Still a bad analogy. There’s a small but definitely non-zero chance of getting an STD from your spouse even if both of you are 100% faithful (maybe she got HIV from coming in contact with infected blood while doing first aid, for instance). Is sex within marriage still “Russian Roulette”?
Try it from another perspective: he’s bound and determined to have his one night stand. He’s got a condom in his pocket. After giving him your counsel about going to Bourbon Street (which might convince him but might not), do you also tell him to leave the condom behind?
That’s just extremely risky behavior, going out to randomly hook up with strangers. It is in the same category as binge drinking and reckless driving. Some people will end up ruining their lives or getting killed, with such behavior. I would be definitely very scared if someone I know would plan to hook up with a random stranger on Bourbon Street. There’s the risk of STDs, being robbed, etc. A Catholic priest was actually killed in 1997, he was found stabbed in a Bourbon Street hotel room.
Someone behaving like this really needs help, and it goes way beyond condoms. He shouldn’t be on Bourbon Street, in the first place. I wouldn’t frankly care whether he has a condom in his pocket, I would just try to talk some sense into him, and prevent him from going out in the first place.
Now more specifically about condoms and STDs, I did some reading and let me tell you what I found: apparently, the prevalence of STDs dramatically increased in the USA. One out of 4 teenage girl or college student has some kind of STD; one out of 5 adult is infected with genital herpes. Thus, anyone engaging in random promiscuous sex is practically guaranteed to catch some nasty stuff sooner or later. And that’s not even in Africa, it’s here in the USA. Of course, if the overall prevalence of STDs in a young population is 25%, the prevalence among the sexually active and promiscuous segment of this population must be higher, easily above 50%.
Actually, both HPV, genital herpes, and hepatitis B as well, are transmitted by skin-to-skin contact, oral sex, and even by french kissing when wounds are present. Chlamydia is also transmitted among people using condoms. I checked out several sources this afternoon and there appears to be consensus regarding this. Yes, you may decrease the risk of transmission by 60% to 80% when using a condom, but such degree of protection is simply not enough. Also, the failure rate for transmission of HIV virus seems to be as high as 30% during a 1-year period of sexual activity, which is abysmal. Apparently, the microscopic pores in latex are more than one order of magnitude larger than the size of HIV and other viruses, and thus those viruses can penetrate the condom even in the absence of a macroscopically visible tear or hole.
The bottom line seems to be this: stay abstinent or have monogamous sex with a partner who was tested for STDs and is free of disease, if you want to be safe. Promiscuous sex in a society in which 25% of people are infected with some form of STD, can only lead to trouble. And no, condoms are not the answer since they cannot effectively block the transmission of STDs.
Just enter “condom failure rate” or “condom STD” into your search engine if you want more.