Catholicism and Climate Change

  • Thread starter Thread starter jaserius
  • Start date Start date
Status
Not open for further replies.
Ok about the hotspot first off actually the hotspot isn;t supposed to be THE sign of greenhouse gas related warming.
According to the IPCC AR4 report, yes, the hotspot is the unique signature of greenhouse warming.
As I understand it that is stratospheric cooling which we have seen.
Effects of ozone also cause stratospheric cooling; this effect is not unique to greenhouse warming.
But skeptical science has something on the whole hotspot debate.
Their position essentially is admission that the hot spot is missing but they think they can explain why.
  • “the data isn’t conclusive enough to unequivocally say there is no hot spot.”
*Ender
 
40.png
Ahimsa:
🙂 I am always happy to read that the Pope knows more than I do about the Catholic Church and about Global Warming. “What I meant to say…” was that the “Science” of Global Warming is not a religious issue (or something like that) but, our good Pope believes and, of course, I completely do too, that the facts change what may have once been a matter of “opinion” into a far more serious and deadly matter. When you know an avalanche is coming and you fail to take all the measures required to protect others, the whole world, in this case, then “silence” is not an option and the good Pope showed his willingness to go where the weak and frail in body, spirit and wisdom are afraid to go.
Pope Benedict XVI is to be admired for leading us, Catholics, where many are unwilling to go due to ignorance, laziness or whatever. He may have further steps in mind to those willing to put 6 Billion souls at risk due to laziness.:confused: Will God have mercy on their souls? There is too much evidence of Global Warming -already. Two recent findings:
I. “National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Aiguo Dai used an ensemble of 22 climate models and a review of previous studies to update global drought projections. Dai found a long-term drying trend over much of the world’s surface from 1900 to 2008, which was largely driven by increases in temperature. Models relying on the best available emission scenarios project increased drying in just the next 30 years, with the worst impacts in the western U.S., Central America, western South America, much of Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and southern Australia. “If the projections in this study come even close to being realized,” Dai said, “the consequences for society worldwide will be enormous.” The study was published in the October 19, 2010 Early View of WIREs Climate Change.”
II. 2010 Sea Ice Extent Third-Lowest on Record.
 
According to the IPCC AR4 report, yes, the hotspot is the unique signature of greenhouse warming.
Effects of ozone also cause stratospheric cooling; this effect is not unique to greenhouse warming.
Their position essentially is admission that the hot spot is missing but they think they can explain why.
  • “the data isn’t conclusive enough to unequivocally say there is no hot spot.”
*Ender
I just read the article…about 2000 words to say - We dono 🙂
 
🙂 I am always happy to read that the Pope knows more than I do about the Catholic Church and about Global Warming. “What I meant to say…” was that the “Science” of Global Warming is not a religious issue (or something like that) but, our good Pope believes and, of course, I completely do too, that the facts change what may have once been a matter of “opinion” into a far more serious and deadly matter.
Hmmmm could you please link to the Holy Father’s exact words confirming your statement above, please?

I do know The Holy Father has called us to good stewardship including good stewardship of Nature - economy - resources and provision of the poor…BUT I have never seen The Holy Father embrace an unproven hypothesis including AGW . To embrace an unproven hypothesis, one would need to place FAITH in that hypothesis.

There are some who would wish us to think the Holy Father is some dumb old guy - quite the contrary, He would not ask us to have a misplaced FAITH in an unproven hypothesis. 🙂

Here IS what he does say about the scaremongers.
The Pope condemns the climate change prophets of doom
By SIMON CALDWELL
Last updated at 11:01 13 December 2007
Attack: Pope Benedict criticised climate-change prophets of doom

Pope Benedict XVI has launched a surprise attack on climate change prophets of doom, warning them that any solutions to global warming must be based on firm evidence and not on dubious ideology.
The leader of more than a billion Roman Catholics suggested that fears over man-made emissions melting the ice caps and causing a wave of unprecedented disasters were nothing more than scare-mongering.
The German-born Pontiff said that while some concerns may be valid it was vital that the international community based its policies on science rather than the dogma of the environmentalist movement.
His remarks will be made in his annual message for World Peace Day on January 1, but they were released as delegates from all over the world convened on the Indonesian holiday island of Bali for UN climate change talks.
The 80-year-old Pope said the world needed to care for the environment but not to the point where the welfare of animals and plants was given a greater priority than that of mankind.
When you know an avalanche is coming and you fail to take all the measures required to protect others, the whole world, in this case, then “silence” is not an option and the good Pope showed his willingness to go where the weak and frail in body, spirit and wisdom are afraid to go.
Pope Benedict XVI is to be admired for leading us, Catholics, where many are unwilling to go due to ignorance, laziness or whatever. He may have further steps in mind to those willing to put 6 Billion souls at risk due to laziness.:confused:
Prove CO2 is the main driver of climate, please. If you can’t, your prediction of avalance holds as much weight as Mr J. Smith when he predicted, from his “divine intervention”, saying there are people on the moon.

What EXACTLY has the Holy Father said were " the measures required to protect others, the whole world, in this case" against AGW, please?

I’ll save you the time looking it up - Nothing more than I stated above, Good stewardship …AND with no mention of AGW OR any of its schemes offered as solutions…none, nada, zip, - zero.

Please stop trying to contort what the Holy Father HAS said.
Will God have mercy on their souls?
C’mon enough, already. How will God judge your soul? Do you see how ridiculous this statement, of yours becomes? 🙂
I. “National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Aiguo Dai used an ensemble of 22 climate models and a review of previous studies to update global drought projections. Dai found a long-term drying trend over much of the world’s surface from 1900 to 2008, which was largely driven by increases in temperature. Models relying on the best available emission scenarios project increased drying in just the next 30 years, with the worst impacts in the western U.S., Central America, western South America, much of Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and southern Australia. “If the projections in this study come even close to being realized,” Dai said, “the consequences for society worldwide will be enormous.” The study was published in the October 19, 2010 Early View of WIREs Climate Change.”
Is this the same Aiguo Dia who predicted a drought in the Sahel because of AGW?

That was a hard Prediction to make, I think, - seeing the Sahel has been drought ridden since at least the 17th century. Just how much CO2 was there in the 17th century 1601 to 1700 in the Gregorian calendar ]? I believe he had some 18 models to make that prediction.
severe drought has been confirmed each century since the 17th century, …
As disruptive as the droughts of the late 20th century were, evidence of past droughts recorded in Ghanaian lake sediments suggest that multi-decadal droughts were common in West Africa over the past 3,000 years and that several droughts lasted far longer and were far more severe…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahel_drought
continued
 
Continued
II. 2010 Sea Ice Extent Third-Lowest on Record.
AND history tells us what? Hint: Northwest passage.

How long is this “RECORD”? It seems the title is a bit deceptive IMO, as we have geographical and historical evidence FAR more than 31 years…
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Code:
                 ** [Paper: Current Arctic Sea Ice is More Extensive than Most of the past 9000 Years](http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/09/paper-current-arctic-sea-ice-is-more.html)**
A peer-reviewed paper published in the *Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences *finds that western Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the 20th century was more extensive than most of the past 9000 years. The paper also finds that the western Arctic sea ice extent was on a declining trend over the past 9000 years, but recovered beginning sometime over the past 1000 years and has been relatively stable and extensive since. The paper also demonstrates that even though western annual sea ice extent has been less than the present throughout most of the last 9000 years, low sea ice has consistently failed to cause a planetary albedo ‘tipping point’ claimed by warmists.
Although it seems like a day doesn’t go by without an alarmist headline or blog posting obsessing over the daily Arctic sea ice statistics (and never about Antarctic sea ice extent which reached a record high this year), this paleo-climate perspective takes all the wind out of alarmist sails. Satellite assessment of sea ice conditions is only available beginning in 1979 (around the time the global cooling scare ended), with only sparse data available prior to 1979. The alarmists at the NRDC fraudulently claim in a new video that due to “climate destruction,” Arctic sea ice reached the lowest in history in 2010 (actually the low since 1979 was in 2007 and 2010 was the 3rd or 4th lowest depending on the source). Probably wouldn’t bring in many donations if they mentioned the truth: the 21st century has some of the *highest *annual western Arctic sea ice extents over the past 9000 years.
hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/09/paper-current-arctic-sea-ice-is-more.html

Of course people will point out this is for Western Arctic. I’ll let this answer for me
“It is important to note that the amplitude of these millennial-scale changes in sea-surface conditions FAR exceed those observed at the end of the 20th century.”
or the abstract:
“The results of this study clearly show that sea-ice cover in the WESTERN Arctic Ocean has varied throughout the Holocene. MORE IMPORTANTLY, there have been times when sea-ice cover was less extensive than at the end of the 20th century.”
Regarding their discussion of the EASTERN Arctic, one of the same authors published a paper cited in the discussion about the bipolar behavior east vs. west.
Which shows in Fig 6 that the “bipolar” east/west behavior began in the 1700’s way before industrialization and the graph cuts off sometime in the 1800’s. Therefore, the discussion about bipolar changes is referring to a time period BEFORE the 20th century.
also look at Fig 9 showing the WESTERN Arctic back to 16,000 Y BP.
and the abstract which states bipolar changes are not unlike those seen in the 20th century
I’d like to know why western Arctic Sea Ice conditions over many many periods and FAR worse than the present didn’t cause a tipping point due to decreased albedo at any time, but much better sea ice conditions are claimed to cause a tipping point now.
 
Guess what Jason. I’m a scientist too.
Is that so? I guess it’s a pretty broad church. I would have expected most scientists to have some skill at judging expertise and knowing straight away that most of the opinions you’ve quoted are completely irrelevant, but then I would also have expected someone who has completed “99%” of a law degree to have some familiarity with logical fallacies as well.
Yep. I gre up on and then ran a farm for over thirty years. You know how it is, you become an expert in the weather, and soils and animals and all that. Why I can include the study of a river, mountains, bush, wildlife and a whole lot of other stuff. And guess what else. I was surrounded by lots of other scientists. My next door neighbours, gee, as far as you wanted to travel, I was surounded by people all doing the same thing - studying their environment. Oh, we experienced droughts, floods, and everything in between. You know, in the 1990s and all the way up to the mid 2000s, we even wondered if something terrible had happened, our weather was so fickle and unpredictable. And rain just wouldn’t come. Funny thing happened though, it has all started to come back to normal.
Nobody said that global warming would do away with weather.

I’m so pleased for you that thanks to a La Niña coupled with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole – quite a rare event – you’re getting “normal” rains for a change. Perth, meanwhile, experienced its second-driest winter on record (the driest on record being just four years ago) and has only received 56% of its average rainfall this year. The “drought” is now about 35 years long. (I put “drought” in quotes because at a certain point you simply need to redefine what is “normal”.) Sprinker bans are the most restrictive ever imposed despite already having one desalination plant and a second under construction – imagine if they took your approach and assumed everything would be OK rather than spending all that money?

I grew up in the bush as well and experienced plenty of weather – enough to know that one or two good years of rain (or even “average” years) doesn’t mean climate change isn’t happening, and a prediction that climate change will cause more droughts in a certain region doesn’t mean that every time it rains the prediction is “disproved”.
We all, yes all, reckon AGW is a crock.
Well, I guess that’s OK, then. We could have saved ourselves a lot of effort if it had occurred to us decades ago that all we had to do was ask farmers about the climate instead of doing all that expensive research and other sciency stuff.
Climate change? Yep, it happens. But it happens without us interfering, just as it has in past eons.
Of course it happens without us interfering, just like bush fires can occur naturally.

And it can be caused by humans, just like bush fires.

If there is a bush fire, do the police say “Oh, well, these things happen naturally, and look – the fire is out now, everything’s back to normal.” or do they investigate the cause of the fire to see if it was deliberately lit?

I don’t understand why this concept is so difficult for you to grasp.

Let me put it this way:

We have a theory that predicts if you put a lit match against some dry tinder, it will burn.

The theory also predicts that once it starts burning, it will spread to other wood nearby, and continue to do so until it either runs out of fuel or something puts it out.

We have a dozen eye witnesses who saw the accused light a match and put it against some dry tinder in a forest, which resulted in a major bush fire.

And you’re arguing that not only are they not guilty because bushfires occur naturally as well, but the whole theory is a crock and forests occasionally just burn for reasons we are unable to fathom and we should just accept that.

What’s even more remarkable is that we’re not talking about a bush fire that is indistinguishable from natural bush fires – we’re talking about changes to the climate that all the evidence we have tells us are highly unusual as far back as we can see. It’s like a massive bush fire that seems to have been started in a dozen different places in quick succession that just happen to be close to major roads and assuming it “just happened”.
So no matter how many graphs you print, no matter how many polar bears you count, no matter what your philosophical or theological views are, out here in the real world, all is fine.
In other words, you are impervious to reason. Thanks for making the point for me.
 
Two of the most ridiculous ad hominems ever written IMHO 😃
Are you trying to be ironic?
The first states:
I am a scientist
It is, a stupidly put, appeal to authority. IMO. One fallacy in logic, I wouldn’t expect that a scientist would make 🙂
To quote you: “You are a real piece of work.”

The sentence immediately before was “Instead I choose to post here – a place where most scientists wouldn’t bother posting.” and immediately after was “and I have always been proud of the modern Catholic stance towards science, defending Catholicism against fellow scientists as being the most “rational” religion, so I was disconcerted when I saw exactly the same kind of thinking on this thread that I only previously associated with American Evangelical Christians.”

How you can turn a simple explanation of my motives for posting here rather than RC or WUWT into a ridiculous claim like the above is beyond me. It’s too absurd for words.

The fact that I am a scientist I have neither tried to hide nor use in my arguments here. In fact, I have gone out of my way to encourage you to be more sceptical of what you read and to check things out for yourself. I have provided links to everything from the scanned-in versions of the raw temperature logs going back a hundred years to the source code for some climate models themselves. I have provided graphs and tried to explain your “oopsies” about lambda. Not once have I said “You should believe me because I am a scientist”.

The point of mentioning it above was by way of explaining my motivation: most people I know, especially the scientists, are either not religious at all or outright atheists and therefore are highly unlikely to turn up here. Furthermore, I have had many conversations with them explaining why I’m a Catholic and the research and evidence upon which I base my beliefs. I have defended the Church’s record and processes in contrast to many other churches and faiths, and that is why what I read here was so disconcerting – exactly as I said.

It beggars belief that someone with honest intent could possibly take that simple statement and cortort it the way you do.
How many times have scientists been wrong?
As I said before: All the time. But not all wrongs are equal. Once again, to quote Isacc Asimov on “The Relativity of Wrong”: “when people thought the earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the earth was spherical, they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together.”

The current theory of AGW is guaranteed to be wrong. But the theory that CO2 is not the main driver of climate change right now is more wrong, just like the theory that the Earth is flat is more wrong than the theory that the Earth is a perfect sphere. The refinements will be made the the current theory as time goes on, making it less wrong over time, and those refinements will almost certainly reduce the uncertainties in the current theory, not completely change it altogether.

Models are wrong, too, as George Box said: “Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful”. It is not necessary to reconcile the differences between Quantum Theory and Relativity to design aircraft, plan trips to other planets, or predict the climate. It’s important to know how wrong the model can be, which is why error ranges are presented, but it is not necessary to be absolutely perfect to know that continuing to emit large quantities of CO2 is going to have dire consequences.

And finally, one of my favourites, since you like to bring some pretty crazy arguments to the debate: “They said Einstein was a fool. They said the Wright brothers were fools. What you’ve got to remember, however, is that they also said that about an awful lot of fools.”
Why would a scientist need to stoop to logic fallacies. appeal to authority - ad hominems etc - especially debating their pseudo-science unproven hypothesis against a kid ]?
Sigh… Once again:

An appeal to authority is only a logical fallacy if the authority is not a recognised authority. Claiming that an argument that quotes scientific research or scientific bodies is fallacious because it’s an “appeal to authority” is nothing more than a transparent attempt to prevent contrary evidence being presented.

Likewise, an ad hominem is only a logical fallacy if the attack is irrelevant to the argument.

What any of this has to do with you purpotedly being a “kid” I have no idea, except that possible explains why you obviously have no idea what “pseudo-science” and “unproven hypothesis” actually mean.

Perhaps you would like to have a go at presenting a cogent argument in support of your case that does not rely on a single logical fallacy yourself?

Oh, that’s right – you don’t play that game. Instead you regurgitate ad hominems ad infinitum and justify it on the basis that “it’s their fault” for destroying their credibility with you. As I said, your entire argument is an ad hominem, and any attempt to point to a credible source is dismissed as an appeal to authority and any attempt to explain why another source is not credible is dismissed as an ad hominem. That would be OK if you were amenable to logic and reason but even the simplest explanation of the most basic concepts just goes round and round in circles.

Do you “get” the problem in Wills’ calculation yet? For some reason you chose to ignore that and focus your entire attack on one sentence explaining my motives. No surprises there, I suppose.
 
This is an attempted ad hominem in disguise…meaning if you don’t believe in AGW …you are an “irrational” Catholic
Given what you can manufacture out of a single, straightforward sentence, I’m surprised you didn’t come up with even more from the Climategate emails. Perhaps you weren’t really trying.
FACT: AGW depends upon CO2 being the Main driver of climate - AND this is an unproven hypothesis.
Wow, we’ve actually made progress – previously you said:
CO2 IS THE ONLY DRIVER OF CLIMATE
CO2 ALWAYS CREATES GLOBAL WARMING
Now it’s down to being the main driver of climate. I would change that slightly – it’s the main driver of climate change, which is what we’re concerned about, and the reason why scientists think it’s the main driver of climate change is because of the theory that explains why increasing concentrations of a known greenhouse gase will cause the climate to change coupled with huge numbers of observations of exactly the same sorts of changes that we’d expect to see.

“unproven”? As I have said many, many times now, science is never “proven”. It’s a logical impossibility. But AGW is by far the best explanation of the evidence, consistent with every field of science there is, and there is no evidence to suggest it is wrong nor competing theories that can explain the evidence anywhere near as well – in fact, the competing theories, like the belief that variations in the sun’s output could be responsible (you seem to have overlooked my questions to you on Willie Soon’s paper that you thought “seems to correlate much better”) have been thoroughly disproven.
A shameless attempt to to demean Both American Evangelical Christians AND anyone who disagrees with what has been presented thus far, by the AGW pseudo-science AND it’s “Solutions” issued by the IPCC / UN.
Wow. I’m good. I should offer my services to all those right-wing think tanks, they pay a lot for a talent like mine.

Anyway, back on Planet Earth: the anti-science thinking that is so common in American Evangelical Christians is both well-known and well-documented. I’ve read that fewer Americans accept Evolution today than 100 years ago, for example, despite the Catholic Church having a very accommodating stance for fifty years and the following statement by Pope John Paul II in 1996:

"In his encyclical Humani Generis (1950), my predecessor Pius XII has already affirmed that there is no conflict between evolution and the doctrine of the faith regarding man and his vocation, provided that we do not lose sight of certain fixed points…Today, more than a half-century after the appearance of that encyclical, some new findings lead us toward the recognition of evolution as more than a hypothesis. In fact it is remarkable that this theory has had progressively greater influence on the spirit of researchers, following a series of discoveries in different scholarly disciplines. The convergence in the results of these independent studies – which was neither planned nor sought – constitutes in itself a significant argument in favor of the theory."ewtn.com/library/PAPALDOC/JP961022.HTM

In spite of that, consider the responses of adults to the question “Human beings, as we know them, developed from earlier species of animals.”:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/bigphotos/images/060810-evolution_big.jpg

Well, at least you beat Turkey. Congratulations.
actually, I have been aware for quite awhile that JasonSB isn’t an American - though he doesn’t state his country affiliation…
Why would you even assume that I was? You make it sound like I’ve been trying to deceive people despite the fact that I’ve made no attempt to disguise my spelling. I assumed it would be obvious to all.
so, this is also a another effort to also demean Americans ].
And this is also another effort to ignore the substantive points (and answer all of the questions I raised) and manufacture “debate” on irrelevancies to save face.
IMO, Some need to step down off their horse, as the AGW movement has enough credibility problems, right now. 🙂
Right, where “credibility problem” = “daring to disagree with kimmielittle”.
 
Lets see what other scientists say

“Temperature measurements show that the [climate model-predicted mid-troposphere] hot zone is non-existent. This is more than sufficient to invalidate global climate models and projections made with them!”- UN IPCC Scientist Dr. Steven M. Japar, a PhD atmospheric chemist who was part of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Second (1995) and Third (2001) Assessment Reports, and has authored 83 peer-reviewed publications and in the areas of climate change, atmospheric chemistry, air pollutions and vehicle emissions.
This question has already been discussed in this thread before so I’ll make a few other observations instead.

Firstly, Japar was already included in the following figure as “unconvinced” that I posted before, so his views have been accounted for:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Consensus_publications.gif

However, according to the research that produced that graph, he’s only responsible for one paper on climate. That doesn’t make the quote wrong – perhaps the other 82 papers were on “atmospheric chemistry, air pollutions and vehicle emissions”, which would make sense given his area of research was vehicles emissions measurement and he worked at Ford Motor Co.

The second interesting thing is how far and wide that quote has been spread, verbatim. You can basically catalogue anti-AGW websites just by Googling for it. Yet trying to find anything written by him apart from that quote is rather difficult. (The quote itself comes from a post by our good friend Marc Morano, who took it from a statement Japar apparently made to Inhofe’s committee.)

The third interesting thing is how impressive IPCC committe credentials are when it suits – not only has Japar written at least one paper on climate, but he’s a UN IPCC Scientist who was part of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Second (1995) and Third (2001) Assessment Reports.

Actually, he wasn’t a “UN scientist” at all, but he was a reviewer – just like Steve McIntyre, Vincent Gray, and your good friend Pat “C’mon he’s a circuit lecturer” Michaels were reviewers of the fourth IPCC assessment report. If McIntyre said the Hocky stick was broken would we get a report:

“The Hocky stick is broken!”- UN IPCC Scientist Mr. Stephen McIntyre, a mathematician who was part of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth (2007) Assessment Report,…

For some reason when an expert in vehicle emissions who works at a car company makes a comment about AGW then being a “UN IPCC Scientist” who was “part of the IPCC” is considered very important despite the fact that anybody can become a reviewer by asking to see the draft report.

Funny.
 
Hmmmm could you please link to the Holy Father’s exact words confirming your statement above, please?

I do know The Holy Father has called us to good stewardship including good stewardship of Nature - economy - resources and provision of the poor…BUT I have never seen The Holy Father embrace an unproven hypothesis including AGW . To embrace an unproven hypothesis, one would need to place FAITH in that hypothesis.

There are some who would wish us to think the Holy Father is some dumb old guy - quite the contrary, He would not ask us to have a misplaced FAITH in an unproven hypothesis. 🙂

Here IS what he does say about the scaremongers.

Prove CO2 is the main driver of climate, please. If you can’t, your prediction of avalance holds as much weight as Mr J. Smith when he predicted, from his “divine intervention”, saying there are people on the moon.

What EXACTLY has the Holy Father said were " the measures required to protect others, the whole world, in this case" against AGW, please?

I’ll save you the time looking it up - Nothing more than I stated above, Good stewardship …AND with no mention of AGW OR any of its schemes offered as solutions…none, nada, zip, - zero.

Please stop trying to contort what the Holy Father HAS said.

C’mon enough, already. How will God judge your soul? Do you see how ridiculous this statement, of yours becomes? 🙂

Is this the same Aiguo Dia who predicted a drought in the Sahel because of AGW?

That was a hard Prediction to make, I think, - seeing the Sahel has been drought ridden since at least the 17th century. Just how much CO2 was there in the 17th century 1601 to 1700 in the Gregorian calendar ]? I believe he had some 18 models to make that prediction.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahel_drought
continued
**US cardinal urges Catholics to take ‘St. Francis Pledge’ on climate change
**September 30, 2010

In a letter to parishes dated October 4-- the memorial of St. Francis of Assisi-- Cardinal Roger Mahony of Los Angeles will announce the formation of the Archdiocesan Creation Sustainability Ministry, according to the electronic newsletter of the Catholic Climate Covenant.

“We exhort our faith communities and all our brothers and sisters to take the St. Francis Pledge, an initiative that urges Catholics nationwide to pray for, learn about, assess, act and advocate for populations affected by climate change, especially those that are most vulnerable,” Cardinal Mahony adds.

“The St. Francis Pledge is a promise and a commitment by Catholic individuals, families, parishes, organizations and institutions to live our faith by protecting God’s Creation and advocating on behalf of people in poverty who face the harshest impacts of global climate change,” according to the Catholic Climate Covenant, an initiative of the Catholic Coalition on Climate Change. In marked contrast to some environmental organizations, the Catholic Climate Covenant states that it holds to “an authentically Catholic Pro-Life position which uncompromisingly excludes abortion, artificial contraception, and/or sterilization.”

The coalition, in turn, is a partnership of the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, the National Religious Partnership for the Environment, and ten other organizations.
 
According to the IPCC AR4 report, yes, the hotspot is the unique signature of greenhouse warming.
Where does it say that?

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/fig/figure-9-1.jpeg

If you look at panel (a), you can see that the area where the hotspot is in panel (c) is also warmer in panel (a) – it’s just less dramatic. Therefore a hotspot could be caused by either solar forcing or AGW.

The area above that, in the stratosphere, however, goes in the opposite direction between panel (a) (solar) and panel (c) (GHG), which is why stratospheric cooling is considered a signature of AGW (and, as you know, has been detected).
Effects of ozone also cause stratospheric cooling; this effect is not unique to greenhouse warming.
Panel (d) is stratospheric ozone, and although it does show very mild cooling in the stratosphere, it’s far less dramatic than GHG’s.
Their position essentially is admission that the hot spot is missing but they think they can explain why.
No.

(3) Adjustments for changing instrumentation are most challenging for upper-air data sets. While these show promise for trend analysis, and it is very likely that current upper-air climate records give reliable indications of directions of change (e.g., warming of the troposphere, cooling of the stratosphere), some questions remain regarding the accuracy of the data after adjustments have been made to produce homogeneous time series from the raw measurements.

• Upper-air data sets have been subjected to less scrutiny than surface data sets.

• Adjustments are complicated, can be large compared to the linear trend signal, involve expert judgments, and cannot be stringently evaluated because of lack of traceable standards.

• Unlike surface trends, reported upper-air trends vary considerably between research teams beginning with the same raw data owing to their different decisions on how to remove non-climatic factors.

…]

(2) Tropospheric temperatures: All data sets show that the global- and tropical-average troposphere has warmed from 1958 to the present, with the warming in the troposphere being slightly more than at the surface. For changes from 1979, due to the considerable disagreements between tropospheric data sets, it is not clear whether the troposphere has warmed more than or less than the surface.

• Global-average tropospheric temperature increased at a rate of about 0.14ºC per decade since 1958 according to the two radiosonde data sets. For the period from 1979, temperature increased by 0.10ºC to 0.20ºC per decade according to the two radiosonde and three satellite data sets. In the tropics, temperature increased at about 0.13ºC per decade since 1958, and between 0.02ºC and 0.19ºC per decade since 1979.

• Errors in observed temperature trend differences between the surface and the troposphere are more likely to come from errors in tropospheric data than from errors in surface data.

• It is very likely that estimates of trends in tropospheric temperatures are affected by errors that remain in the adjusted radiosonde data sets. Such errors arise because the methods used to produce these data sets are only able to detect and remove the more obvious causes, and involve many subjective decisions. The full consequences of these errors for large-area averages, however, have not yet been fully resolved. Nevertheless, it is likely that a net spurious cooling corrupts the area-averaged adjusted radiosonde data in the tropical troposphere, causing these data to indicate less warming than has actually occurred there.

• For tropospheric satellite data, a primary cause of trend differences between different versions is differences in how the data from different satellites are merged together. Corrections required to account for drifting measurement times are also important.

• Comparisons between satellite and radiosonde temperatures for the mid troposphere to lower stratosphere layer (MSU channel 2; T2) are very likely to be corrupted by excessive stratospheric cooling in the radiosonde data.
climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/sap1-1-final-execsum.pdf – a report with John Christy as a lead author.

They are flat out stating that you can’t say if there’s a hot spot or not using the data that’s available. To claim the hot spot is missing is to make a claim that you cannot support with the existing data.
 
Dear friends,
What is the Catholic Church’s position on climate change?
Thanks for your help, God bless,
Jason.
Analysis of Proposition 23 in light of Catholic Church Teaching
Thursday, 30 September 2010 22:54
There are a number of issues at play in this initiative.
  1. The bill, AB 32, suspended by this initiative, mandates the reduction greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2020. To achieve that goal the Air Resources Board has devised a cap and trade program which allows emitters to buy, sell or trade emission allowances. In addition, fees will be levied against power plants and refineries and energy efficiency standards for buildings will be imposed.
  2. Eight recorded entities in opposition—one reported contributions before June 30: “No on Prop 23 Committee of the NRDC Action Fund to Stop the Dirty Energy Proposition" contributions of $1 million.
  3. Opponents claim that proponents draw most of their financial support from large out-of-state oil companies. A review of the Secretary of State filings for January-June 2010: Texas oil companies contributed $1 million, California Oil companies/refineries contributed $1.5 million, and the rest of $3.1 million from individuals and companies.
  4. Unemployment rate in California is higher than the nation, e.g., 12.4 vs. 9.6 percent. AB 32 would be dormant until the rate dropped to 5.5 percent or less for a year.
  5. The Legislative Analyst predicts the passage of Proposition 23, suspending AB 32, would save individual Californians money on energy costs and result in a modest net increase in overall economic activity resulting in an increase in revenues.
  6. Passage of Proposition 23 mean there would be no chance of reaching the goals set forth in AB 32 of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels in the next 10 years.
    ** Relevant Church teaching concerns “care for God’s creation,” keeping in mind that mankind is also God’s creation, and stewardship, realizing that we deal with limited financial resources. Below are some relevant passages with links to the source documents.
    “At its core, global climate change is not about economic theory or political platforms, nor about partisan advantage or interest group pressures. It is about the future of God’s creation and the one human family. It is about protecting both “the human environment” and the natural environment.1 It is about our human stewardship of God’s creation and our responsibility to those who come after us. With these reflections, we seek to offer a word of caution and a plea for genuine dialogue as the US and other nations face decisions about how best to respond to the challenges of global climate change.” Global Climate Change: A Plea for Dialogue, Prudence, and the Common Good, Introduction**
“The introduction of industrialization, which is necessary for economic growth and human progress, is both a sign of development and a spur to it. ” Populorum Progressio (On the Development of Peoples) (No. 25)
“Once again it is evident that development, the planning which governs it, and the way in which resources are used must include respect for moral demands. One of the latter undoubtedly imposes limits on the use of the natural world. The dominion granted to man by the Creator is not an absolute power, nor can one speak of a freedom to “use and misuse,” or to dispose of things as one pleases. The limitation imposed from the beginning by the Creator himself and expressed symbolically by the prohibition not to “eat of the fruit of the tree” (cf. Gen 2:16-17) shows clearly enough that, when it comes to the natural world, we are subject not only to biological laws but also to moral ones, which cannot be violated with impunity. A true concept of development cannot ignore the use of the elements of nature, the renewability of resources and the consequences of haphazard industrialization - three considerations which alert our consciences to the moral dimension of development.” The Concern of the Church for the Social Order, no. 34

“But the true meaning of God’s original command, as the Book of Genesis clearly shows, was not a simple conferral of authority, but rather a summons to responsibility…Biblical Revelation made us see that nature is a gift of the Creator, who gave it an inbuilt order and enabled man to draw from it the principles needed to “till it and keep it” (cf. Gen. 2:15). Everything that exists belongs to God, who has entrusted it to man, albeit not for his arbitrary use. Once man, instead of acting as God’s co-worker, sets himself up in place of God, he ends up provoking a rebellion on the part of nature, “which is more tyrannized than governed by him”. Man thus has a duty to exercise responsible stewardship over creation, to care for it and to cultivate it.” Pope Benedict XVI’s 2010 Message for the World Peace Day No. 6
“We do not need a State which regulates and controls everything, but a State which, in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity, generously acknowledges and supports initiatives arising from the different social forces and combines spontaneity with closeness to those in need.” Deus Caritas Est, No. 28 b
“Today the subject of development is also closely related to the duties arising from our relationship to the natural environment. The environment is God’s gift to everyone, and in our use of it we have a responsibility towards the poor, towards future generations and towards humanity as a whole.” Caritas in Veritate, no. 49
 
They are flat out stating that you can’t say if there’s a hot spot or not using the data that’s available. To claim the hot spot is missing is to make a claim that you cannot support with the existing data.
I think this pretty much summarizes the AGW position: Just because we can’t find the conditions we predicted doesn’t mean our prediction was wrong.

Ender
 
Analysis of Proposition 23 in light of Catholic Church Teaching
There is no analysis of prop 23 in light of Catholic teaching since the Church has not - and will not - address either the validity of the theory of AGW or the feasibility of various approaches to mitigate it.

Ender
 
There is no analysis of prop 23 in light of Catholic teaching since the Church has not - and will not - address either the validity of the theory of AGW or the feasibility of various approaches to mitigate it.

Ender
But the church does recognize the detrimental effect of pollution on the all of and more specifically on the populations that we would call the least.

So reduce CO2 emotions because it is the right thing to do, not because going against AWG is the right-wing thing to do.

Peace
 
I think this pretty much summarizes the AGW position: Just because we can’t find the conditions we predicted doesn’t mean our prediction was wrong.
That’s a gross misrepresentation of the facts.

For a start, it ignores all of the predictions that are characteristic of AGW that have obviously come true. Things like:
  1. AGW predicts that night-time minimums will rise faster than day-time maximums. Solar would cause the opposite effect. Observations comfirm AGW.
  2. AGW predicts that polar regions will warm faster than the equator. Solar would cause the opposite effect. Observations confirm AGW.
  3. AGW predicts that satellites will measure less heat escaping into space at the precise wavelengths that CO2 absorbs. Observations confirm AGW.
  4. AGW predicts that surface measurements would find this heat returning to earth to warm the surface. Observations confirm AGW. (Philipona et al. (2004) concluded “The resulting uniform increase of longwave downward radiation manifests radiative forcing that is induced by greenhouse gas concentrations and water vapor feedback, and proves the “theory” of greenhouse warming with direct observations.”. Evans et al. (2006) concluded “This experimental data should effectively end the argument by skeptics that no experimental evidence exists for the connection between greenhouse gas increases in the atmosphere and global warming.” Oh, how badly they underestimated the resilience of “skeptics”!)
  5. AGW predicts that the stratosphere will cool while the troposphere warms. Solar would cause both to warm. Observations confirm AGW.
  6. AGW predicts that the tropopause should rise because of the warming troposphere and cooling stratosphere. Observations confirm AGW.
And then we have:
  1. AGW predicts a hot zone in the upper troposphere at low lattitudes, which solar forcing would also cause. Observations are not yet accurate enough to determine whether there is a hot zone or not – three groups working with the same data have reached three different conclusions.
Now, when UAH first started reconstructing global temperatures from the satellite data, they proclaimed loudly that their results proved the world was actually cooling. Others expressed doubt that their data was accurate enough to say that and independently analysed the same data and not only came to a different conclusion, they also identified the mistake that UAH had made. UAH corrected the mistake and, sure enough, they suddenly had global warming. Over a number of years they’ve corrected even more mistakes and every single time the global warming signal coming from their data became stronger.

So when their data was used to say that the world was cooling and this disproved AGW, sceptics were right to say “Your data isn’t accurate enough to make that claim”.

Now we have people claiming that their data shows the hot zone is missing. Sceptics are just as right to say “Your data isn’t accurate enough to make that claim”. (Note that I’m using “sceptic” in the true sense here; I reserve “skeptic” for those who are willing to believe absolutely anything at all, even a set of things that are mutually inconsistent, provided it is contrary to the mainstream view, which they don’t like the implications of.)

Once again, we have three different groups comparing tropospheric temperatures, and they conclude every one of the possible conclusions between them (i.e. the upper troposphere is cooler than the lower, the upper troposphere is the same temperature as the lower, and the upper troposphere is warmer than the lower). As the paper co-authored by one of the people from UAH responsible for one of those conclusions and for the earlier conclusions that the world was actually cooling said, we just can’t tell.

As the commenter jshore said in the aforementioned Skeptical Science article:

This whole thing reminds me of the “God of the Gaps” argument. Originally, the UAH analysis of the satellite data showed the troposphere to be cooling globally…in contradiction to the surface record…and this was a major “skeptic” talking point. Then, a longer record and corrections for problems in the analysis (like the neglect of orbital decay of the satellites) turned the global cooling trend into a global warming trend, but it wasn’t as strong as at the surface…and this was still a major “skeptic” talking point. Now that a still longer record and further corrections (along with a completely independent analysis of the satellite record by the RSS group) show that the trend found by satellites matches the trend found at the surface globally within error bars, the “skeptic” talking point has become the trend in the tropics. And, no doubt, when that is resolved, they will find something else to point to! No matter how little the “gaps” are, there is always room to say, “The evidence disproves AGW!”

At some point I can imagine people down at the docks proclaiming AGW is disproved because the sea level only rose 99.9 cm instead of 100 cm.
 
That’s a gross misrepresentation of the facts.
It may not be true of all their predictions but it is surely true of that one in particular.
For a start, it ignores all of the predictions that are characteristic of AGW that have obviously come true. Things like:
  1. AGW predicts that satellites will measure less heat escaping into space at the precise wavelengths that CO2 absorbs. Observations confirm AGW.
AGW also predicts less heat escaping overall, which, based on the ERBE measurements, is directly contradicted by the data.
  1. AGW predicts that the stratosphere will cool while the troposphere warms. Solar would cause both to warm. Observations confirm AGW.
Your statement is true but misleading. The page from AR4 shows contributions from five sources: solar, volcanic, greenhouse, ozone, and aerosols so while your comment is true of solar it is not true of ozone which has a signature similar to that of greenhouse warming. Observations do not confirm that the contribution is from greenhouse warming rather than from (e.g.) ozone. AGW predicts more than simply stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming. That’s the significance of the hunt for the hot spot over the tropics.

Ender
 
I believe that climate change is real but it is being caused by the sun not our naughty carbon footprints.
 
But the church does recognize the detrimental effect of pollution on the all of and more specifically on the populations that we would call the least.
Well I oppose pollution too so I guess I’m OK on that point.
So reduce CO2 emotions because it is the right thing to do
I don’t consider CO2 to be a pollutant so I have no obligation to try to reduce it. I agree, however, that I have an obligation to oppose things I consider harmful - which is why I oppose the proposed schemes aimed at reducing CO2.
…, not because going against AWG is the right-wing thing to do.
This is no more reasonable than my saying you support AGW only because it is the left-wing thing to do. I have no doubt about your sincerity and you are unjustified in doubting mine.

Ender
 
Anyway, back on Planet Earth: the anti-science thinking that is so common in American Evangelical Christians is both well-known and well-documented. I’ve read that fewer Americans accept Evolution today than 100 years ago, for example, despite the Catholic Church having a very accommodating stance for fifty years and the following statement by Pope John Paul II in 1996:
"In his encyclical Humani Generis (1950), my predecessor Pius XII has already affirmed that there is no conflict between evolution and the doctrine of the faith regarding man and his vocation, provided that we do not lose sight of certain fixed points…Today, more than a half-century after the appearance of that encyclical, some new findings lead us toward the recognition of evolution as more than a hypothesis. In fact it is remarkable that this theory has had progressively greater influence on the spirit of researchers, following a series of discoveries in different scholarly disciplines. The convergence in the results of these independent studies – which was neither planned nor sought – constitutes in itself a significant argument in favor of the theory."ewtn.com/library/PAPALDOC/JP961022.HTM

In spite of that, consider the responses of adults to the question** “Human beings, as we know them, developed from earlier species of animals.”:**
Bolding mine:

Quite a misleading question!

If that is indeed, how the question was worded.

If I think animals are a different species of life than humans - how do I answer?

If I think humans share 98.4% DNA structure to other species chimpanzees ] but it’s the 1.6% that differentiates us from animals - how do I answer?

Science also tells us we share 50% DNA with bananas. It’s that other 50% that differentiates me from a banana.
Science also tells us one 10th of human DNA is virus. It’s that other 90% that differentiates me from a virus.
Science also says that ALL humans share 99.9% DNA. It’s that other .01% that differentiates me from everyone else.
Science also says we share DNA with mice - dogs - starfish - trees.

The question doesn’t even distinguish between animal species.

The problem is one of reductionism in this question**, the idea that beings can be reduced to merely their parts.

This question holds that the sum of the parts is all that a thing is. And in this evolution question, Humans become animals, animals become human.

Common sense perception tells us that, viruses - mice - apes- bananas - trees and people are clearly different things, however much they may share genes, It is a recognition of the fact that form of a thing - matters… just as much as does matter of that form, - that makes it up.

The question and resulting answer would depend on attitude or opinion of / to the definitions of the words ** “animal”** and “developed”.

Words have value to attitude and opinion. Words do not present just technical details, but they express and create attitudes. To convince yourself, try greeting your G/F today / tonight either as “my darling” or as “my swine”, using the same expression and tone of voice. ]

Does my answer reflect what I truly know or think about evolution?

Since I believe, I’m evolving as I type this. Since I believe, a blackbird is not a finch nor is it a stork, but each evolves.

I would not be anti-science nor would I be an anti-evolutionist.

It would be wrong assessment of my answer.

Before you, a "scientist ", uses this question as evidence for what you think you know - I’d suggest some objectivity.

Your claim that people who don’t believe in evolution are somehow related to anti-science needs referential evidence. One could very well not believe in evolution as it’s presented and be all for science, indeed even be a scientist.

You have a misguided idea that to embrace science means to accept all unproven hypothesis created by science, IMHO. Not so!

PS Dr Millers job is to sell science funding to America. I wonder what would happen to funding policy if he found Americans well versed in science? Could this bias his model?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top