Demographic Winter

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I watched the program with that title on EWTN last night and was curious what others thought about it. Here’s the trailer for it: pisgahview.net/?p=5131. It put a lot of things into perspective for me regarding our economic crisis and how declining birth rates and increasing numbers of elderly effect it. So, what can we do about it as people of faith?
 
I watched half of what I’d taped. I’ll watch the remainder tonight.

Simply put, it’s partially to blame for the cause of the failure of social programs in the U.S. (Social Security, Medicare).

A society can’t continue to contracept and kill future generations of tax payers without there being long lasting and destructive consequences.

Fr. Mitch had an interesting guest on last night on EWTN Live. Fr. Mitch and this oncology doctor talked about ABC use changing dating relationships, spousal relationships, society in general and women’s physical health.
 
“Demographic Winter” talked about Russia paying couples to have children and even then people won’t raise children.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_European_Union

"A low fertility rate means retirement age workers are not entirely replaced by younger workers joining the workforce. The EU faces a potential future dominated by an ever-increasing population of retired citizens, without enough younger workers to fund (via taxes) retirement programs or other state welfare agendas.[13]

A low fertility rate, without supplement from immigration, also suggests a declining overall EU population,[14] which further suggests economic contraction or even a possible economic crisis.[15] While some media have noted the ‘baby crisis’ in the EU,[16] and some governments have noted the problem,[17] the UN and other multinational authorities continue to warn of an impending crisis."
 
Della said:
So, what can we do about it as people of faith?
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This should be pretty obvious. 😉

When individual circumstances do not permit this, then we can be vocal in our support for larger families, both within our own families and among friends.

In our familes, encourage home schooling and help out with our neices and nephews and grandkids.

There’s only one way out of a “demographic winter.”
 
Yes, another aspect I thought interesting is that, as you will see when you watch the rest of the program (spoiler alert) that as more young people live on their own instead of setting up one family households more housing units are built requiring more water, electricity and other resources be used. So much for having a small “carbon footprint” due to less births.

I was thinking about the declining birthrate as regards my own family. My mom had 4 children. We all married. Of the 4 of us we have produced only 3 children to carry on our gene pool. My dh and I can’t have children, my one brother and his wife decided to have only 2 kids of which only one has had one child, my sister had 4, but only one has produced 2 sons, and my other brother’s 4 children have produced no children. Some of that has to do with health problems, but mostly it’s due to the next generation after mine simply deciding not to have children or not to marry. I can’t think we are atypical in this. Scary isn’t it, since such lack of replacement births is now the norm instead of unusual.
 
Demographic winter is the reason why the killing of the elderly is becoming a significant issue in government run social programs.
 
Della said:
I watched the program with that title on EWTN last night and was curious what others thought about it. Here’s the trailer for it: pisgahview.net/?p=5131. It put a lot of things into perspective for me regarding our economic crisis and how declining birth rates and increasing numbers of elderly effect it. So, what can we do about it as people of faith?
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I have the DVD, and the sequel.

It’s awesome but frightening.
 
Della said:
I watched the program with that title on EWTN last night and was curious what others thought about it. Here’s the trailer for it: pisgahview.net/?p=5131. It put a lot of things into perspective for me regarding our economic crisis and how declining birth rates and increasing numbers of elderly effect it. So, what can we do about it as people of faith?
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I saw the program before (PBS?), but would like to see it again. I hope it re-airs on EWTN. It was a jaw-dropping documentary.

Don Feder gave a speech on Demographic Winter two years ago at the 36th Annual March for Life Rose Dinner.*In industrialized nations, 20% of the population is over 60. By mid-point in this century, the proportion of elderly in developed nations will rise to 32%. By then, these nations will have two senior citizens for every child. Schools will be turned into nursing homes. Playgrounds will become graveyards.

The problem of paying for pensions aside, how will we even begin to care for a growing number of elderly with fewer and fewer people in their 20s and 30s? Can you say euthanasia? *

Below are the reasons he raised from the documentary:*• Abortion – Worldwide, we’re killing 42 million people a year. It’s as if an invading army killed every man woman and child in Italy – then repeated the process every year.

• Contraception – For the first time in history, just under half the world’s population of childbearing age uses some form of birth control. Some of us remember when births weren’t controlled and pregnancies weren’t planned. With all of wailing about man-made Global Warming, carbon footprints and the ozone layer, wouldn’t it be ironic if what did us in wasn’t the SUV but the IUD?

• Delayed marriage. People are marrying later and later After 35, it becomes progressively harder for a woman to have children.

• The decline of marriage and the rise of cohabitation. Not surprisingly, in relationships without commitment, people have fewer children. By the way, the left’s contribution to the coming population crisis is to push the one type of “marriage” (and I use the term advisedly) that can’t conceivably produce children.

• But perhaps the most important factor is a culture (including Hollywood, the news media and academia) that tells people that children are a burden, rather than a joy; that pushes an ego-driven, live-for-the-moment ethic; a culture that tells us that contentment comes from careers, love, friendship, pets, possessions, travel, personal growth – anything and very thing except family and children. It’s a culture that can look at Sarah Palin and her beautiful family and ask why she had to have 5 children and why she didn’t abort her child with Downs Syndrome? *Don related that for humanity to have a future, we, as a people of faith can start to address the problem, the shame of abortion. He ended his speech this way:*Here’s a simple formula for understanding Demographic Winter: Those who have faith in the future have children. Those who don’t, don’t. Where does faith in the future come from? It comes from faith.

The pro-life position is based on the premise that each life, born and pre-born, is infinitely precious. How often have we heard the catch-phrase “the children are our future.” To put it another way, without children, there is no future.

Once people truly understand this, perhaps they’ll stop aborting their children. Perhaps they’ll stop preventing conception. Perhaps they’ll start having large families again. Perhaps they’ll give children the love they need and deserve. If humanity is to have a future, this is where it starts.
*.
 
Some ethnic groups have declining birth rates. Other ethnic groups have stable or increasing birth rates. The total population of the World continues to increase.

America’s population continues to grow but the percentage of “northern European” Americans is decreasing while the percentage of Hispanic Americans and other groups are increasing. Some US states lost population while others grew faster than the average.

Because some groups have choosen to limit the size of their families, others will assume the dominate political power position and it remains to be seen if “they” will run the ecomony any better or worse.

What also is important is the quality of education. America averages about 30% high school drop out rate, some groups much higher and some much lower. The uneducated do not lead, but they may revolt.

A proper education is woefully incomplete without a solid education in Moral values, best expressed by the Christain Faith led by the Catholic Church. But each of us has to want to learn and APPLY what is taught. Who teaches the cardinal virtues of JUSTICE, PRUDENCE, FORTITUDE, and TEMPERANCE? Which ethnic group best lives those virtues?
 
We hardly need to pick a “best” ethnic group here! :eek: That has nothing to do with the looming problem.

The problem is that EVERY country on earth that is policitally stable, economically stable and possesses some semblance of law and justice has a negative internal population growth rate. Many like the USA still have positive total population rates, but only due to continued immigration. Once the contraceptive disease spreads globally (and it steadily is), what will happen?

To me, it is clear that we are headed for a population implosion. Yes, we are still coasting in a net population growth for now, just like an airplane can gain altitude for a time when its engine begins to sputter. But once the engine no longer makes enough thrust to achieve positive lift velocity, the plane inevitably starts nosing downwards. Humanity’s engine is sputtering badly as the data shows. And we can’t expect African and South American birth rates to sustain global populations indefinately.

Aomebody asked what the solution is? Easy! Guys, bring home some flowers and a nice chilled bottle of champaign…😃
 
Della said:
Yes, another aspect I thought interesting is that, as you will see when you watch the rest of the program (spoiler alert) that as more young people live on their own instead of setting up one family households more housing units are built requiring more water, electricity and other resources be used. So much for having a small “carbon footprint” due to less births.

I was thinking about the declining birthrate as regards my own family. My mom had 4 children. We all married. Of the 4 of us we have produced only 3 children to carry on our gene pool. My dh and I can’t have children, my one brother and his wife decided to have only 2 kids of which only one has had one child, my sister had 4, but only one has produced 2 sons, and my other brother’s 4 children have produced no children. Some of that has to do with health problems, but mostly it’s due to the next generation after mine simply deciding not to have children or not to marry. I can’t think we are atypical in this. Scary isn’t it, since such lack of replacement births is now the norm instead of unusual.
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You are right, lack of replacement births is now the norm, not unusual. Both my parents came from big families, 7 live births on my mom’s side, 6 + 5 on my dad’s side (grandpa remarried after 1st wife died). My own parents had us, 8 children and later adopted a foundling. From the marriages of 7 (fortunately, all are still in the first marriage except one - divorced and remarried) out of the 9, bringing about number of children in each marriage: 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 3, 1. One brother is gay (so zero kid there) but the last one, our adopted brother is now grown, to marry in August, so there is promise of new life later (we hope).

Anyway, my husband and I have 2, who are just replacements for us; hence, we have not contributed to any net gain in the population. :o

Our Church has been right all along with its teachings on abortion, contraception and homosexuality. The first two are really big factors, the third giving a further kick towards demographic winter.

Thanks for your very timely thread, with the March for Life coming up. One way for Catholics to remind the country of the message that life of the unborn is precious.

God bless.
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Important points made, Manualman.

The history of humans is indeed long and complex and peppered with seemingly ‘great’ ideas on how to govern ourselves that, in actual application, were proven to be false and those societies faded into history.

For me, the very best idea of how to govern ourselves is stated in the Bible, especially the teachings of Jesus Christ, THE Living Son of God. See also the Book of Proverbs, Wisdom, Sirach, etc in the OT. If all, well at least enough, were properly taught and accepted Christ’s Teachings, we would not have the wars we have had, and have, and likely are to yet have. Willingly following Christ, we would find ways to eliminate abject poverty while still allowing more for those who use their abilities more successfully. The only poor that need be are those who are capable of learning and working and choose not to.

For this discussion, we are seeing what Christ may have meant when He said it is easier for a camel to enter the eye of the needle than for a rich man to enter the Kingdom of Heaven. The seemingly ready availability of affluence has tempted too many of us to forego building SOLID families in search of personal pleasures this world has to offer. Too many are chosing this world and not the next world Christ promises us.

America has been seen as the best place to succeed in providing for oursleves and our families. Democracy and Capitalism, albeit with some weaknesses, have created better lives for countless of people. But now, we seem to be loosing the idea of FAMILY -abortion, divorce, co-habitation, same sex marriage, self-centerness, etc.have destroyed too many families where the best teaching about Christ can occur. I hope we can regain it or failing that, that some new society will become the beacon shining the light of how to live according to the Teachings of Christ, THE Son of God.

IMO, we will not solve the demographic winter we ARE in, but yet to dive to its depth, without a major loss of our current affluence UNLESS we find better ways to teach and RECEIVE Christ’s teachings. Trying to reverse the declining birthrate will not happen by calls to “It’s your duty, have fun doing it” although such calls are well intended. It will reverse when enough of us realize that a proper birth rate is HOW we TRUELY LOVE one another for the LOVE OF CHRIST and our salvation HE promises.
 
This is a great documentary. And, the sequel is just as good.

Another factor mentioned in Demographic Winter is delayed childbearing due to more woman attaining higher education. None of the scholars in the film were saying that women should not earn advanced degrees. But, there are consequences. Immigrants are helping to fill the gap at the moment, but there won’t always be enough. Scarily, there is a non-profit group here in California which is pushing an anti-immigration agenda, and also to slow all population growth in general. I wonder who they think is going to care for all the elderly? Even NPR carried a story last week about the problem of the aging population.
 
You’re right, sacredcello. Immigration is the only thing that is keeping the population of America from imploding. They’re not so lucky in Russia, according to this article from the Washington Diocesan website: Propose Legislation in Russia….
 
Collapse of families is nothing new. I have occasion to read probate records at times, and it’s amazing how often you see families die out, or nearly so, and often from very large pre-WWII families.

To some degree, but evidently decreasing, there are counters. My father had three siblings, only two of whom married. My mother had only one sibling who survived. They had six children, one of whom died in childhood. Their grandchildren number ten, however, their great grandchildren number fifteen, with two on the way and a huge likelihood of considerably more. So, from two people…seventeen. Could be worse. Of course, one has to consider the spouses of the direct descendants, and their parents and grandparents, so it’s not as massive as it might seem.

Death is a certitude; birth isn’t. How do people decide to have a number of children; enough to fill in for the deaths?

There are, I think, lots of reasons people don’t have children, or many of them, but not too many reasons why they do. In my own family, mentioned above, my wife and I account for ten grandchildren, plus one on the way and a high likelihood of more. I think it just had to do with how we value children versus other things. I think that’s because both of our parents had an orientation toward having children, come what might, economically.

My wife and I didn’t go broke raising our children, but it sure was tough. They’re all adults now, and i can see what they’re facing. Young people are the most capable of having children, and the younger they are, the more likely they are to have them, unless they actively prevent it. The likelihood of a woman becoming pregnant after 30 drops off sharply. But young people generally don’t make a lot of money. And, they tend to want consumer stuff. So, it’s an internal battle.

The very strange thing about it all is that when we were newly married, my wife and I had absolutely nothing, and we were in debt besides. Sometimes I think poverty is just easier to take if you’re young, and if you don’t assume you just have to have everything right away.

I don’t know what the answer to all of this is. But I will hazard this. Never have I heard a sermon strongly encouraging people to have children. Almost never do I hear birth control condemned. One hears a lot of sermons about “social justice” and the poor and all that, and how we all ought to give to help the poor and all, but one doesn’t hear the other part of it. What about not spending on consumer goods in order to finance having children? Maybe the priests talk about that a lot somewhere, but I never hear it.

Truthfully, I don’t think most people even suspect there’s anything wrong with limiting one’s family to one or two, or even none.
 
Hate to follow myself, but I will this time. 🙂

It’s amazing how fragile human populations can be. Think about it, if 50 years went by with no births, that would be the end of the human race. Japan has a worse birth rate than even Russia does. China’s is just about as bad, and they’re building up a shortage of girls. So is India.
 
I agree that human populations are fragile. Continuance of a population is never a sure thing. That’s why it’s so scary to have watched the ‘overpopulation’ alarmists over the past half century even as the West is facing many factors which will induce DE-population.
 
Barbkw said:
Simply put, it’s partially to blame for the cause of the failure of social programs in the U.S. (Social Security, Medicare).
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Just think…the human population survived without SS, Medicare, and other social programs for millennia. Now suddenly we have a crisis because we invented an unsustainable, pyramid-funded program?
A society can’t continue to contracept and kill future generations of tax payers without there being long lasting and destructive consequences.
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It has little to do with population, but rather sustainability. Pyramid funded programs, overuse of resources, etc. have blatantly obvious consequences…maybe it’s time people engage their God-given common sense and start paying attention to all this?
 
Warrior1979 said:
It has little to do with population, but rather sustainability. Pyramid funded programs, overuse of resources, etc. have blatantly obvious consequences…maybe it’s time people engage their God-given common sense and start paying attention to all this?
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Demographic Winter is a documentary that looks at the problem of worldwide falling populations and the consequences. The problem is not limited to the US or our social programs. There are many scholars who were interviewed, from different fields including economists, demographers, social scientists, historians and policy makers from all different countries. They all agree that worldwide falling population is a serious problem, despite the fact that world population is actually growing due to people living longer. One of the experts interviewed is Phillip Longman, PhD, who wrote a fascinating book called The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What to Do About It. It’s a great read.

Personally, I never gave this issue much thought, because I always believed the lie about overpopulation. Now, as a 40 year old female and new wife, I am hoping that I still have several fertile years ahead. I spent many years absorbed in my career. This film sounded a wake up call for me.
 
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