Do Lockdowns Even Work?

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It depends on what your metric is for determining if it worked.

To have absolutely no new cases after a certain date? No, the lock down did not work.

Would we have had more cases if we kept everything open?
I’m “inclined to think” the answer is Yes, but that’s not a precise measure.

And we aren’t totally locked down.
First responders and health care workers and grocery store/drive through workers are still out and about.
People still leave their homes to go food shopping and gas in the car.
 
Lock downs can be very effective and provide time to increase the stock of medical equipment, beds and staff. To be effective the lock down has to occur very early and the borders of the region have to be secure.
 
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Tis_Bearself said:
Sweden will catch up and get their share over time
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From IMHE, it appears that the disease came later to Sweden. The peak is projected to occur in May.
And the deaths per millions, even with the mitigation efforts just enacted, is projected to by 576 - substantially exceeding Italy and Spain. Scaling that the the US would give a total of ~ 200,000 dead.
 
Still not convinced that lockdowns work.

In states that did nothing they have less deaths per person than states that only let essential workers leave there homes.

There might not be a vaccine for years that works.

At first, it was stay home so we can get prepared with testing, ventilators, etc, to stay home so we have little to zero cases.

Which then it will just come back stronger in the fall and we have to do this exercise all over again?

If we continue on this route, the poverty could cost more lives than we are saving.

A better plan would have been to have the less vulnerable obtain herd immunity. That would have protected the vulnerable and maybe caused less overall deaths.
 
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I think you may be right. Also,”never let a good crisis go to waste,you can accomplish things that you othwise would be unable to do” Rham Emmanuel
A lot of this going on right now🤨
 
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0Scarlett_nidiyilii said:
Would we have had more cases if we kept everything open?
I’m “inclined to think” the answer is Yes, but that’s not a precise measure.
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I don’t know how the answer could be No…unless you subscribe to one of the conspiracy theories that says the virus can’t be transmitted from person to person/it’s all in the mind etc.

The reason I say that is by having less people interacting with other people, the infection rates almost certainly have to drop. I know people who have literally not left their home for over a month now.
 
They worked during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. There were negative consequences when certain cities ended their lockdowns too early. We could learn from them.
 
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There are many that did not have a shelter in place order.

Arkansas for instance did not.

They had only 44 deaths so far from Covid 19 in a state of 3 million.
 
It depends greatly on the amount of carriers walking around. How could anyone predict that? Even Wyoming is staring to have more cases and a few deaths. This is the least populated state in the US.

It appears in clusters and the location of where those clusters will appear is beyond our ability to predict. We just know that where there’s one, there’ll be more and isolation is the quickest way to prevent the cluster from growing.
 
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