**It’s not forgoing kids so much as it is thinking they need all of this stuff. **
[snip]
People who send their kids to private school (although some of those are questions I have to say) are going to get dinged twice. I am staunchly against such policies as they are in effect paying for a service (public education) they aren’t even using. Of course, a lot of them still VOTE to do this, so it’s hard to feel sorry for them…
**As far as college goes, pretty soon that’s going to be too expensive for anyone to go to. **A lot of teenagers today are listening to the tales of woe of Millennials and are being more cautious. And the universities still want programs where the scholarship, management, and leadership are rancid and to send their football folks to bowl games at a loss.
Your post does a really nice job of breaking down costs and mentions the big one which is daycare, but we need to get to the bottom of the increased costs which in many cases is an expensive local government that people keep voting for over and over and over and they keep volunteering to give money to school and unis that in many cases de-catechize their kids and laugh in their sleeves while doing it.
But again, what “stuff” are we talking about that people are choosing over having children? Truth be told, I bet the “childfree” have way less stuff than a typical family. In fact, having a family means not being able to embrace fashionable minimalism (which is, in a way, yet another luxury).
Bear in mind that I’m a private school parent. A lot of people (including on CAF) think that sending children to private school is a luxury. But then you read Dreher’s post, and it doesn’t sound like such a wicked indulgence anymore. (My kids’ school doesn’t allow use of phones or electronic devices during the school day). But if you are paying for private school, that tends to put a cap on family size…

It’s a puzzlement.
Somebody is going to say, “You can always homeschool!” But here are some issues with that:
–It depresses mom’s (or dad’s) earning ability for many more years than would be true if the kids were in school.
–Children may have special needs that are better met outside the home or may interfere with siblings getting an education
–It may be bad for mom’s mental and physical health to be continually with children
–It’s actually common for families to try homeschooling for a year or two or a few years and then send kids to school (I meet a lot of former homeschoolers), so one really cannot guarantee that one will be able to do K-12 at home from beginning to end.
–A lone mother educating a large family by herself isn’t actually how effective home education was done historically. For one thing, if she was prosperous, she wasn’t doing it alone and had help either with instruction and/or household work. For another, lone pioneer mothers were not teaching their children calculus, AP physics, and advanced French in their sod houses–the academic expectations were a lot more modest.
With regard to people not going to college, there’s a saying that goes, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” What I mean is, the odds are that college will continue to be a good bet for people who are strong enough students that they can finish. Plus, 30% of college graduates finish with no debt. (The other 70% average about $37k.)
I have to note that private K-12 school costs are often more or less in step with public school costs–which suggests that the public school costs are not completely out of line. It may just reflect local labor costs.
There are a lot of reasons for college, K-12 and health care to be expensive. The labor-intensiveness is probably the biggest ingredient.