My argument with you is that since criminal sanctions are only one part of the crime stat picture, and that it is more easy to prove that punishment as deterrence does not affect violent crime rates (than proving it does lower crime rates) then using the deterrence argument for capital punishment does not wash…
It’s easy to prove deterrence, because it is a truism that all prospects of a negative outcome deter some, plus many others, as I detailed.
It appears that you have not read the links.
For instance: Since Canada dropped the death sentence homicide rates have dropped by 44%…
One analysis, which I, now cannot, find, showed that “death penalty eligible murders” in Canada actually rose after death penalty repeal, even though all murders dropped.
But, as that is not how one measures deterrence, I am not sure that matters.
Since you gave the Canada example, let me ask you, does this prove death penalty deterrence in the US?
Please not that the percentages are even greater than what you found in Canada,
- The United States has had double digit executions, annually, from 1984 - 2011 (3).
Murders are, now, at a 43 year low (1),
Murder rates are, now, at a 48 year low. (1).
It’s not surprising that death sentences are at a 37 year low (3).
- Double digit annual executions stopped in the US in 1964 and resumed in 1984 (3).
During that period, murders increased by 100%
murders in 1964 9,360 (1)
murders in 1984 18,670 (1)
- There was a moratorium on all executions in the US from 1967 to 1977 (3).
During that period, there was a 56% increase in murders (1).
murders is 1967 were 12,240 (1)
murders in 1977 were 19,120 (1)
- In the US from 1991-20011
41% drop in murders
22% drop in rapes
48% drop in robberies all from (1)
As rape/murders, robbery/murders are by, far, the most common death penalty eligible crimes, those, likely, dropped from 60-80%
TEXAS
Capital murders may have dropped by 80% or more in Texas since 1991 (1).
Murder in combination with rapes and/or robberies makes up, by far, the largest percentage of death penalty eligible murders.
Murders have dropped 58%, rapes 20% and robberies 41% (1).
A much lower occurrence of rape/murders and robbery/murders equals a much lower number of death sentences.
The per capita rape/murders and robbery/murders will have dropped even more dramatically, because Texas has seen a population explosion during this period.
Murders rates have dropped 71%, rapes 46% and robberies 61% (1).
The drop in capital murders is but the most obvious and pronounced explanation for a drop in death sentences.
Contributions to that drop also include:
- Plea bargains to life without parole (LWOP) , a plea only possible with the death penalty;
- Two classes of murderers have been excluded from the death penalty, that being those under 18 and those with mental retardation; and
- Depending upon conditions within individual jurisdictions, with a downturn in the economy, the up front costs of the death penalty may have caused some jurisdictions to offer either plea bargains or lesser than death penalty option trials, to a degree more than in the past.
many others
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- United States Crime Data, from FBI UCR
disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
The Disaster Center is a convenient and reliable source for crime data
Texas
murders rapes robberies
1991 2652 9266 47900
2011 1126 7439 28395
dif 1526 18 27 19505
less 58% 20% 41%
US
murders rapes robberies
1991 24,700 106,590 687, 730
2011 14,612 83,425 354,396
dif 10,088 23,165 333,334
less 41% 22% 48%
Source: Disaster Center
disastercenter.com/crime/
- “Death Penalty, Deterrence & Murder Rates: Let’s be clear”
prodpinnc.blogspot.com/2009/03/death-penalty-deterrence-murder-rates.html
- Capital Punishment, 2010 - Statistical Tables, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Tracy Snell, Dec 2011, see Figure 1, page 1 and Table 8, page 12,
bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/cp10st.pdf