On the other hand, if the Synoptics’ timing is wrong, that leaves a different question unanswered. If the Cleansing of the Temple didn’t happen in Holy Week, but a year or two earlier, that would surely mean it couldn’t have had any immediate connection with the decision by Annas and Caiaphas to have Jesus arrested and sentenced to death. Are we prepared to accept that there was no such close connection between the two events?
Just my opinion.
Just because the temple incident could have happened earlier doesn’t necessarily mean that it had no close connection with Jesus’ crucifixion. The demonstration at the temple was what put Jesus on the map, but it wasn’t the definitive deal breaker (‘Jesus must die and soon’) that the synoptics make it out to be.
The common argument against an early temple cleansing (assuming it happened only once) is that it would have been too early; it is claimed that the disturbance would not have gone unpunished for two or three years. But that’s only assuming that the cleansing was a sort of huge riot like you see in the movies, something that the text doesn’t really require. (Who knows, it could have been just a small-scale demonstration. Enough to make the priests antagonistic, but not big enough to make them arrest Him on the spot.) Not only that; even the synoptics share the same problem of delayed response by the authorities. (In the synoptic timeline, it takes them several days before they get around to arresting Jesus.) In any case, John 5 claims that the Jewish authorities already want to kill Jesus by His second visit to the city.
But even if the Jewish authorities did want to arrest Him, they could never do so because He was too slippery for them, and because whenever He was in Jerusalem He was surrounded by His Galilean followers and admirers. Arresting Him outright would be too risky.
If anything, I don’t see the need to regard the version in John’s gospel as somehow being less historical (as admittedly a few authors did): that the raising of Lazarus was the straw that broke the camel’s back. The temple incident antagonized the Jewish authorities toward Jesus; the incident with Lazarus (and possibly the connected triumphal entry too) made them want to definitively get rid of Him.
Reports of Jesus’ miracle-working confirmed the fears of Jewish leaders that the people were seeing Him as a sort of prophet or a messianic figure. I mean, the temple incident was still relatively minor when compared to that: Jesus at best could still be dismissed as a madman or an attention-seeker. But in a public festival such as Passover, just about anything could be a cause of unrest. Jesus attracting attention to Himself by His (claimed) resuscitation of the dead, making Himself look like a prophet or a messianic figure,
in the environs of Jerusalem
during Passover season, wouldn’t have helped. The danger scale just went upward.