Coronavirus Toll in New York

[PetraG]

Coronavirus death toll in the state of New York between the first deaths (reported March 15) and ~noon, April 21, 2020: 19,410 (per United States COVID: 34,807,813 Cases and 623,435 Deaths - Worldometer).
This is an illness for which the time that serious cases spent hospitalized or in the ICU is high; that is, a minimum of about 7 days or more even for young patients.

For comparison, death tolls in the state of New York by cause of death in all of 2017 (per CDC):
Total:
Heart disease: 44,092
Cancer: 34,956
Accidents: 7,687
Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease: 7,258
Stroke: 6,264
Flu/Pneumonia: 4,517
Alzheimer’s Disease: 3,521
Hypertension: 2,699
Septicemia: 2,296

PS The tragic death of the five-year-old daughter of two first responders in Michigan, among others, should serve as a warning that this virus should not be automatically assumed to present a low hazard to children or young adults.

Whether primarily due to the novelty of the virus or for some other reason, it should be clear from the experiences of the state of New York and the Italian region of Lombardy that this is a serious disease that presents an unusually serious threat to the intensive care capacity of jurisdictions that suffer from a large outbreak.

That’s why we’re stuck at home, folks. I think it is reasonable to discuss which restrictions provide more or less results in terms of preventing large outbreaks, but let’s agree that there is no US region, whether urban or rural, that is better-prepared than New York or Milan were when it comes to medically managing a large outbreak. That will not be true unless the capacity of public health researchers to trace outbreaks is far higher than it currently is in most (if not all) areas of the US.

 

[goout]

I might have faulty statistics but:
During the peak of the virus deaths were at about 700 per day. Even if you extrapolate that 60 days you have 4200…(is that possibly limited to NYC? I don’t know)

In any case, it is a lot of death. And it still pales in comparison to many other causes of death.
We are in danger of making a perverse idol of a virus. The reaction to this virus is becoming out of proportion, when taken in the context of the whole range of health problems.

Here’s just one indicator:
Smoking is responsible for exponentially more deaths than this virus, and is probably a major contributor to crappy lung function (add in diabetes and HBP)…and yet our government did not ban the sale of cigarettes! That is an outrageous case of government irresponsibility. And they cry goes up against banning cigarettes because of…get this now…our freedoms are precious.
If we are to be consistent, start with banning the sale of cigarettes, and junk food, and alcohol…and let’s get serious about mandating good health practices. Restaurants don’t kill people, cigarettes and bad health disciplines kill people.

If we are not really willing to do that, then we are making a perverse idol of this virus.

We as a people are going to have pull up our responsibility pants and start living again. Safely, yes. And with respect for the vulnerable, yes. But not idolizing a virus.
If this cocooning continues indefinitely we will have a poverty pandemic, with all of the accompanying problems that poverty statistically brings: despair, crime, malnutrition, poor health.

 

[goout]

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
As of April 19th:
9562 deaths with confirmed positive covid 19 tests.

 

[PetraG]

COVID-19: Latest Data - NYC Health
As of April 19th:
9562 deaths with confirmed positive covid 19 tests.

This is of course a problem around the world. There are people dying at home who aren’t counted because there is no capacity to have them tested post-mortem and there are people in hospitals and care centers who are classified by symptoms instead of by identification of the virus who also die before they can be tested.

 

[dvdjs]

As of April 19th:
9562 deaths with confirmed positive covid 19 tests.

Are you comparing NY state and NY City numbers?

 

[PaulinVA]

In any case, it is a lot of death. And it still pales in comparison to many other causes of death.
We are in danger of making a perverse idol of a virus. The reaction to this virus is becoming out of proportion, when taken in the context of the whole range of health problems.

I don’t think that a contagious disease can be compared to lifestyle diseases like diabetes or obesity.

We as a people are going to have pull up our responsibility pants and start living again. Safely, yes. And with respect for the vulnerable, yes. But not idolizing a virus.

This seems to be some sort of, “We’ll show that virus! We’ll go about our business and not let it win”. The virus is a string of RNA. You can’t show it who’s boss. You can’t scare it. If you reopen things too quickly it will infect people and it will kill them.

 

[LeafByNiggle]

A deflection.

 

[goout]

goout:

As of April 19th:
9562 deaths with confirmed positive covid 19 tests.

Are you comparing NY state and NY City numbers?

Those are NYC numbers in the article I referenced. They are reporting the higher numbers by way of speculation that has no testing backup. In an endeavor that screams for accuracy and honesty, that is troubling.

and I doubt the 9000 figure for NYC, since the reports were of 700 per day at peak.
Even if you take 60 days, that’s not 9000.
(I am not downplaying the loss of life here, that’s not my purpose. )

 

[goout]

A deflection.

A deflection. Am I supposed to repeat your post?
?

 

[goout]

goout:

In any case, it is a lot of death. And it still pales in comparison to many other causes of death.
We are in danger of making a perverse idol of a virus. The reaction to this virus is becoming out of proportion, when taken in the context of the whole range of health problems.

I don’t think that a contagious disease can be compared to lifestyle diseases like diabetes or obesity.

We as a people are going to have pull up our responsibility pants and start living again. Safely, yes. And with respect for the vulnerable, yes. But not idolizing a virus.

This seems to be some sort of, “We’ll show that virus! We’ll go about our business and not let it win”. The virus is a string of RNA. You can’t show it who’s boss. You can’t scare it. If you reopen things too quickly it will infect people and it will kill them.

Then you need to ban cigarettes.
And you need to permanently shut down our public gatherings, because the flu.

I understand what a virus is. Thanks.

 

[dvdjs]

Those are NYC numbers in the article I referenced

The OP had this:

Coronavirus death toll in the state of New York between the first deaths (reported March 15) and ~noon, April 21, 2020: 19,410 (per United States COVID: 34,807,813 Cases and 623,435 Deaths - Worldometer).

 

[goout]

goout:

In any case, it is a lot of death. And it still pales in comparison to many other causes of death.
We are in danger of making a perverse idol of a virus. The reaction to this virus is becoming out of proportion, when taken in the context of the whole range of health problems.

I don’t think that a contagious disease can be compared to lifestyle diseases like diabetes or obesity.

Why not? The government has mandated lifestyle changes to prevent illness. That’s the proposal to battle this virus: change lifestyles.

Cigarettes kill way way WAY more people than this virus ever will.

The government needs to step in and mandate lifestyle changes like it did with this virus.
I don’t want people dying from cigarettes (seriously I don’t, plus I am allergic to them and it chafes me that people can smoke poison and subject others to it)

 

[F_Marturana]

thank you. 19,000 deaths in just 6 weeks. It’s incredible. And not anything usual. The refrain, that there are many deaths per year due to other conditions, doesn’t apply. These death happened in a matter of weeks, even after social distancing.

Thank you for this post,

 

[PaulinVA]

Then you need to ban cigarettes.
And you need to permanently shut down our public gatherings, because the flu.

I understand what a virus is. Thanks.

I don’t think you get it.

The covid-19 virus is something the you give to other people. It currently has no vaccine.

Why not? The government has mandated lifestyle changes to prevent illness. That’s the proposal to battle this virus: change lifestyles.

No, they haven’t. Not mandated.

Cigarettes kill way way WAY more people than this virus ever will.

So, smoking is voluntary. Catching Covid-19 is not.

The government needs to step in and mandate lifestyle changes like it did with this virus.
I don’t want people dying from cigarettes (seriously I don’t, plus I am allergic to them and it chafes me that people can smoke poison and subject others to it)

No.

 

[PetraG]

This seems to be some sort of, “We’ll show that virus! We’ll go about our business and not let it win”. The virus is a string of RNA. You can’t show it who’s boss. You can’t scare it. If you reopen things too quickly it will infect people and it will kill them.

I think of being “brave” about an epidemic as kind of like being “brave” about crossing a flooded stream. The virus and the flood do not care if you are brave or not. You don’t become more or less safe by doing what you think is more or less safe, either. Conversely, not using a good bridge because you are afraid of the churning waters under the bridge doesn’t make you “more safe,” either.

Making good decisions depends on getting information and using it wisely. That is our problem. We don’t have as much information as might help us make less restrictive decisions. It is like dealing with floodwaters in the pitch dark with only a single floodlight. We can see a little, but not nearly enough.

The economy, in contrast, depends very much on the emotions and biases of those doing (or choosing not to do) the loaning, working, producing, buying and selling. We have physical needs, and we generally meet them via the economy. The economy is part of our well-being, too, then.

Cigarettes kill way way WAY more people than this virus ever will.

A difference is that there aren’t any asymptomatic carriers of smoke inhalation.
It is also rare to the point of being unknown to die of cigarette smoking a matter days after smoking your one and only cigarette.

 

[LeafByNiggle]

I might have faulty statistics but:
During the peak of the virus deaths were at about 700 per day. Even if you extrapolate that 60 days you have 4200…(is that possibly limited to NYC? I don’t know)

You also have faulty math. 700 x 60 = 42,000. Not 4,200.

 

[PetraG]

You also have faulty math. 700 x 60 = 42,000. Not 4,200.

The fact that there are already 19k, most in NYC, was the red flag on that number.
Oh, well. We’ve all done it.

 

[PetraG]

thank you. 19,000 deaths in just 6 weeks. It’s incredible. And not anything usual. The refrain, that there are many deaths per year due to other conditions, doesn’t apply. These death happened in a matter of weeks, even after social distancing.

Thank you for this post,

It is not the norm for a country, but the numbers New York saw gives a sense of how devastating a local outbreak can be. This stuff is nothing to mess around with.

A social and economic shutdown is nothing to mess around with either, though. We need to be able to get back into large groups again. We just cannot afford to do it yet, because of the repercussions that follow from a large outbreak when the ability to trace contacts and assess immunity levels are as poor as those currently are. We really need widespread virus testing, antibody testing, and a vaccine.