuff), but I sure am going to believe scientists who say there is a problem that can harm life on earth – esp since I already understood the natural greenhouse effect decades before I came to understand AGW is likely happening.