P
PassingThru
Guest
Well, I do not think we will get any data that can correlate all your factors. The study that was linked earlier in the discussion took family size (ie number of births per woman) as well as contraception rates and abortion rates all into account. I think it would be fair to say, as a whole, people are still having sex at a similar rate over time. How we would know, I have no idea.Passingthru, your statistical logic makes sense to me. What we would need to determine a stronger case (or any case, as you have shown we don’t have one right now) for causation is data about rates of intercourse in societies before and after contraceptives are introduced or become prevalent. Also usefull would be stats on the rates of current sexual activity among fertile women. Are they abstaining? Sexually active? Use the pill? How often do they engage in intercourse?
There is NO data to support this claim. Lets run with it regardless. From the data we do know, 90% of the population using contraception, these would be the people you are postulating would be having unwanted babies, yet they are not producing abortions at the rate we would expect if there was parity, which is 90% of the abortions. So, even if they are having a truckload of “unfair” sex, they are not producing the abortions, which is the entire point.I think the Catholic assumption is that intercourse happens *so much more *with contraception, that despite the decreased *rate of pregnancies per instance of intercourse *due to successful contraception, there are more unwanted, and psychologically “unfair” pregnancies, that there are more abortions overall.
The second study that Barb brought up further supports the idea that with better access to reliable contraception, the lower the abortion rate drops. These are statistics, not reasons or morals.
Well, its even worse than that. Here is the line from the earlier study:Your number of 80-90 percent of women/couples contracepting was for sexually active women, right? If so, this discounts an unknown number of women who are not having sex for any reason. One reason could be that they desire not to become pregnant (I know this is conjuecture, not data, but I’m pretty sure it still happens). Is it possible that if we included all biologically fertile women (sexually active or not) in the denominator, that we’d find only 54 percent contracepting? If it were any less than that, then we would, indeed, have a direct correlation between using contraceptives and procuring abortions.
31% of women do not need a method because they are infertile; are pregnant, postpartum or trying to become pregnant; have never had intercourse; or are not sexually active.
Even using this *very *generous number, you do not get below 54%. This is why I can not see a connection between contraception and abortion, using these statistics.