Coronavirus Perspective - Richard A. Epstein

[Cathoholic]

Hat tip to @Blakes here.

Coronavirus Perspective​

by Richard A. Epstein March 16, 2020

The world is in a full state of panic about the spread and incidence of COVID-19. The latest world-wide tallies, as of 12 PM March 2020 are:

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The most dramatic news of the day has been the sudden spike in the number of Italian cases, totaling 24,747 with 1,809 deaths, which may grow to exceed the 3,099 in China.

Overlooked is the good news coming out of China, where the latest report shows 16 new cases and 14 new deaths, suggesting that the number of deaths in the currently unresolved group will be lower than the 5.3 percent conversion rate in the cases resolved to date. In my view, we will see a similar decline in Italy, for reasons that I shall outline in the remainder of this article.

From this available data, it seems more probable than not that the total number of cases world-wide will peak out at well under 1 million, with the total number of deaths at under 50,000 (up about eightfold). In the United States, if the total death toll increases at about the same rate, the current 67 deaths should translate into about 500 deaths at the end. Of course, every life lost is a tragedy—and the potential loss of 50,000 lives world-wide would be appalling—but those deaths stemming from the coronavirus are not more tragic than others, so that the same social calculus applies . . .

These are deeply contrarian estimates. In dealing with any future prediction it is necessary to develop some model. Right now, the overwhelming consensus, based upon the most recent reports, is that the rate of infection will continue to increase so that the most severe interventions are needed to control what will under the worst of circumstances turn into a high rate of death. This pessimistic view is well captured in an op-ed by Nicholas Kristof and Stuart Thompson, who offer this graph. . . .

. . . Based on the data, I believe that the current dire models radically overestimate the ultimate death toll. There are three reasons for this.

First, they underestimate the rate of adaptive responses, which should slow down the replication rate. Second, the models seem to assume that the vulnerability of infection for the older population—from 70 upward—gives some clue as to the rate of spread over the general population, when it does not. Third, the models rest on a tacit but questionable assumption that the strength of the virus will remain constant throughout this period, when in fact its potency should be expected to decline over time, in part because of temperature increases.

As of March 16, the data from the United States falls short of justifying the draconian measures that are now being implemented. . . .

Coronavirus Perspective | Hoover Institution Coronavirus Perspective

 

[7_Sorrows]

I read this evening that it took ? days to reach the first 100,000 cases, 11 days to reach the 2nd 100,000 and only 4 days to reach the 3rd 100,000 cases. I put a ?
in because I cannot remember the number of days before the first 100,000 cases.

So they have escalated pretty quickly in the last 2 weeks.

 

[Minks]

I THOUGHT that I first heard about this particular virus around mid-December, in idle chitchat with no worry attached, and then with a bit of concern (for China, not concern that it would spread) between Christmas and New Years, like maybe the 29th or 30th, from a comments section following a news article about something that had to do with treatment of Catholics in China.

I can’t find that now, but I did find someone’s comment from Jan 21, wondering if China had a bad flu situation going on, and hoping it wouldn’t be spreading beyond its borders.

I didn’t hear about it again until sometime during Feb. I “talk” to a lot of people across the world, though, and it’s difficult, sometimes to recall which site I was visiting. Lol! Not that my info is important, just how it unfolded to me.

 

[dvdjs]

So they have escalated pretty quickly in the last 2 weeks.

Yes. Many countries with major outbreaks have stemmed the progression, but in the US we are still doubling every ~three days. That is the rapid escalation that you observe.

Suppose on March 1 you had a penny, then on the next day doubled that to 2 cents, then on the next day doubled it to 4 cents, and so on.

On April 1, you would have over $10 million.