Catholicism and Climate Change

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John21652,

Just because thousands and thousands of scientists in different fields working on different problems all arrive at a conclusion that you disagree with does not make them members of a vast conspiracy; and just because a handful of scientists agree with a belief you hold does not make them right.

Hal Lewis has, to the best of my knowledge, never published a paper on climate change, and the only publications I can confirm he contributed to date to the 1980s and before. That puts him into the second category from the left in this graph:
Lewis is an Emeritus Professor of Physics at the University of California and a scientist of distinctionn he resigned in protest at the attempt by the APS to shut down debate about its endorsement of anthropogenic global warming. It is a magisterial rebuke. Yet you do your best to denigrate his character and scientific credentials. You, against him!! What a joke. An Emeritus Professor of Physics, according to you, is not worthy of being labelled as a true climate scientist. That opinion reaks of self serving, vainglorious twaddle. You just can’t accept that a man of letters has the moral courage to stand against an obvious corruption. You need to read this article -
Go Green Or We’ll Kill Your Kids
For that is where this nutty eco-facism is leading us.

Instead of scouring the net looking for “truths” that support your rediculous myths, read instead the truth according to e real climate scientist Global Warming, The Cold Hard Facts, which tells us Global Warming, as we think we know it, doesn’t exist.
 
Lewis is an Emeritus Professor of Physics at the University of California and a scientist of distinctionn he resigned in protest at the attempt by the APS to shut down debate about its endorsement of anthropogenic global warming. It is a magisterial rebuke.
Umm… You do know what “Emeritus Professor” means, don’t you? Here’s a hint – he’s 87 years old. I chose not to mention that before because it might lead to unfortunate stereotyping; instead I simply pointed out his lack of qualification in this matter and the flaws in what he said. But don’t over-state what we’re talking about here: A retired academic, with a history of trying to get the APS to change its stance on a subject he has no known expertise in to be more in line with his own, spat the dummy when he couldn’t get any support for his position.
Yet you do your best to denigrate his character and scientific credentials.
Your entire post amounts to an appeal to authority. It is entirely proper to verify his credentials to see whether he actually is an authority on the subject at hand or not.

If you think that pointing out the facts of his publication record “denigrate his character”, then it is you, not I, that is doing the denigration.
You, against him!! What a joke.
Nice.

Apart from the fact you have no idea who I am, you might like to consider the fact that I have deliberately avoided appealing to myself as an authority. What I did was point out (a) he is not an authority on the subject, and (b) what he actually said is clearly incorrect.
An Emeritus Professor of Physics, according to you, is not worthy of being labelled as a true climate scientist.
A long-retired professor of nuclear physics with no record of ever having worked in the climate science field and no record of any work for over 30 years is obviously not a true climate scientist. The very fact that you think he is “worthy” shows that you have absolutely no idea how to judge qualifications.
That opinion reaks of self serving, vainglorious twaddle.
The peer-reviewed scientific research that I pointed to that ascertained the AGW stance of various groups of people used easily-understood and justifiable objective measures to categorise those people.

Using those categorisations, Lewis falls into the “Non-publishers/Non-climatologists” category, because he is a retired scientist who is not actively publishing anything – and who hasn’t done for a very long time – and who has never published anything in the domain of climate science.

If you don’t like it, tough – it’s still true, and offensive rants don’t change that.
You just can’t accept that a man of letters has the moral courage to stand against an obvious corruption.
A “man of letters”? The only reason why you are so obsessed with building up his reputation is because you think he agrees with you. There are plenty of scientists who are obviously more qualified, yet you do your best to denigrate their character and their scientific credentials!

I did nothing of the sort. I merely pointed out where he stands as an authority, I pointed out that over 20% of the scientists in that category are also unconvinced, and I pointed out the obvious errors in his argument.

Have you attempted to argue that he was correct at all? No. Instead your entire response is to insult me for daring to point out the objective facts about your newfound favourite scientist. If the “corruption” is so “obvious” why are you having such a hard time providing any evidence of it at all?

So just how distinguished is he? Well, prior to this APS resignation letter coming out, he didn’t even have a Wikipedia biography. When the letter was published, a new Wikipedia entry was added for him that entirely consisted of that letter! en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Harold_Lewis&oldid=390334018

As of the time of writing, they have managed to do a little bit of background digging and come up with precisely two sentences. en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Harold_Lewis&oldid=390382254

Now compare that to the distinguished career of those you so freely choose to denigrate:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hansen

146 papers on climate science, with his top four papers gathering 2,862 citations between them.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Jones_%28climatologist%29

724 papers on climate science, with his top four papers gathering 2,139 citations between them.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Schneider

683 papers on climate science, with his top four papers gathering 1,838 citations between them.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_E._Mann

266 papers on climate science, with his top four papers gathering 2,014 citations between them.

Harold Lewis: no papers on climate science (unless we count his resignation letter to APS!), and therefore obviously no citations (unless we count the rabid copying of his resignation letter all over the blogosphere by those who wear their scientific ignorance on their sleeves!).
 
For that is where this nutty eco-facism is leading us.
[sarcasm]
Yes, because pro-AGW scientists are obviously planning to explode everybody who refuses to cut their carbon emissions.
[/sarcasm]

Apparently the world of science can now be overturned by somebody having a sick sense of humour. What a surreal world we live in.
Instead of scouring the net looking for “truths” that support your rediculous myths, read instead the truth according to e real climate scientist Global Warming, The Cold Hard Facts, which tells us Global Warming, as we think we know it, doesn’t exist.
Right, because a guy who has ten papers on climate science that gathered a whopping 40 citations between them and hasn’t published a single paper on climate science in a peer-reviewed journal in over 18 years is a real climate scientist. Unlike those listed above. Why? Purely because he agrees with you!

Does he have any scientific credibility at all?

Like other senior scientists, he charges that Prof. Ball’s arguments are a grab bag of irrelevancies and falsehoods: “Ball says that our climate models do not [account for the warming effects of] water vapour. That’s absurd. They all do.”

Likewise, he says, Prof. Ball’s claims that climate change could be explained by variations in the earth’s orbit or by sunspots are discounted by widely available data.

Many of Prof. Ball’s other arguments don’t stand up to scrutiny. Consider the hockey-stick graph: He was right that the U.S. Academies of Science had delivered a review of climate science to Congress. But their report concluded that temperatures in the last 25 years really have been the highest in 400 years. Moreover, the panelists assured reporters that there was no evidence at all that the Mann team cherry-picked its data - completely contradicting what Prof. Ball told his audience in Comox.

“What Ball is doing is not about science,” says Prof. Weaver. “It is about politics.”
charlesmontgomery.ca/mrcool.html

Canadian denier-in-chief, the retired geographer Dr. Tim Ball, got seriously (though not physically) roughed up last week in a presentation to the University of Victoria Young Conservatives Club.

Apparently expecting a room full of docile Stephen Harper fans, Ball found himself instead in front of a group of burgeoning climate scientists - young people who were quick to challenge him when he said things that were pointedly untrue.

For example, after describing the effect of Milankovitch cycles on climate, Ball told the students (at 56:24) that these predictable changes in Earth’s orbit and tilt are not included in modern climate models.

“None of this is included in the computer models that are used to tell you that the climate is changing. It’s not even included. The models they’re doing here on campus. They’re not in there. Sorry.”

But at 1:01:25, a student responds: “We do include it, though. I am with the UVic climate lab and we do include it in our models. It’s a standard parameter.”

The conversation, and the attached recording, went on for two-and-a-half painful hours, with Ball dismissing all climate science as a fiction promulgated by a small group of ideologues and the students - laptops in hand - challenging and dismissing his arguments on the basis of ready information.
desmogblog.com/tim-ball-concert-battered-facts

He doesn’t even have a Wikipedia page. Reason?
Code:
* Delete - fails WP:PROF. No evidence of high impact scholarly work (criterion #1); no evidence of highly prestigious awards (criterion #2); not an elected member of the National Academy, Royal Society or similar body (criterion #3); no evidence that his work as made "significant impact in the area of higher education" (criterion #4); not a "distinguished professor" or holder of a named chair (criterion #5); not been a university president, chancellor or held a similar position (criterion #6); has arguably made a small, but not a "substantial impact outside academia in their academic capacity" (criterion #7); does not appear to have been editor in chief of a major journal (criterion #8); isn't in literature or fine arts (criterion #9).

  He objectively fails 8 of the 9 criteria and, in my opinion, fails criterion #7. Even if he squeaks past on that criterion, WP:PROF sets a minimum standard for inclusion. There's very little coverage of his actual academic achievements which would be, of course, be the underlying basis for any notability under criterion #7. Guettarda (talk) 15:05, 27 September 2010 (UTC)

* Delete According to the ISI Web of Science he has five six peer reviewed publications and his h-index is 3. I've known grad students with more significant scientific track records than that. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 16:00, 27 September 2010 (UTC)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Articles_for_deletion/Timothy_Ball

He filed a lawsuit against the Calgary Herald for publishing a letter pointing out that he lied about his academic record. (The University of Winnipeg has never had a climatology department – Ball was a geography professor!) In their Statement of Defence they said “The Plantiff (Dr. Ball) is viewed as a paid promoter of the agenda of the oil and gas industry rather than as a practicing scientist.” Ball withdrew his lawsuit.

Let’s face it: If he wasn’t making comments you find agreeable, there’s absolutely no reason you would neve know about him, let alone be calling him a “real climate scientist”.
 
[sarcasm]
Yes, because pro-AGW scientists are obviously planning to explode everybody who refuses to cut their carbon emissions.
[/sarcasm]
It’s called Green Thuggery. Examples abound on the internet. And in real life.

Your zealotry is showing. badly. Your use of the derogatory word “denier” shows us that. The term “denier” has been used for many years to denigrate those who are holocaust deniers. The AGW brigade have tried to use that word to lump in anyone who is sceptical of the AGW theory into the holocaust denier school of thought. What hypocrisy. You accuse me of denigrating so called climate scientists yet you willingly label Ball as a “denier”. You are a cherry picker.

Now lets have a look at some of the cherries you chose to hang your hat on -
James Hanson - condemned by his own NASA supervisor as having brought disgrace onto that esteemed organisation. Dr. John S. Theon is his name and he’s retired too. He has said the models are unreliable and he is also one of your “deniers”. No doubt the fact he is retired disqualifies him in your eyes as being an ‘expert’. Do so at your own risk. Hansen, by the way, is also on record as saying oil company executives should be tried for crimes against humanity. Talk about the loony left!!

Michael Mann - Oh, what a choice. His infamous ‘Hockey Stick’ is just so discredited. He failed to account for the Mediaevil Warm period and the Little Ice Age and he then used the northern hemisphere to extrapolate his findings onto a globalm scale. Oh, he also used pine tree rings as proxy data even though it was known they grew extra fast with Nitrogen applications during the twentieth Century.

Phil Jones - poor man. The Climatgate email scandal shredded his goose. End of story, really.

Now lets have a look at the type of “intellectuals” this “science” is attracting.
Read about three of them right here - Robert Mugabe, Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales. Such paragons of human virtue. Mugabe in particular has raped his nation and his people and yet still blames the west for global warming as the cause of his nations ills. The logic of this massive AGW scam shows when people like this thug adopt it. It’s all Green Thuggery and anti capitalism and anti Christianity…
 
:flowers:
Thank you for this post - and this is why the Church is speaking to the moral issue - the needs of the poor around the world. 🙂
:rotfl::rotfl:

Again, Show us, the IPCC, UN, AGW , scheme that actually helps the poor.
 
You still don’t get it.
Absolutely!!!
Rather than hide behind vague and emotive words, simply state the facts. If your conclusions about what those facts imply are correct, others will come to the same conclusions. You don’t need to over-dramatise to support your case if your case has merit.
A rose by any-other name…is still a rose. Sabotage by any name is still sabotage…
And I thought I had been clear – just because something can be described by some general term doesn’t always mean it should be; using vague and emotionally-laden words instead of stating the facts makes it appear you are trying to generate an emotional response that you don’t think the facts alone would generate.
Facts they committed criminality trespass against a legally operating business. They vandalised and damaged property not belonging to them. They committed these acts with full intent and malice to disrupt. Those acts are defined as sabotage.
If the claim that “Hansen endorses sabotage” boils down to ay statement that “Hansen is willing to testify as an expert witness in cases where protestors knowingly disrupt the normal operations of coal-fired power plants and even damage them by painting graffiti on them” then I’m afraid the reality is quite different to the picture the original claim painted in my mind
This arguement is so full of nonsense. :rotfl::rotfl:

There must be at least several different means to commit abortion - and so-called reasons to support the acts of abortion Note: that the name of killing innocent life in this manner - still is defined as ABORTION ]. ANYONE who testifies in favor of Abortion - Supports Abortion!!!🤷
. If that’s the best you can do to support your opinion of Hansen then it helps me calibrate your views a lot more than it helps me judge Hansen’s.
Actually, it was your senseless DEFENSE of Mr. Hansens support of sabotage acts, that not only didn’t help him…,it didn’t help your credibility, with me, as well.
Because there are no “outlandish views”. I haven’t seen any evidence from you of anything other than suggestions that just because Greenpeace donate money to scientific research there must be something nefarious going on, while at the same time ignoring the blantant requests for money from vested interests by the people who create the arguments that you copy-and-paste without understanding.
First off, you seem to have a bad habit of omissions. You forgot WWF contributions, Friends of the Earth contributions etc etc…Not just in money BUT to the IPCC processes.

Second the use of Circular reasoning and appeal to authority arguments, you use are amazing. 😃

I thought you believed in AGW - If so…surely, you can debate it, without needing to resort to these fallacies?

You seem obsessed , that someone outside the AGW camp appealed “lobbied” for money.

Then you try to “hook” CRU - IPCC to your obsession.
I’ll try to break it down for you, in hopes you can understand the difference.

“To whom much is given…much is owed”…CRU - IPCC are the “GIVEN” - thus, they “owe” more to keep themselves - their science… ABOVE “lobbists”, “Activists”, involvements.

You once said something like, “Scientists often lack personal relationship skills”…I will add…Any scientist who can not see The dangers of associating their Science / Scientific Body to “activist groups” is indeed, impairing their prospective.

But you try to imply that their associations are strictly innocent. If this be so…why not “lobby” from Marie Stopes International or Planned Parenthood? They say ], They care about the environment, and poor.

Why? I’ll tell you why. Because people like you couldn’t try to explain those groups… away - AND they know this. Although, the UN absolutely as well as many outspoken AGW’ers ] support population control efforts
i.e., UN is partners with Marie Stopes International Google it ].

Again, death by their own hands.

Supporting the Industry of AGW, doesn’t equate to supporting an individual.
Sure I have. You must have missed my posts. Which acts outlined in the Climategate emails do you think still need explaining?
I’ve admitted, that you’ve tried to excuse.
I haven’t tried to excuse them of anything. I agreed that they withheld information from people they didn’t want to share information with. That’s a simple matter of fact.
😃
AND in the next breath…you make excuses for breaking FOIA.
It’s also a simple matter of fact that they did have confidentiality agreements with certain data providers, which have been publicly released so everyone can see that it’s true, but I actually see that as besides the point
BUT only AFTER climategate emails.
It doesn’t particularly bother me that they refused to co-operate with certain people because nobody needs that information to verify their results and those people were not asking for the information so that they could verify their results.
Again, to you, it seems, the “Ends justify the means”…No matter what the requester wanted it for…They decided to violate laws.
If there was no other way to check what they were saying and they were asking us to trust what they were saying anyway then I would have reservations, but the simple fact of the matter is that anybody can check what they have been saying and they have been able to since the very beginning.
Another ommission? From the beginning? I would say 1990 was close to the beginning - Can you produce the 1990 Jones - Wang data?

What did it take to find out how many papers referred to 1990 Jones - Wang data Appeal to authority, again ]? FOIA and a call of fraud by Mr Keenen.

continued
 
I think it is better for people to independently analyse the raw data and arrive at their own conclusions than to download somebody else’s source code, run it once or twice, verify it gives the same results, and move on.
I think, it’s better for Scientists to have the Raw Data and codes available. When they say they can’t find it in their own offices / institutions.??? The Data and Codes they depend on.
The bottom line is this: If the method described in the papers could not be applied to publicly-available data to derive the same results, then we would have reason to be sceptical and we would want to investigate to find out why.
The truth is, the codes and “raw data” we have from such as Mr Mann…IPCC…,CRU…Jones -Wang … HAVE indeed, proved worthy of questioning. By the Agw’S OWN ADMISSIONS.
But since they can,
Produce the 1990 Jones - Wang data
and have been applied multiple times by many different people (including “skeptics”), the only motive for bothering them is disruption and I have no sympathy if it’s unsuccessful.
BUT but but…you excuse disruption tactics by such as Saboteurs…Criminal Trespassers…etc etc ALL ILLEGAL acts…AND see LEGAL acts of requesting FOI, disruptive…Your double standards are AMAZING, to me.

As for me, the more you say supporting the cause of AGW… The more reasons I have to question. You and The AGW hypothesis.
 
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hansen

146 papers on climate science, with his top four papers gathering 2,862 citations between them.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Jones_%28climatologist%29

724 papers on climate science, with his top four papers gathering 2,139 citations between them.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Schneider

683 papers on climate science, with his top four papers gathering 1,838 citations between them.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_E._Mann

266 papers on climate science, with his top four papers gathering 2,014 citations between them.
As long as Connolley I see he’s back to his old tricks ] Is associated with Wikipedia…How much is truth?

Your appeals to authority once again fails… How many of those papers refer / cite Jones - Wang Data cited? Data that can not be reproducible as cited.

You see, "published " Your attempt at "appeal to authority " ]…depends on ABSOLUTE TRUTH.

We see by Jones - Wang and other climategate and other IPCC papers / claims…Published doesn’t equate to TRUTH. As a fact the TRUTH about the Jones - Wang data was found out by an unpublished person, I believe. :p:p
 
Interesting reads
I explained that the 3% statistic is the one we should be dealing with conceptually, rather than what some people seem to be interested in, which is what portion of the Earth’s greenhouse effect is due to CO2. I argued that the answer to that question, which has been recently addressed in a new paper by [Schmidt et al.](http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/notyet/(name removed by moderator)ress_Schmidt_et_al.pdf), really tells us very little regarding the impact of adding more CO2 to the atmosphere. But what many people don’t realize is that the 33 deg. C of surface warming is not actually a measure of the greenhouse warming – it represents the balance between TWO competing effects: a greenhouse warming effect of about 60 deg. C (the so-called “pure radiative equilibrium” case), and a convective cooling effect of about 30 deg. C. When these two are combined, we get the real-world observed “radiative-convective equilibrium” case.
This has been known since at least 1964 (Manabe and Strickler, 1964). It was also discussed in Dick Lindzen’s 1990 paper, Some Coolness Regarding Global Warming, which is when I became aware of its significance.
Why is this Important?
When global warming is discussed, the warming effect of greenhouse gases is obviously of prime interest. But it is seldom if ever mentioned that about 50% of the surface warming influence of greenhouse gases has been short-circuited by the cooling effects of weather, as just discussed.
When Danny Braswell and I did similar calculations in 1997 to better understand the physics, we found that 1 deg. C of surface warming was true even for the pure radiative equilibrium case (no convective cooling by weather processes). This would mean that the REAL enhancement of the greenhouse effect with 2XCO2 is really only about 1.5%, not 3%, since the natural greenhouse effect is trying to warm the surface by over 60 deg. C, not by 33 deg. C.
Is this Simple Evidence of Negative Feedback?
These climate basics, which have been known since the 1960s, also raises an intriguing question: If the surface warming effect of 2XCO2 before surface cooling by convection is 1 deg. C, and (as even the IPCC knows) 50% of that natural greenhouse warming is then short-circuited by convection, might this then tell us that negative feedbacks in the climate system can be expected to reduce anthropogenic global warming to only 0.5 deg. C?
I believe this is entirely possible.
How could this happen, since there is so much evidence that water vapor feedback is positive? Because, even if water vapor feedback is positive, an increase in the solar shading effect of clouds (negative cloud feedback) could more than overwhelm the positive water vapor feedback, leading to little net warming.
The IPCC already admits feedbacks due to low clouds are the least understood. Indeed, the evidence presented in Spencer and Braswell (2010), at face value, would suggest this could happen.
We already know that the net effect of clouds is to cool the climate system in response to solar heating. Are we to believe that cloud changes turn into a warming influence when temperatures get a little bit higher? Well, that’s what all of the IPCC coupled climate models do now.
The Importance of Convective Cooling Versus Greenhouse Warming
I sometimes get e-mails asking why I don’t mention convection as a cooling mechanism in the context of global warming. Folks, I used to be virtually the only one speaking out on the subject. For years I harped on this issue.
The reason why I have been recently defending the basic physics of the greenhouse effect is because I think the credibility of those who claim that the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere cannot be increased (or doesn’t even exist) is compromised when they object to something that – as far as I have seen – has no alternative explanation.
I’m always upon open to new theories, but as I have said before, until someone puts their alternative physics into an energy-conserving model of the vertical temperature profile of the atmosphere, which then produces the present-day temperature profile as current models do, it is little more than hand-waving.
drroyspencer.com/2010/09/why-33-deg-c-for-the-earths-greenhouse-effect-is-misleading/
 
Are water vapors actually “positives”?
Five Reasons Why Water Vapor Feedback Might Not Be Positive
Code:
          September 14th, 2010 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.                                Since it has been a while since I have addressed water vapor  feedback, and I am now getting more questions about it, I thought this  would be a good time to revisit the issue and my opinions on the  subject.
Positive water vapor feedback is probably the most “certain” and important of the feedbacks in the climate system in the minds of mainstream climate researchers. Weak warming caused by more carbon dioxide will lead to more water vapor in the atmosphere, which will then amplify the weak warming through water vapor’s role as the atmosphere’s primary greenhouse gas.
Positive water vapor feedback makes sense intuitively. Warmer air masses, on average, contain more water vapor. Warmer air is associated with greater surface evaporation rates, which is the ultimate source of almost all atmospheric water vapor.
And since water vapor is the atmosphere’s main greenhouse gas, most scientists have reasonably inferred that climate warming will be enhanced by increasing water vapor amounts. After all, water vapor feedback is positive in all of the IPCC climate models, too.
But when one looks at the details objectively, it is not so obvious that water vapor feedback in the context of long-term climate change is positive. Remember, it’s not the difference between warmer tropical air masses and cooler high-latitude air masses that will determine water vapor feedback…its how those air masses will each change over time in response to more carbon dioxide. Anything that alters precipitation processes during that process can cause either positive or negative water vapor feedback.
Here are some of those details.
drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/evaporation-precipitation1.jpg
1) Evaporation versus Precipitation
The average amount of water vapor in the atmosphere represents a balance between two competing processes: (1) surface evaporation (the source), and (2) precipitation (the sink). While we know that evaporation increases with temperature, we don’t know very much about how the efficiency of precipitation systems changes with temperature.
The latter process is much more complex than surface evaporation (see Renno et al., 1994), and it is not at all clear that climate models behave realistically in this regard. In fact, the models just “punt” on this issue because our understanding of precipitation systems is just not good enough to put something explicit into the models.
Even cloud resolving models, which can grow individual clouds, have gross approximations and assumptions regarding the precipitation formation process.
drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/atmos-hydro-cycle-small.jpg
2) Negative Water vapor Feedback Can Occur Even with a Water Vapor Increase
Most atmospheric water vapor resides in the lowest levels, in the ‘turbulent boundary layer’, while the water vapor content of the free troposphere is more closely tied to precipitation processes. But because the outgoing longwave radiation is so much more sensitive to small changes in upper-layer humidity especially at low humidities (e.g. see Spencer & Braswell, 1997), it is possible to have a net increase in total integrated water vapor, but negative water vapor feedback from a small decrease in free-tropospheric humidity. See #4 (below) for observational support for this possibility.
**
3) Cause Versus Effect**
Just because we find that unusually warm years have more water vapor in both the boundary layer and free troposphere does not mean that the warming caused the moistening.
There are a variety of processes (e.g. tropospheric wind shear causing changes in precipitation efficiency) which can in turn alter the balance between evaporation and precipitation, which will then cause warming or cooling as a RESULT OF the humidity change – rather than the other way around.
This cause-versus-effect issue has been almost totally ignored in feedback studies, and is analogous to the situation when estimating cloud feedbacks, the subject of our most recent paper.
Similar to our cloud feedback paper, evidence of causation in the opposite direction is the de-correlation between temperature and humidity in the real world versus in climate models (e.g. Sun et al., 2001).
drroyspencer.com/2010/09/five-reasons-why-water-vapor-feedback-might-not-be-positive/
 
Continued
4) Evidence from Radiosondes
There is some evidence that free tropospheric vapor has decreased in recent decades (e.g. the Paltridge et al., 2009 analysis of the NCEP Reanalysis dataset) despite this being a period of surface warming and humidifying in the boundary layer. Miskolczi (2010) used the radiosonde data which provide the main (name removed by moderator)ut to the NCEP reanalysis to show that the resulting cooling effect of a decrease in vapor has approximately counterbalanced the warming influence of increasing CO2 over the same period of time, leading to a fairly constant infrared opacity (greenhouse effect).
Of course, water vapor measurements from radiosondes are notoriously unreliable, but one would think that if there was a spurious drying from a humidity sensor problem that it would show up at all altitudes, not just in the free troposphere. The fact that it switches sign right where the turbulent boundary layer pushes up against the free troposphere (around 850 mb, or 5,000 ft.) seems like too much of a coincidence.
  1. The Missing “Hot Spot”
    Most people don’t realize that the missing tropospheric “hot spot” in satellite temperature trends is potentially related to water vapor feedback. One of the most robust feedback relationships across the IPCC climate models is that those models with the strongest positive water vapor feedback have the strongest negative lapse rate feedback (which is what the “hot spot” would represent). So, the lack of this negative lapse rate feedback signature in the satellite temperature trends could be an indirect indication of little (or even negative) water vapor feedback in nature.
Conclusion
While it seems rather obvious intuitively that a warmer world will have more atmospheric water vapor, and thus positive water vapor feedback, I’ve just listed the first 5 reasons that come to my mind why this might not be the case.
I am not saying that’s what I necessarily believe. I will admit to having waffled on this issue over the years, but that’s because there is evidence on both sides of the debate.
At a minimum, I believe the water vapor feedback issue is more complicated than most mainstream researchers think it is.
 
It’s called Green Thuggery. Examples abound on the internet. And in real life.
Then it’s quite a surprise that you didn’t provide any examples of scientists trying to blow people up for not cutting their carbon emissions.
Your zealotry is showing. badly.
In contrast to yours, which is showing exceedingly well.
Your use of the derogatory word “denier” shows us that. The term “denier” has been used for many years to denigrate those who are holocaust deniers.
Oh, please. Are you really so desperate to avoid addressing the substance of the argument that you will feign offence at a word I didn’t even use? Or would you rather people thought you couldn’t even tell that text was quoted despite me indenting it and putting the URL where it came from immediately afterwards?

I have to assume that not only did you not bother following the link, but you never actually listened to the recording of Ball’s presentation, either. It’s a shame because it’s really quite funny – he clearly expected to be talking to people who were, well, like you, frankly, but instead found himself talking to a group of not only scientifically literate students, but scientifically literate students who were actually working on the very things he was trying his best to misrepresent.

This exchange is hilarious:

NOTE FOR JOHN: THE FOLLOWING IS QUOTED TEXT!

“Here’s what Maurice Strong did with the IPCC: he defined a changing climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity. Don’t look at what nature’s doing, only at what the human causes are.”

Student: (unintelligible)

Ball: “Yes, but they don’t look at the natural climate variability.”

Student sotto voce “not true, we look at natural variation”

Ball, offering a new slide: “This is the definition produced by the United Nations Environment Program which was then adopted by the IPCC. This is the definition of what they’re directed to look at. They’re directed to only look at climate change that is due to human activity.”

Student: “What about that whole second half (of the definition printed on the slide): ‘in addition to natural climate variability.’”

Ball: “Yeah, but they don’t do that.”

Student: “But it just says to do it.”

Ball: “You look at the list of forcings they have; it’s only those forcings caused by human activity.”

Student: “You’re saying that volcanoes are caused by humans?”

Ball: “Well exactly. The volcanoes is one and look at the thing I showed you with Milankovich.”

Student: “Yeah, but the IPCC accounts for volcanic activity AND Milankovich cycles.”

Ball: “They identify them, but they do not consider them in their models ….”

Student: “They certainly do ….”

Ball: “No then don’t ….”

Student: “Yes they do: I run models … ((interrupted)”

END OF QUOTED TEXT.

Then he tries to change the subject to aerosols but a girl unsuccessfully tries to get him to go back to his previous point about Milankovitch cycles and concede that he was clearly wrong. He claims to not understand the point being made.
The AGW brigade have tried to use that word to lump in anyone who is sceptical of the AGW theory into the holocaust denier school of thought. What hypocrisy. You accuse me of denigrating so called climate scientists yet you willingly label Ball as a “denier”. You are a cherry picker.
For someone with such a tenuous grasp on the matters at hand, you are very quick to accuse others of malfeasance.

For the record, the reason I have been using silly constructions like “Anti-AGW” is precisely to avoid stupid arguments like this. I find it ridiculous that we have become so politically correct these days that a perfectly valid and accurate description of someone’s attitude cannot be used because the same word was also used for something else in the past, but I have been willing to ignore that for the sake of focussing on the issues. I did not count on the level of desperation some people obviously have to feel offended.
Now lets have a look at some of the cherries you chose to hang your hat on -
Yes, let’s. There is a reason I chose those people – they are exactly the same people that people like you should be regarding with awe and instead feel qualified to judge despite having absolutely no idea what you are talking about.
James Hanson - condemned by his own NASA supervisor as having brought disgrace onto that esteemed organisation.
First fact check: Was John S. Theon actually Hansen’s supervisor?

Hansen responded to Theon’s attack by saying: “John Theon never had any supervisory authority over me. I remember that he was in the bureaucracy at NASA Headquarters, but I cannot recall having any interactions with him. His claim of association is misleading, to say the least. What he can legitimately say is that he had a reasonably high position in the Headquarters bureaucracy.” (Note to John: The stuff in quotes is a quote.)

Theon responded by saying: “I was, in effect, Hansen’s supervisor because I had to justify his funding, allocate his resources, and evaluate his results. I did not have the authority to give him his annual performance evaluation.” (Note to John: The stuff in quotes is a quote.)

In other words, Theon was a money man at NASA HQ who administered project funding. If you have to say you are “in effect” X, then it means you are not in reality X.

That sure makes a difference, eh? Suddenly he goes from Hansen’s “boss” whom one would assume would have intimite knowledge of him and his activities to being an administrator in a different state who Hansen cannot even recall interacting with.
 
Dr. John S. Theon is his name and he’s retired too. He has said the models are unreliable and he is also one of your “deniers”.
Strangely, when he was actually still working at NASA he had this to say:

QUOTE FROM JOHN S. THEON:

Undoubtedly, humankind is affecting the environment. Inadvertent climate system changes brought about by mass loadings of carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), methane, etc., have thrust global change into the limelight. Radiative budget effects (i.e., greenhouse gases and global warming) and ozone depletion in the stratosphere certainly have heightened public awareness; however, climate change goes far beyond these fashionable concerns. The scientific community has to confront the myriad pieces that make up the climate puzzle. Scientists must discern the difference between natural and human-induced change, and decision makers must place the pieces in a manner that balances scientific recommendation against the demands of a higher population and an improved standard of living, which are heavily taxing the Earth’s resources. be quantified and incorporated into climate models.

END OF QUOTE.

For some reason, after 15 years of not being involved with the science, he suddenly doesn’t like models any more – the tools used to “discern the difference between natural and human-induced change”.
No doubt the fact he is retired disqualifies him in your eyes as being an ‘expert’. Do so at your own risk.
As Hansen himself said, “You should investigate his scientific contributions to evaluate the degree to which his opinions might be listened to.” (That was a quote, BTW.)

Have you done that?

If he isn’t speaking as a scientific authority, and he wasn’t Hansen’s actual supervisor (as opposed to his “in effect” supervisor because he was an administrator responsible for allocating money that ended up in Hansen’s budget), and he clearly had a different view of the science when he was still in some way connected to it, why should we treat him as an expert now?

Oh, yes – because he says something you like.
Hansen, by the way, is also on record as saying oil company executives should be tried for crimes against humanity. Talk about the loony left!!
No – he is quoted as saying that chief executives who actively spread doubt and misinformation about global warming in the same way that tobacco companies did about smoking and cancer should be put on trial. In other words, it’s not wrong to be unconvinced, but it’s wrong to know the truth and lie to the people about it for profit.

You, in contrast, think that kind of behaviour is perfectly OK?
Michael Mann - Oh, what a choice. His infamous ‘Hockey Stick’ is just so discredited.
Rubbish. Not only has he been vidicated by over a dozen independent reconstructions since then, but the author of the report widely used to “discredit” him is now under investigation because of what he put in that report! And let’s not ignore the fact that Wegman didn’t actually check to see if the statistical flaw actually made any difference to the hockey stick because they were not asked to. And guess what? It didn’t.
He failed to account for the Mediaevil Warm period and the Little Ice Age and he then used the northern hemisphere to extrapolate his findings onto a globalm scale.
“Failed to account?”

Do you have any understanding of what you’re talking about?

Mann reconstructed the temperature record using proxy data. The result of that reconstruction is what it is.

You are talking about an early reconstruction using only Central England temperatures that was published as a schematic in the first IPCC report because the data wasn’t quantifiable. It also relied on proxies, far more localised and far less reliable, with no statistical treatment or error estimates at all.

Every reconstruction since has proved Mann was right.
Oh, he also used pine tree rings as proxy data even though it was known they grew extra fast with Nitrogen applications during the twentieth Century.
You know, if there’s one lesson that we can draw from the Hall talk I referred to above, it’s that it is best to not say things when you have no idea what you’re talking about.
Phil Jones - poor man. The Climatgate email scandal shredded his goose. End of story, really.
Only to someone who is unable to understand what the emails were talking about and refuses to accept the conclusion of every single enquiry convened on the matter.
Now lets have a look at the type of “intellectuals” this “science” is attracting.
Read about three of them right here - Robert Mugabe, Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales. Such paragons of human virtue. Mugabe in particular has raped his nation and his people and yet still blames the west for global warming as the cause of his nations ills. The logic of this massive AGW scam shows when people like this thug adopt it. It’s all Green Thuggery and anti capitalism and anti Christianity…
So, just to be clear once again: the science is wrong because certain people you don’t like believe in it.

Let me ask again: when someone presents a new piece of science, do I have to call up Mugabe first to ask what he thinks of it before I can accept it?

To paraphrase Charles Babbage: I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a stance.
 
Facts they committed criminality trespass against a legally operating business. They vandalised and damaged property not belonging to them. They committed these acts with full intent and malice to disrupt. Those acts are defined as sabotage.
The fact is that the jury decided their actions were not unlawful.

The fact is that no matter how you want to portray it, the law accepts the notion that comitting a lesser crime in order to avoid a more serious outcome is legal.

You could say that a firefighter who broke down a door to rescue a baby trapped in a burning building without permission from the owners commited the crimes of tresspassing, breaking and entering, and damaging property that did not belong to them. But you’d be laughed out of town if you did.

The law isn’t always as stupid as you make it out to be. Neither are we.
Actually, it was your senseless DEFENSE of Mr. Hansens support of sabotage acts, that not only didn’t help him…,it didn’t help your credibility, with me, as well.
Honestly, at this stage I take that as a compliment.
First off, you seem to have a bad habit of omissions. You forgot WWF contributions, Friends of the Earth contributions etc etc…Not just in money BUT to the IPCC processes.
It doesn’t matter. What matters is whether the scientists are in any way influenced by these groups to misrepresent the outcomes of their research.

Have you provided absolutely any evidence of this at all? No.

Your argument doesn’t even stack up to casual scrutiny. As I have said many times now:
  1. There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that these grants are tied to particular outcomes. In fact, I quoted a “skeptical” scientist who said that he has absolutely no problem attracting funding for his research despite being known as a “skeptic”. I also pointed out how many other well-known “skeptical” scientists attract plenty of funding. If the scientists can get hold of the money whether or not they are “skeptics” or not, how is it possible that the money can influence them to not be “skeptics”?
  2. Scientists do not actually get to keep the money for themselves.
  3. In contrast to those grant fundings that you continually cast aspersions on, we have clear and concrete proof that if you are a “skeptic” you can get cold, hard cash from the fossil fuel industry for promoting your ideas. As I already said, the ExxonMobil-funded American Enterprise Institute blantantly offered $10,000 to each IPCC scientist if they would simply write a paper undermining AGW, and Pat Michaels was given $150,000 simply by asking for it – no need to go through all that messy paperwork outlining what your research is going to be and how it is going to contribute to the science that normal grant funding requires.
  4. The fossil fuel industry is massively more profitable than the groups you are so obsessed with and could easily fund real science proving the whole thing was a scam if they wanted to. Instead, they choose to fund organisations like American Enterprise Institute to lobby Congress and misinform people.
So we know that being a “skeptic” can be highly profitable, and we know that if the science was flawed there are vested interests with plenty of funds who could afford to conduct the necessary science to prove that, and we know that whether a scientist wishing to conduct real research is a “skeptic” or not is no barrier to funding.

And yet you persist with this ridiculous “guilt by association” argument. Why? Because you have no evidence.
Second the use of Circular reasoning and appeal to authority arguments, you use are amazing. 😃
You would be the expert on that.
I thought you believed in AGW - If so…surely, you can debate it, without needing to resort to these fallacies?
Given all the posts I’ve made with facts, empirical observations, and links to scientific research, and all the posts you’ve made with absolutely nothing but ad hominems and ridiculous conspiracy theories, it’s really hard to accept that you actually believe that.
You seem obsessed , that someone outside the AGW camp appealed “lobbied” for money.
It wouldn’t worry me in the least were it not for your obvious double standards.
“To whom much is given…much is owed”…CRU - IPCC are the “GIVEN” - thus, they “owe” more to keep themselves - their science… ABOVE “lobbists”, “Activists”, involvements.
Again, absolutely no attempt whatsoever to show any evidence at all that there is anything untoward going on or that the results of that research are anything other than readily reproducible by anybody with the necessary acumen.
Any scientist who can not see The dangers of associating their Science / Scientific Body to “activist groups” is indeed, impairing their prospective.
You really don’t understand how science works at all, do you?

Here’s a clue: If UEA was to fabricate their results in order to appease their financial masters, there are thousands – if not millions – of people who would know, because they could look at their results and see that they do not reflect reality.

And when I asked you before how would they even know which way to fudge their data because their funds come from groups with vested interests on both sides, you made the ludicrous claim that the fossil fuel industry wants AGW despite the very same industry actively funding PR campaigns to convince people that the science is wrong.

The mental contortions required to sustain your belief system are a wonder to behold.
 
I’ve admitted, that you’ve tried to excuse.
I asked “Which acts outlined in the Climategate emails do you think still need explaining?” and that’s your answer? I would have thought actual examples would be an appropriate response.
AND in the next breath…you make excuses for breaking FOIA.
How is “I agreed that they withheld information from people they didn’t want to share information with.” an excuse? I stated an obvious fact – they did choose to withhold information from people they didn’t want to share information with.

I have also previously pointed out that they did so under advisement.
BUT only AFTER climategate emails.
They only revealed the confidentiality agreements afterwards, yes. So what? Very few people actually doubted their existence, especially since the UK BOM agreement was available for all to see on their website!
Again, to you, it seems, the “Ends justify the means”…No matter what the requester wanted it for…They decided to violate laws.
No, they did not. They had legal advice that the FIOA did not require them to respond affirmatively in those cases and so far nobody has shown that the advice was wrong.

This may come as a shock to you, kimmielittle, but in the real world we often find ourselves in situations where we cannot tell what our legal obligations are. This is why we seek legal advice (or tax advice from a qualified accountant). I was even recently in a situation where I asked our lawyer for legal advice on a matter and he said he couldn’t answer!

When a law is being abused in a way it was not intended – FOI laws are supposed to allow citizens to check on the government and government agencies, not university professors who happen to be receiving public funding for their research – then it often takes a few court cases to establish how the law really should be interpreted. Until the law has been tested in court even the statutory bodies responsible for enforcing the law don’t always know what is legal or not! This is why the tax office sometimes loses court cases (or will even sometimes bring a court case just to clarify what the law means) and judges will look not only at the letter of the law but also the intent.

So for you to judge that they “violated laws” when actual lawyers might argue both ways is a bit rich. They did exactly what is required of any citizen – they sought professional advice and acted on it. If you don’t like it, criticise the advice they were given, not their moral character.
Another ommission?
No.
From the beginning?
Yes.
I would say 1990 was close to the beginning - Can you produce the 1990 Jones - Wang data?
No. Why would I need to?
What did it take to find out how many papers referred to 1990 Jones - Wang data Appeal to authority, again ]? FOIA and a call of fraud by Mr Keenen.
You still don’t get it. Let me break it down for you:
  1. GISS does not ignore the effect of UHI. It corrects for it, using algorithms that have been publicly described for over 20 years operating on data that has been available for at least that long. The source code has now been available for three years proving that the source code used to construst the GISS graphs accurately reflects the algorithms they claim to have been using all these years.
  2. GISS gives the same result as HadCRUT.
Therefore:
  1. Whether Jones and Wang (1990) was correct or not does not affect the conclusion that AGW is not explained by UHI.
Let’s put this in context, shall we?

In 1990 Jones and Wang wrote a paper that claimed that the UHI effect in China was minimal. They arrived at this conclusion by comparing the trend of a set of rural stations with the trend of a set of urban stations that Wang obtained from collaborators in China. 17 years later, when requested for station location information to prove that the stations they used were where they claimed to be and that the movements they had undergone were accurately characterised, Wang said that he obtained that metadata from a Chinese colleague who “had lost her notes on many station locations during a series of office moves. Nonetheless, “based on her recollections”, she could provide information on 41 of the 49 stations.”

Now we don’t know if that’s untrue. We do know that in 2007 Wang was investigated by his university over this issue at the behest of Keenen and he was exonerated. More importantly, we know that this does not invalidate any of the global temperature reconstructions, and since then there have been many studies of UHI that conclusively prove that the warming trend of the 20th Century is not caused by UHI.

So what’s your point? Your entire thesis is that just because Wang lost some metadata pertaining to a 1990 paper that in no way affects the obvious and widely reproduced conclusion that the recorded warming trend is not an artefact of UHI, AGW is suspect? I don’t get it.
 
I think, it’s better for Scientists to have the Raw Data and codes available. When they say they can’t find it in their own offices / institutions.??? The Data and Codes they depend on.
You misunderstand.

In the case of CRU, they obtained the raw data from various bureaus, they fixed the obvious errors in that data, and then threw the raw data away because from then on they could use the corrected data. Those bureaus still have their own copies of the raw data so why should CRU keep it?

That amounts of just 2% of CRU’s data.

The other 98% is just downloaded from the GHCN website.

Anybody can access the GHCN raw data, and anybody is free to contact all those bureaus and obtain the same raw data that CRU did if they so choose.

Either way it is still obvious that CRU isn’t fudging their results because anybody using just the GHCN raw data gets the same results.

In the case of GISS, they only use the GHCN data, they only use publicly-available source code, and they also get the same result. (Actually, GISS gets slightly more warming than CRU does because CRU ignores the Arctic. Feel free to only use GISS data from now on.)

On top of that, even if you use completely independent raw data – the GSOD data – you still get the same result.

As I have repeatedly shown.
The truth is, the codes and “raw data” we have from such as Mr Mann…IPCC…,CRU…Jones -Wang … HAVE indeed, proved worthy of questioning. By the Agw’S OWN ADMISSIONS.
Rubbish.

As I have repeatedly said, you and anyone else can download the scanned-in handwritten documents to prove to yourself that the GHCN raw data matches what was actually recorded.

So far nobody has reported any fudging of the GHCN raw data.

You can download the GISS source code and run it over that raw GHCN data (which you can prove accurately reflects the actual temperature recordings) to prove that it gives the same result as those published.

You can read the papers that describe the algorithms that GISS uses to correct for UHI and other errors in the raw data and the ample justifications for those corrections. Don’t like them? You can run GISS with those corrections disabled if you want.

All of these things have been done.
Nothing untoward has been discovered.

QED.
BUT but but…you excuse disruption tactics by such as Saboteurs…Criminal Trespassers…etc etc ALL ILLEGAL acts…AND see LEGAL acts of requesting FOI, disruptive…Your double standards are AMAZING, to me.
It’s amazing how you can reach exactly the opposite conclusion to the reality.

In the first case, the Greenpeace activists were taken to court and exhonerated. By definition that means their actions were not unlawful.

In the second case, the scientists obtained legal advice that told them the law did not require them to provide the requested information. There has been no finding that requests were rejected illegally.

We have gone over all of this before. Just because you think something is legal or not legal don’t make it so.
As for me, the more you say supporting the cause of AGW… The more reasons I have to question. You and The AGW hypothesis.
In other words, you are like the group in the research I reported earlier that became more sceptical when presented with additional evidence supporting the conclusion purely because they didn’t like the implications.
 
As long as Connolley I see he’s back to his old tricks ] Is associated with Wikipedia…How much is truth?

Your appeals to authority once again fails… How many of those papers refer / cite Jones - Wang Data cited? Data that can not be reproducible as cited.

You see, "published " Your attempt at "appeal to authority " ]…depends on ABSOLUTE TRUTH.

We see by Jones - Wang and other climategate and other IPCC papers / claims…Published doesn’t equate to TRUTH. As a fact the TRUTH about the Jones - Wang data was found out by an unpublished person, I believe. :p:p
You do realise that the Jones-Wang data has not been disproven, don’t you?

Previously you quoted Tom Wigley on this topic, so I think it’s only fair to provide his own summary of that exchange:

ELEANOR HALL: Now what about, let me give you another example, what about the Chinese data that was used by a scientist called Dr Wang. Was that an example of a scientist cooking up the information? Because on that you have one of your scientific colleagues suggesting that the best response to bloggers trying to expose this would be to cast aspersions on their motives. I mean how do you explain that?

TOM WIGLEY: I don’t think that I said that but, I mean, I do know the email that you’re referring to. I don’t think that is the best approach. You know, I think the best approach to these people who criticise our work, whether it’s in other scientific papers or on blogs or whatever, is to, you know, fight science or even pseudo science with science.

ELEANOR HALL: Of course climate change sceptic Andrew Bolt named you as a sort of hypothetical whistle blower on this whole affair. He says that if you weren’t then you should’ve been. How do you respond to that?

TOM WIGLEY: Well there are two things, I mean using the word “whistleblower” is really just another ploy on the part of Andrew Bolt and others to attempt to make it look as though the person who hacked these emails was a good guy and that they had a motive of trying to expose nefarious activities within the Climatic Research Unit.

Well of course there was no such nefarious activities and that’s the reason why what Andrew Bolt has said is just totally ludicrous. He says, “when did Tom Wigley finally choke on all that deceit and if he didn’t why the hell not”?

Well you know, I didn’t choke on the deceit because there was no deceit. All I did was ask a number of pointy questions and I received perfectly adequate answers. It would be really nice if someone like Andrew Bolt used the same approach and tried to get both sides of the picture and then he might learn to understand some of these issues better.
abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2009/s2766202.htm

Perhaps some advice that you could take to heart as well.
 
Interesting reads
Sure:

If the surface warming effect of 2XCO2 before surface cooling by convection is 1 deg. C, …] might this then tell us that negative feedbacks in the climate system can be expected to reduce anthropogenic global warming to only 0.5 deg. C?
I believe this is entirely possible.
How could this happen, since there is so much evidence that water vapor feedback is positive?
Because, even if water vapor feedback is positive, an increase in the solar shading effect of clouds (negative cloud feedback) could more than overwhelm the positive water vapor feedback, leading to little net warming.(Emphasis mine.)

As I clearly said, nobody is completely sure about whether the net effect of water vapour is positive or negative. Spencer is postulating that it could be negative in spite of “so much evidence that water vapor feedback is positive”, but the truth is we just don’t know for sure one way or the other.

Now unlike the guys John presented, this is a scientist who is “skeptical” that fits right into the last category on this graph:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/poll_scientists.gif

In other words, he is a legitimate authority on climate science, like Christy, and if he says something we should treat his opinion with as much respect as we treat those of all the others in that group, like Hansen, Jones, Schmidt, et al. (For the record: an impressive 93 papers on climate science, with 883 citations for the top four.)

The problem for anti-AGW’ers, of course, is that by the time you get to the scientists in this group, they’re no longer saying the things that you really want to hear. For example,

The reason why I have been recently defending the basic physics of the greenhouse effect is because I think the credibility of those who claim that the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere cannot be increased (or doesn’t even exist) is compromised when they object to something that – as far as I have seen – has no alternative explanation.
I’m always upon open to new theories, but as I have said before, until someone puts their alternative physics into an energy-conserving model of the vertical temperature profile of the atmosphere, which then produces the present-day temperature profile as current models do, it is little more than hand-waving.

Think about that next time you want to mention the “Greenhouse Effect on the Moon” argument again.

So what’s he actually saying? That it is possible that there won’t be a problem after all. There is no proof of that, but he believes it is entirely possible.

Now, at the moment, all of the research to date rules out a climate sensitivity as low as 0.5 C/doubled CO2. There is no evidence for it, as Spencer clearly states, and others in the field are unconvinced by his belief, as he also notes, but he could still be right.

The question then becomes, as I have repeatedly said, “Do you not take out insurance on your home because it might not catch fire?” We have a scientist who believes that a low climate sensitivity is possible in spite of the evidence to the contrary. Do we gamble on his belief, or do we accept the most likely scenario and act on it until we are sure that his belief is correct?
 
While it seems rather obvious intuitively that a warmer world will have more atmospheric water vapor, and thus positive water vapor feedback, I’ve just listed the first 5 reasons that come to my mind why this might not be the case.
I am not saying that’s what I necessarily believe. I will admit to having waffled on this issue over the years, but that’s because there is evidence on both sides of the debate.
At a minimum, I believe the water vapor feedback issue is more complicated than most mainstream researchers think it is.
I have taken the liberty of emphasising key words and phrases.

Now, as I showed before, there are many independent lines of evidence that agree on a climate sensitivity of about 3 degrees C/doubled CO2:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/Climate_Sensitivity_Summary.gif

None of them are consistent with a sensitivity as low as 0.5 C/doubled CO2.

Now, since the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is unprecedented in about 15 million years, it is possible that some novel effect will come into play at a temperature between the current temperature and the temperature at which the effects of global warming become severe.

But we have no evidence of that. Spencer admits it’s just a hypothesis that he, himself, is not saying that he necessarily believes, and he readily admits that mainstream researchers disagree.

If this turns out to be correct, then over time it will become obvious, it will be quantified, and models will be updated to incorporate it. And they may reveal that it’s safe to burn through the Earth’s remaining reserves of fossil fuels as quickly as we possibly can.

But you’ll note that nothing in that hypothesis will counteract the effects of ocean acidification, because that’s purely a function of CO2 concentration.

Prudence, and the ocean acidification issue, suggest we take a more cautious approach than to bet the farm on a hunch who’s proponent isn’t even willing to say he believes in it.
 
I have taken the liberty of emphasising key words and phrases.

Now, as I showed before, there are many independent lines of evidence that agree on a climate sensitivity of about 3 degrees C/doubled CO2:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/Climate_Sensitivity_Summary.gif

None of them are consistent with a sensitivity as low as 0.5 C/doubled CO2.

Now, since the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is unprecedented in about 15 million years, it is possible that some novel effect will come into play at a temperature between the current temperature and the temperature at which the effects of global warming become severe.

But we have no evidence of that. Spencer admits it’s just a hypothesis that he, himself, is not saying that he necessarily believes, and he readily admits that mainstream researchers disagree.

If this turns out to be correct, then over time it will become obvious, it will be quantified, and models will be updated to incorporate it. And they may reveal that it’s safe to burn through the Earth’s remaining reserves of fossil fuels as quickly as we possibly can.

But you’ll note that nothing in that hypothesis will counteract the effects of ocean acidification, because that’s purely a function of CO2 concentration.

Prudence, and the ocean acidification issue, suggest we take a more cautious approach than to bet the farm on a hunch who’s proponent isn’t even willing to say he believes in it.
Its fine to have all your reams of data and verifiable conclusions, but that is not what we want to hear.

If all this climate change mumbo jumbo is acted upon , it will destroy our economy. The US economy is predicated upon a reliance upon fossil fuels that can not be deserted without economic harm to some of our most respected companies like ExxonMobil and our British friends BP and our South American Friends at Citgo and our many Saudi, Iranian and Russian friends that support our values as catholics.

If we were to become independent of these firms, who would fund our elections ? Who would advocate for the protection of the Middle East where our American Boys and Girls so valiantly give their lives to preserve an Islamic way of life?

We would be deserting our good friends that are always looking out for our best interests. And if we wait until it absolutely is proven that fossil fuels not only pollute, but will cause ocean front property to be for sale in Orlando, think of the damage it will do to our Chinese buddies who are struggling now just to take all our present Us manufacturing jobs to their shores.

If we were to focus on green energy now, all those poor abortion mandating Chinese communists who want to be the biggest players in the worldwide green energy marketplace, might be constrained in how much more stuff they can sell to us.

Just because the science seems to be right , doesn’t mean we should believe it. After all there are more people in the US than anywhere else who believe the earth is only 6000 years old and people once rode dinosaurs and if they can be positive about that, there is no reason why they can’t be positive about global warming being a hoax as well.

Peace
 
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