Aquinas attempts to generalize from the particular to the whole. which is a basic fallacy. The words: “we can see that at least some things are changing”. From that no general principle can be reached. Also in the times of Aquinas the concept of motion / change was not understood in the light of modern physics.
And at the end of his argument he says: “This everyone understands to be God.”
I would argue that modern knowledge of physics only bolsters Aquinas’ argument.
Aquinas’ argument doesn’t only encompass those things which are actually changing, it also deals with those things that have the potential to change, to be changed, or to be different from what they are. This encompasses everything from your puddle, to the foundational laws of physics that govern the structure of the universe.
Just because a thing is not in an active state of change does not mean that the principle no longer applies to it.
All things which exist in this universe appear to be contingent, there are forces external to themselves which govern their current state. We know this is true even for seemingly constant things like the laws of physics because of our studies of quantum mechanics, relativity, etc.
There is no evidence that anything in the whole of material existence is not acted on and influenced by external forces.
Based on the definition of potentiality given in your link:
any “possibility” that a thing can be said to have
we can arrive at the following.
A: The laws of physics do not appear to be absolute at the quantum level. This means that there are forces external to those laws which influence their operation. There is also some evidence that certain “constants” shifted over time, especially in the moments immediately following the big bang.
B: All observed physical things are influence by the laws of physics.
C: per A and B, all things are subject to changeable laws and are therefore changeable.
D: An infinite regression of changes is impossible, given that, with infinite “moments” of change prior to the current one, it would be impossible to ever reach the current point of change in the line of changes. (If there is an infinite distance to travel before I reach my current location, then I can never reach where I am because there is an infinite distance to travel before I get here.)
E: per C and D, if all physical things are changeable (contain potentiality), and change cannot regress infinitely, there must be a point at which change began. This point of commencement, this unchanging cause, is one starting point for the discernment of God.
And at the end of his argument he says: “This everyone understands to be God.”
Given the context and time of his writing, this is not an improper generalization. His world was distinctly Catholic, and pretty much every philosopher, scientist, etc, he knew would have been Catholic. This is an accurate statement given his context.
I’m going to try to make this my only post today. I’m mid-deadline, so I need to be focusing on my work. Sorry for the inconvenience.