A must read letter from Tim Ball about his new book regarding how the science has been misused to defend AGW.
Letter was published today on
climatechangedebate.org Book publication date is December 15, 2010 but so far only on Kindle on Amazon. Three reviews so far.
Re: [climatescience] Tim Ball - What’s “Slaying the Sky Dragon” ?
The book emerged from the general pattern that the climate debate has
followed. Very few people are qualified climatologists, even most of the
so-called skeptics and I am constantly distressed by the lack of knowledge
and context. This was the point of my presentation at the first Heartland
‘skeptics’ conference in New York, but was missed or not understood by most.
I heard many examples of incorrect science and witnessed many examples of
people not knowing the context of their work at that conference.
The work of Steve McIntyre was a classic example of the problem that
explains how the IPCC and CRU people were able to do what they did on such a
scale and for so long. McIntyre a statistician with special skills in
graphics displays saw the hockey stick graph at a non-climate conference and
immediately knew what was wrong and why. He knew nothing about weather or
climate an though he was aquick study he still knows very little. Climate
scientists or at least people claiming to be climatologists, especially
those working with climate models, used individual specialist components but
misused, sometimes by accident and other times deliberately and sometimes
both. A good example of this was Andrew Weaver a lead author for the climate
model chapters in the IPCC Reports who said he was a climatologist. He wrote
an article in a local newspaper and I wrote a rebuttal. He summoned me to
his office and within ten minutes I knew he knew very little about climate.
I also determined he was a computer modeller who hose ocean/atmosphere
interactions as good opportunity to test his modelling skills. He stopped
listing himself as a climatologist. Incidentally, he clearly knew he was in
danger of being exposed because I entered his office put my backpack down
and he said, “I hope you don’t have a microphone in that thing.” I replied,
“somebody’s paranoia is showing.”
I watched this pattern develop in the 1960s and 1970s as the social sciences
started applying statistics to their research. Most were escapees from
mathematics so disciplines like economics and psychology started requiring
they have some statistics training. They usually failed. As a result a book
was produced called Statistical Packages for the Social Sciences (SPSS). It
was packaged programs for things like Trend Surface Analysis, Spectral
Analysis, and many other forms of statistical analysis of data. All you had
to do was plug the data in and a number would pop out. It was a disaster and
thousands maybe millions of papers were produced with analysis of data that
was absolutely meaningless. One classic example you can research if you have
interest was the complete misuse of Trend Surface by British geomorphologist
Cuchlaine King. It destroyed her career.
The purpose of our book was to have me provide an overall context of
climatology as a generalist discipline and then explain how the various
specialist components were misused. Beyond the statistical and graphing
problems Mcintyre identified were the misuse of dendroclimatology. I had
worked with early tree ring specialists using a long term modern and
historical record to regress against tree rings and thus extend the
temperature record into the past. The problem, as I kept trying to tell
them was that tree rings were growth rings that were in most cases about
precipitation not temperature. The various chapters in the book are written
by specialists explaining how fundamental and devastating misuses of their
area occurred by official climate science. Sometimes in the early days in
some areas it was difficult to determine if the misuse and errors were just
that, but it became apparent to me many years ago that the pattern was too
frequent and too pervasive to be anything other than deliberate.
Tim Ball