Do extrordinary events require extrordinary evidence?

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It is time to explain something. All the numbers are equally probable. Having a specific number to have drawn in not extraordinary. What would be extraordinary is to PREDICT the result. In probability theory there is a differentiation between a-priori and a-posteriory probabilities. If you wish to talk about probabilities, at least you should learn the basic terminology and the classical theory. You don’t need to worry about Kolmogorov-space and all that good jazz, though they would be helpful.
You are playing a trick by saying that all numbers are equally probable. That is technically true, but it would be more accurate to say that they are all equally improbable. Each number drawn would be extraordinarily improbable. The number 83495785 being drawn on a certain day is an extraordinarily improbable event! But I believe it only on the media’s say so. That fact that it is probable that a number be drawn, does not make it probable that a specific number be drawn. The specific number being drawn is an extraordinarily improbable event, yes I believe it only on the testimony of the news media, which is not extraordinary evidence.
 
You are playing a trick by saying that all numbers are equally probable. That is technically true, but it would be more accurate to say that they are all equally improbable.
It does not matter what you call it.
Each number drawn would be extraordinarily improbable.
To predict the result would be improbable. Not the result itself. That is what you need to understand.
The number 83495785 being drawn on a certain day is an extraordinarily improbable event! But I believe it only on the media’s say so. That fact that it is probable that a number be drawn, does not make it probable that a specific number be drawn. The specific number being drawn is an extraordinarily improbable event, yes I believe it only on the testimony of the news media, which is not extraordinary evidence.
Obviously you don’t know the theory of probabilities and I don’t blame you for having that misconception since it is not an easy subject. If you are interested, I am willing to spend some time to explain a little of the basics, but only if you are willing to listen. I already wasted too much time on wsp, and not interested in wasting more.
 
To predict the result would be improbable. Not the result itself.
Are you claiming the fact that it is probable a number be drawn makes it probable that the number 5468584 be drawn on March 30 2011?
  • If you say yes, this is absurd
  • If you say no, then you are agreeing with me (as you did before) that that number being drawn represents an extraordinarily improbable event. It has nothing to do with whether or not I can predict it.
  • tertium non datur.
Obviously you don’t know the theory of probabilities and I don’t blame you for having that misconception since it is not an easy subject. If you are interested, I am willing to spend some time to explain a little of the basics, but only if you are willing to listen. I already wasted too much time on wsp, and not interested in wasting more.
Your scorn is noted, and please do not use a post to me to insult another poster.
You may accuse me of ignorance if you wish, but you may not say the same of Earman, the noted agnostic philosopher of science, who I already submitted to your attention and who rejects Hume’s version of EEREE.

amazon.com/Humes-Abject-Failure-Argument-Miracles/dp/0195127382/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1301427873&sr=8-1
 
Your response is as I anticipated. The subjective component re-appears in what we choose to define as an extraordinary event. Some say the tsunami was not extraordinary; the newspapers say it is. "
As I already explained earlier in this thread, some will think the word simply means unusual or infrequent, while some think it also means clashing with all known evidence of physics, etc. Tsunamis have been known to happen and to comply with the laws of physics. They are also relatively unusual, although as soon as a noticeably strong earthquake occurs, a tsunami usually follows, and Japan is used to earthquakes and determining their relative force.

So yes, there seems to be confusion over how some interpret the word. What I have already said is that we raise our standards for evidence when something completely clashes with physics and all of history.

*Someone says “Bow down to the purple alien. The purple alien is responsible for all that is before our eyes.” What is the proper response to this statement? *
As the Missourian said: “Show me.”
😉 We have a winner! Bravo on the standards of evidence (though it still seems a little vague). May I ask the same standard of evidence in regards to your God?
 
why doesn’t the extraordinary claim that there is no God require just as much extraordinary evidence as the extraordinary claim that there is a God? 😃
:confused:How is it possible that you have over 4,000 posts on here and are still making the worst argument for which you’ve probably been told hundreds of times is false, yet you still do it anyway? Who on this forum made the claim that there is no God? Do you not understand the difference between denying a claim (lack of belief) vs an outright statement of claiming that there is no God? Let me try and put it on your level. Do you believe in leprechauns? Well then why doesn’t the extraordinary claim that there are no leprechauns require just as much extraordinary evidence as the extraordinary claim that there are leprechauns?
If a policeman discovers evidence of a crime (blood on the sidewalk, a spent bullet nearby, an empty wallet in a trash bin), he might infer that there is a person either dead or in harm’s way.
Correct. Based on all previous experiences with this kind of evidence it could be very likely that a crime has occurred and someone could be in harm’s way.
Another policeman may say, “But there is no body. Show me the body … I need extraordinary evidence that a crime has been committed.”
Extraordinary evidence is for an extraordinary event, of which this isn’t. It doesn’t violate the laws of physics. It’s quite obvious a body would be a piece of evidence, but so would blood, a bullet, and and empty wallet. The 2nd policemen would probably be someone like Charlemagne II.
 
Are you claiming the fact that it is probable a number be drawn makes it probable that the number 5468584 be drawn on March 30 2011?
There is not enough information to make a call. That is what you are missing. That is why the “probable” or “improbable” adjectives cannot be used. Before a probability can be assigned we need the definition of the phase space. It is obvious that you don’t know anything about probabilities, in the strict mathematical sense. You have no idea what does it mean that an outcome is probable or not. That is why your dilemma is meaningless.
 
So this means that if you accept the claim EEREE, then you should disbelieve any news report that reports a lottery number as the winning number. But this is clearly absurd, people believe news reports that report the winning lotto number every day. and rightly so. Why?
Because they lost! They lose every night and it’s not extraordinary. You can’t have it both ways. If they watch and see that their number matches, most have even reportedly said they thought it was a joke or a mistake. In then which case you continue onto my other standards of evidence to be more and more sure. It’s pretty simple. You seemed to conveniently leave out the rest of my standards of proof.
Your very radical determined skepticism would never be accepted by any probability theorist. Every day people believe that a certain number is the winning lotto number (an incredibly improbable event) only on the basis of the media say-so.
:thumbsup:Wow. Every day people believe it because they all lose except one person. It is not an incredible that 99.9% of people believe it because it does fall into a probable event that a random number is called of which doesn’t match theirs. It is not improbable when they lose, only when they win! You keep going back between the winners and losers. It is NOT an incredibly improbable event that a number comes up as a loser; rather, only as a winner.
Your last remark in this post is the closest you have come to accepting my point. A claim may be so extraordinarily improbable, but when you consider also the evidence, and the probability that the evidence should be what it is if the event did not occur, you may rationally accept an improbable claim. So the question will be, how probable is it that we should have things like the empty tomb, the appearances of the risen Christ, and the origin of Christian belief, if the Resurrection did not actually happen?
  1. There is no evidence for the resurrection outside the Bible. Non-Christian historical references to Jesus don’t occur until about six decades after the time when Biblical scholars think he probably died. When these non-Christian sources refer to Jesus’ miracles, there’s no reason to see them as anything more than a report of what Christians of the time believed.
  2. There is little evidence that the Gospels were written by eyewitnesses, or based directly on eyewitness accounts. Most of what the Bible says about Jesus’ life and supposed resurrection is in the first four books of the New Testament: Matthew, Mark, Luke, and John, (a.k.a. the Gospels). But Biblical scholars now agree these books were originally anonymous, their names added later. The traditional Christian claims about who wrote them are now widely doubted by scholars.
  3. This means that the Gospels can’t be trusted as evidence for miracles. Imagine someone trying to convert you to another religion based on the “proof” of the miracles worked by the religion’s founder… in the form of a handful of anonymous tracts recounting his life. Would you accept that “proof”? Of course not. Among other things, the stories could just be legends.
4.One of Paul’s letters provides evidence that a number of people claimed Jesus had appeared to them after his death. But this isn’t proof of a miracle. The passage is 1st Corinthians 15:3-9, and most Biblical scholars agree it was really written by Paul. But again, would you accept similar evidence in favor of another religion’s miracles? The Mormon church has statements signed by several people attesting to miracles that are supposed to confirm the truth of the Book of the Mormon, but you probably won’t convert to Mormonism based on that. Also, Paul doesn’t tell us how he knows about all these appearances, so we can’t be confident his report is accurate.
  1. Reports that Jesus’ disciples were martyred prove nothing. Reports of the martyrdom of Jesus’ disciples do not occur in this historical record until long after their deaths would have occurred, and accounts sometimes conflict with one another. It could be that most, even all, of these stories are legends. In any case, not only do people sometimes give up their lives for delusions, even outright charlatans have been killed for their claims. Joseph Smith was probably a charlatan, but he died at the hands of a lynch mob. So we can’t rule out deception among Jesus’ followers.
  2. Claims that this or that individual couldn’t possibly have hallucinated are nonsense. Even apparently sane people hallucinate for a wide variety of reasons and under a wide variety of circumstances. We can’t rule this out for people who claimed to have seen the risen Jesus.
  3. Even if there were several people in Paul’s day who would have claimed to have all seen the risen Jesus at the same time, their testimony might not have stood up to scrutiny. There have been cases where a group of children have claimed to see the Virgin Mary, and been taken seriously by adults who should have known better. In many of these cases, the children were questioned individually and their descriptions of what they saw didn’t match, suggesting deception or delusion.
 
The specific number being drawn is an extraordinarily improbable event, yes I believe it only on the testimony of the news media, which is not extraordinary evidence.
Well then you’re an idiot if you believe it, because it isn’t extraordinary evidence, and I’ve already shown what evidence is needed to verify this claim. Everyone has seen how I’ve debunked it, you are digging yourself into a deep hole.
 
😉 We have a winner! Bravo on the standards of evidence (though it still seems a little vague). May I ask the same standard of evidence in regards to your God?
Thank you! I’ll try not to spend the reward all in one place 😃

In reply to your question, I have only one “standard of evidence:” whether the the “proof” is relevant. For instance, if the purple alien proponent attempted to prove his point by patiently explaining that twinkies have yellow angel food on the outside but mysterious creme on the inside, I would not accept that evidence as proof of the suggestion, even if I ate the twinkie. But if he said, “listen to the birds closely, and you will hear them singing the alien’s name,” then I would accept that, because it seems logical that a creature would know its creator.

Therefore, potentially any evidence - even the word of a fool- can be considered. At least the standard is fair, as far as it goes.

But one thing alone does not convince. It is the quantum of evidence that ultimately convinces me.

Let’s agree to call this quantum “the burden of proof,” to borrow from the crime dramas.

For me, the burden of proof was high. The Church had to be able to reconcile its claim to supernatural origin and life as against myriad competing explanations and counter arguments.

A most capable administrator once asked “What is truth?” and I duly mimicked the query.

It would be tedious in the extreme for anyone to have to endure the story how my doubts were eventually resolved (very many personal stories tend to be tedious- rather like “let me tell you about my darling little boy and what he did in school today”).

But, in brief (and only because you asked!) I started from the Church more or less today and worked backward in time.

I reasoned, if the Church is wrong, then Maximillian Kolbe was wrong, and Himmler was right. Pope Benedict xV was wrong when he said WWI was the suicide of Europe, but the Kaiser, LLoyd George, Kitchener, the Tsar, Poincare were right; that Pope Paul VI was wrong, and the people who lectured us from Planned Parenthood were right.

This seemed odd, since I felt, based on other evidence (like the number of dead people or the fact that the simplest people were exactly the ones ignoring Planned Parenthood), that the men who opposed the Church were ridiculous non-entities who had somehow interjected themselves into modern life as against the efforts of all humanity to the contrary.

Mind you, I was generally skeptical, and the more I began to question, the more things came apart. You can imagine what happened when I scrutinized my patriotism, my politics, and so forth.

“Things fall apart. The center cannot hold.”

But something caught my attention in a Tom Stoppard play, of all places. It was a chance quotation, to the effect that people will reduce anything you say to the common denominator of what they wish to understand. I perceived an idea I could work with. I was quite surprised when I noticed that long before, a consonant idea had been expressed, that a man who rejects certain laws will not adjust even in the face of a miracle.

With those ideas, plus skepticism, I felt I had discovered a method I could use.

The rest was just a matter of running experiments, which is to say, a mere issue of time.
 
There is not enough information to make a call. That is what you are missing. That is why the “probable” or “improbable” adjectives cannot be used. Before a probability can be assigned we need the definition of the phase space. It is obvious that you don’t know anything about probabilities, in the strict mathematical sense. You have no idea what does it mean that an outcome is probable or not. That is why your dilemma is meaningless.
Keeler, we can put this one to rest. I’ve clearly debunked danserr multiple times and everyone knows it but danserr. We won’t get any further.
 
Keeler, we can put this one to rest. I’ve clearly debunked danserr multiple times and everyone knows it but danserr. We won’t get any further.
Indeed. It is a waste of time to argue with those people who are ignorant and do not wish to listen. The ignorant ones who wish to learn and are willing to listen are a very different category. 🙂
 
Just arrived to the thread. Some folks might be interested in a popular evolutionary psychologist’s recent take on this very question, considering he’s coming from a scientific field harboring a majority of proponents who are often dogmatically hostile to Christianity.

And my own view: I’ve always been wary of this initially common sense-sounding canard; however, I wonder whether most of us tacitly assume it anyway throughout the course of our everyday lives. Kinda seems like it (though perhaps that’s largely due to a particularly popular sort of schooling).
 
The hint I am getting is that you really, really, really, really want to talk about anything other than
1. Empiricism - A logical contradiction and therefore impossible.
2. Verification/Falsification - A logical contradiction and therefore impossible.
3. ECREE - Relies on the validity of #1 and #2, and its Equivocally fallacious.
Without these on what other basis can you be an atheist? Faith? Then you are not truly a rational atheist anymore. It is clear to me that you are desperate to protect your cherished beliefs. The stake I just drove through the vampiric heart of atheism kills it dead. Unless you have another basis for your atheism? No? I didn’t think so. No atheist I have known ever has. 🤷 **You are in a trap you can’t escape because you either…
  1. Admit that the basis of atheism are logical contradictions and therefore invalid. Welcome to Theism!
  2. Admit that you accept logical contradictions as valid. Welcome to the insane asylum!**
    Either way atheism as a logically consistent concept is an epic fail. So what are you going to do? Can you change your position when confronted with the logical contradictions at the heart of atheism(as I have seen you claim that evidence can change your mind)? Are you going to cut and run? Ignore me know that you know the score? Or are you going to keep trying to change the subject hoping that we I will let you off the hook? Trust me, I won’t.
Hi “honestquestions”, I wonder if your ready to admit to accepting logical contradictions as valid, or if your ready to throw off your atheism and start looking for G-d? I mean, you did claim that evidence can change your mind, and from the screen name you chose I can only assume that intellectual honesty is of the highest importance to you, right? So by your own words,it seems that you are being hoist by your own petard.
 
honestquestions
*
The 2nd policemen would probably be someone like Charlemagne II. *

I don’t debate with arrogant and snarling atheists. Are you one? 😃

*Keeler, we can put this one to rest. I’ve clearly debunked danserr multiple times and everyone knows it but danserr. We won’t get any further. *

More proof of childish arrogance. Exactly how old are you? You have to be of a certain age to play in this forum.
 
Indeed. It is a waste of time to argue with those people who are ignorant and do not wish to listen. The ignorant ones who wish to learn and are willing to listen are a very different category. 🙂
What can you teach us? It seems obvious to me that you don’t have a great grasp on the subject matter. It seems obvious to me that you are ignoring the logical contradictions you have stated as your beliefs. So do you think you are so much smarter than us that you can teach us something by the sheer power of your towering intellect?:rotfl:
http://www.mathewingram.com/work/wp-content/uploads/morans.jpg
 
Hi “honestquestions”, I wonder if your ready to admit to accepting logical contradictions as valid,
I did not contradict.
or if your ready to throw off your atheism and start looking for G-d?
You mean believe before I start looking for evidence? Atheism is lack of belief in God. Why would I believe before any evidence? Where else in life do we believe claims before we receive the evidence?
I mean, you did claim that evidence can change your mind, and from the screen name you chose I can only assume that intellectual honesty is of the highest importance to you, right?
Yes, it can change my mind. So far none has. But I had a recent idea - prayers can be scientifically tested, and then I found that there were tests already, and none came up that conclusively showed intervention.
 
*Keeler, we can put this one to rest. I’ve clearly debunked danserr multiple times and everyone knows it but danserr. We won’t get any further. *
Feel free to show me how I was wrong regarding the debunking of danserr’s claims.
 
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warpspeedpetey:
It seems obvious to me that you are ignoring the logical contradictions you have stated as your beliefs.
What logical contradictions? Surely you are not still referring to the incredulous one as I have have already shown that I do not deny your claim because it sounds too incredible.
 
honestquestions
*
The 2nd policemen would probably be someone like Charlemagne II. *
Sorry, I would like to retract that so the attention is not focused there but rather on the argument. So feel free to respond to everything I said that was above that…
 
What logical contradictions? Surely you are not still referring to the incredulous one as I have have already shown that I do not deny your claim because it sounds too incredible.
Don’t expect an answer. Wsp has this delusion that “empiricism” equals “logical positivism” and no matter how many times we explain him the difference, he does not understand it. A waste of time to read his blabberings.
 
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