J
JasonSB
Guest
Ah, yes – the IPCC never predicted global warming could lead to floods, did they? Oh, wait: “Available research suggests a significant future increase in heavy rainfall events in many regions, including some in which the mean rainfall is projected to decrease. The resulting increased flood risk poses challenges to society, physical infrastructure and water quality.” (Emphasis mine.)2010 - From Jason - Decreasing water supply to the Murray-Darling, Cai 2008
2010 March: Murray Darling Floods
So it seems that you have actually provided evidence supporting the IPCC. Congratulations.
I assume you’re not actually trying to claim that the drought is over and now there’s nothing more to worry about in the Murray-Darling, are you? That the “decreasing water supply” has reversed itself? You know, something that actually contradicts that paper?
“Increased precipitation intensity and variability is projected to increase the risks of flooding and drought in many areas (high confidence).” ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch3s3-es.html
Why are you making my arguments for me?
Congratulations. You’ve just proven that what’s constraining Australia’s wheat crop is climactic conditions, not insufficient CO2. After all, the bumper crop is not because there was more CO2 this year than last but because the weather played nice. Guess what increased CO2 is going to do to climactic conditions, John…2010 Aug: Australia’s wheat crop forecast up 14% and may go higher if it stops raining.
No, just evidence that some people still don’t understand the difference between climate and weather.… [Proof that winter is cold] …
It’s Globull Warming!!
Let me explain it this way:
Brisbane has a warmer climate than Melbourne. According to Wikipedia, about 6.5 °C warmer.
Does this mean that it can never be hotter in Melbourne than in Brisbane?
Does this mean that it can never be colder in Brisbane than in Melbourne?
Does this mean that if Melbourne ever gets a heatwave we would immediately assume that the theory that Melbourne has a cooler climate than Brisbane has been disproved and we should now expect Melbourne to have a warmer climate than Brisbane?
If you answered “No” to all of the above because of reasoning like “Even though the normal temperature relationship can be overridden by short-term weather patterns, the long term average difference remains the same” or “Brisbane is closer to the equator so of course it has a warmer climate, duh”, then why don’t you apply the same logic when the climate becomes warmer due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses rather than because you’re moving closer to the equator? Why do you assume that the climate predictions of AGW can be falsified by short-term weather? And why do you think that AGW predicts winter won’t ever be cold again???
Did you actually read the paper they’re citing? “Cautiously optimistic” would be a reasonable summation. It’s also worth noting that the reason they are optimistic is not because they think more CO2 will make everything groovy. In fact, they expect problems ranging from increased evaporation rates to higher ozone levels and faster-growing pathogens. The reason they’re “cautiously optimistic” is because they think there are big efficiency gains still on the table and bringing everyone up to the same level of efficiency (together with transgenic approaches to breeding for resistance to the increasing problem of soil-borne pathogens and not too many crop-protecting chemicals being removed) may allow enough food to be grown for the world’s population by 2050.However, because some people never quite get it, even when it hits them in the face, there’s this - Scientists Say Global Warming Could Increase Food Production
Meanwhile, the link I provided clearly never “hit you in the face” because you think one paper that has so far only been cited by one other and that is cautiously optimistic that the obstacles presented by AGW can be overcome somehow over-rules all the other peer-reviewed papers pointing out just how big those obstacles are.
Two fairly obvious thoughts spring to mind:
- Not being able to predict exactly what will happen is not the same as not being able to predict at all.
- Uncertainty is not your friend. Do you choose not to insure your house because you aren’t certain it’s going to burn down? Things are just as likely to be worse than predicted.