I think your actual question is more like “Does God control every event?”
Let me digress a second …
“Chance” is a human concept, a way we have of framing an understanding around things we can’t explain but that nevertheless have an explanation. I work as a statistician - I model things as random because I don’t have the information to precisely predict them, but I recognize that with enough information, everything can be predicted.
For example, we say a car accident is a chance occurrence, but we know that a driver was texting and didn’t look up in time to avoid colliding with the car in front of her. Or we say that it was a random tragedy that a young man died in his sleep, but an autopsy will show a previously-unknown heart defect, and if this happens often enough we put together medical testing guidelines and treatments, and the proportion of cases like this decrease over time. That’s not truly “chance”, that’s just unknown.
Back to your question. Does God let us change things? Yes, but only so much. I can’t change that Deji was born to a pastoral tribe in Nigeria during a period in which developers were stealing his tribe’s land, shooting their herds and burning their homes. But his uncle in Chicago brought him to the U.S., and I was Deji’s day camp counselor for a summer. Neither the uncle nor I could stop the illegal development, but at least we introduced Deji to the United States and a better life.
But we shouldn’t let that limit us. With God, all things are possible. When Jamie Herrera-Buetler’s unborn daughter was diagnosed in utero with Potter’s Syndrome, which is always fatal, she asked for prayers. I prayed hard - so hard that I followed some links about Potter’s Syndrome, including one to a foundation (NILMDTS - Now I Lay Me Down To Sleep) which takes family photos as rememberances for parents of stillborn or terminally-ill infants. Through a supernatural gift of the Spirit, I mourned and I wept, and I - the father of healthy, living, beautiful children - offered a deep sorrow that God has twice spared me from suffering, for the unborn baby of a woman I’ve never met. I offered a heart-rending pain for this baby, and I prayed a long time for God’s blessing.
Today, Abigail Buetler is the only known case of a baby with Potter’s Syndrome to have survived birth. With God’s abundant blessing, I pray she will be able to celebrate her one-year-birthday next month.
So does God leave anything to chance? No. But don’t think for a second He doesn’t leave it up to prayer. God listens, God loves, God weeps, and God laughs. But God never shuns us, nor denies us the good that He, as a loving Father, would give to us.