L
LittleSoldier
Guest
Does the death penalty deter crime? I honestly don’t think anyone really knows (although they might think they do 
):
Robert Weisberg, JD, PhD, Edwin E. Huddleson, Jr. Professor of Law at Stanford University Law School, in his Dec. 2005 Annual Review of Law and Social Science article titled “The Death Penalty Meets Social Science: Deterrence and Jury Behavior Under New Scrutiny,” wrote:
"Social science has long played a role in examining the efficacy and fairness of the death penalty. Empirical studies of the deterrent effect of capital punishment were cited by the Supreme Court in its landmark cases in the 1970s; most notable was the 1975 Isaac Ehrlich study*… which used multivariate regression analysis and purported to show a significant marginal deterrent effect over life imprisonment, but which was soon roundly criticized for methodological flaws.
Decades later, new econometric studies have emerged, using panel data techniques, that report striking findings of marginal deterrence, even up to 18 lives saved per execution. Yet the cycle of debate continues, as these new studies face criticism for omitting key potential variables and for the potential distorting effect of one anomalously high-executing state (Texas). Meanwhile, other empiricists, relying mainly on survey questionnaires, have taken a fresh look at the human dynamics of death penalty trials, especially the attitudes and personal background factors that influence capital jurors."
Dec. 2005 - Robert Weisberg, JD, PhD
Donald L. Beschle, LLM, Professor of Law at the John Marshall Law School in Chicago, in a Jan. 1997 William and Mary Law Review essay titled “What’s Guilt (or Deterrence) Got to Do With It? The Death Penalty, Ritual, and Mimetic Violence,” wrote:
“…deterrence theory seems less and less central to the debate, even as it is understood currently. Most abolitionists and retentionists seem committed to their positions regardless of the evidence on deterrence. Deterrence seems to be an argument added to bolster a position already taken.”
deathpenalty.procon.org/view.answers.php?questionID=983
(all bolding added by this poster for emphasis)
My background (at least partially) is in psychology research methodology, including advanced statistics. One of the few bits of information I learned is that research conclusions taken at face value without an examination of methodology, including confounding variables, is dangerous and misleading. I’ve never read a piece of slam-dunk research and of course there is ALWAYS the possibility that findings are due simply to chance.
Reporting findings as fact, without a clear understanding of all the factors involved in all research projects, either represents a lack of knowledge regarding scientific method or actual dis-ingenuity. As the old saying goes: “You can prove anything with statistics.”
The truth is that nothing can be proven using scientific method. We can make educated guesses, we can correlate, we can provide evidence which may lend strength to a hypothesis. But we cannot prove. Never.
*The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: A Question of Life and Death, Isaac Ehrlich
The American Economic Review, Vol. 65, No. 3. (Jun., 1975), pp. 397-417.
):Robert Weisberg, JD, PhD, Edwin E. Huddleson, Jr. Professor of Law at Stanford University Law School, in his Dec. 2005 Annual Review of Law and Social Science article titled “The Death Penalty Meets Social Science: Deterrence and Jury Behavior Under New Scrutiny,” wrote:
"Social science has long played a role in examining the efficacy and fairness of the death penalty. Empirical studies of the deterrent effect of capital punishment were cited by the Supreme Court in its landmark cases in the 1970s; most notable was the 1975 Isaac Ehrlich study*… which used multivariate regression analysis and purported to show a significant marginal deterrent effect over life imprisonment, but which was soon roundly criticized for methodological flaws.
Decades later, new econometric studies have emerged, using panel data techniques, that report striking findings of marginal deterrence, even up to 18 lives saved per execution. Yet the cycle of debate continues, as these new studies face criticism for omitting key potential variables and for the potential distorting effect of one anomalously high-executing state (Texas). Meanwhile, other empiricists, relying mainly on survey questionnaires, have taken a fresh look at the human dynamics of death penalty trials, especially the attitudes and personal background factors that influence capital jurors."
Dec. 2005 - Robert Weisberg, JD, PhD
Donald L. Beschle, LLM, Professor of Law at the John Marshall Law School in Chicago, in a Jan. 1997 William and Mary Law Review essay titled “What’s Guilt (or Deterrence) Got to Do With It? The Death Penalty, Ritual, and Mimetic Violence,” wrote:
“…deterrence theory seems less and less central to the debate, even as it is understood currently. Most abolitionists and retentionists seem committed to their positions regardless of the evidence on deterrence. Deterrence seems to be an argument added to bolster a position already taken.”
deathpenalty.procon.org/view.answers.php?questionID=983
(all bolding added by this poster for emphasis)
My background (at least partially) is in psychology research methodology, including advanced statistics. One of the few bits of information I learned is that research conclusions taken at face value without an examination of methodology, including confounding variables, is dangerous and misleading. I’ve never read a piece of slam-dunk research and of course there is ALWAYS the possibility that findings are due simply to chance.
Reporting findings as fact, without a clear understanding of all the factors involved in all research projects, either represents a lack of knowledge regarding scientific method or actual dis-ingenuity. As the old saying goes: “You can prove anything with statistics.”
The truth is that nothing can be proven using scientific method. We can make educated guesses, we can correlate, we can provide evidence which may lend strength to a hypothesis. But we cannot prove. Never.
*The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: A Question of Life and Death, Isaac Ehrlich
The American Economic Review, Vol. 65, No. 3. (Jun., 1975), pp. 397-417.
