Does Pascal's Wager Apply to Environmental Concerns

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Pascal’s Wager has exhaustively been deconstructed and popularly labeled as a poor argument for a number of reasons. But when it comes to environmental concerns would Pascal’s wager be applicable? I’ll take one concern as an example.

CO2 emissions either contributes to global climate change or does not contribute to global climate change. If we assume that it does and make changes accordingly we have contributed to the world being a better place for future generations. But if we are wrong then we have more efficient vehicles for nothing…

I think you know how the entire thing goes. Thoughts? Does this work?
 
Well, Pascal’s wager bears some similarities to what scientists call the ‘precautionary principle’ - the idea that if there is no scientific consensus on whether an action is harmful or not, the onus is on those advocating the action to prove that it is not harmful. It fits in quid nicely with Pascal’s idea of weighing up the consequences of action and inaction and taking the safer route - which in regards climate change is certainly acting as if manmade climate change is a reality.
 
Pascal’s Wager has exhaustively been deconstructed and popularly labeled as a poor argument for a number of reasons. But when it comes to environmental concerns would Pascal’s wager be applicable? I’ll take one concern as an example.

CO2 emissions either contributes to global climate change or does not contribute to global climate change. If we assume that it does and make changes accordingly we have contributed to the world being a better place for future generations. But if we are wrong then we have more efficient vehicles for nothing…

I think you know how the entire thing goes. Thoughts? Does this work?
I am one of those people that think that Pascal’s Wager is a good argument that has a bad conclusion (faking belief just to get into heaven), so I believe the above argument works.
 
I am one of those people that think that Pascal’s Wager is a good argument that has a bad conclusion (faking belief just to get into heaven), so I believe the above argument works.
Umm… have you read the text itself? And yet you still think it’s about ‘faking’ belief?
And so our proposition is of infinite force, when there is the finite to stake in a game where there are equal risks of gain and of loss, and the infinite to gain. This is demonstrable; and if men are capable of any truths, this is one.
“I confess it, I admit it. But, still, is there no means of seeing the faces of the cards?” Yes, Scripture and the rest, etc. “Yes, but I have my hands tied and my mouth closed; I am forced to wager, and am not free. I am not released, and am so made that I cannot believe. What, then, would you have me do?”
True. But at least learn your inability to believe, since reason brings you to this, and yet you cannot believe. Endeavour, then, to convince yourself, not by increase of proofs of God, but by the abatement of your passions. You would like to attain faith and do not know the way; you would like to cure yourself of unbelief and ask the remedy for it. Learn of those who have been bound like you, and who now stake all their possessions. These are people who know the way which you would follow, and who are cured of an ill of which you would be cured. Follow the way by which they began; by acting as if they believed, taking the holy water, having masses said, etc. Even this will naturally make you believe, and deaden your acuteness. “But this is what I am afraid of.” And why? What have you to lose?
(Emphasis mine.)

Seems pretty clear he’s saying that if you have decided upon this course of action, and want to believe (but cannot), then just begin the practice of the faith and emulation of the saints. By doing so, then, “this will naturally make you believe”. Sure doesn’t sound like he’s saying, “meh… just fake it.” 😉
 
Umm… have you read the text itself? And yet you still think it’s about ‘faking’ belief?

(Emphasis mine.)

Seems pretty clear he’s saying that if you have decided upon this course of action, and want to believe (but cannot), then just begin the practice of the faith and emulation of the saints. By doing so, then, “this will naturally make you believe”. Sure doesn’t sound like he’s saying, “meh… just fake it.” 😉
I don’t disagree with any of this. Just one question. Is “meh” a word? Never heard it before.
 
I am one of those people that think that Pascal’s Wager is a good argument that has a bad conclusion (faking belief just to get into heaven), so I believe the above argument works.
You have obviously not read pascals wager. Do you really think that he was not smart enough to forsee this criticism and address it himself? Actually, do you really think pascal would have been dumb enough to put forward an argument with such an obvious flaw?

To the OP question: no, not even close. Read the complete argument and try to map all the details onto the GW problem. It doesn’t work.
 
To the OP question: no, not even close. Read the complete argument and try to map all the details onto the GW problem. It doesn’t work.
Well, I think this is exactly what ThinkingSapien was asking. 😉

ThinkingSapien,

I agree with tafan: it doesn’t seem like it would work, on a number of counts. First, Pascal’s premise proceeds from the assertion that there is no possible rational argument for the existence of God – that is, God’s existence transcends rationality. In the case of environmental issues, there are certainly a number of rational arguments that can be made for the various issues. So, on this count alone, the use of Pascal’s wager, per se, is a non-starter.

However, if we were to continue to consider whether there are any ways that the two might be made to correspond, we would find that there are additional problems, as well. Much of the force of his argument comes from the notion of infinite gain: given the choice between infinite gain and finite loss, the only rational choice is to attempt for infinite gain. Moreover, even if there were an infinite number of possibilities, the expected value of infinite gain – over the breadth of these infinite possibilities – leads the observer to reason that attempting for infinite gain still wins out. In the context of environmental issues, there is neither infinite gain nor an infinite number of possibilities.

One could certainly utilize Pascal’s method (that is, the calculation of expected value) and apply it to environmental concerns; but the notion of Pascal’s wager, per se, doesn’t fit well.

Blessings,

G.
 
Pascal’s Wager has exhaustively been deconstructed and popularly labeled as a poor argument for a number of reasons. But when it comes to environmental concerns would Pascal’s wager be applicable? I’ll take one concern as an example.

CO2 emissions either contributes to global climate change or does not contribute to global climate change. If we assume that it does and make changes accordingly we have contributed to the world being a better place for future generations. But if we are wrong then we have more efficient vehicles for nothing…

I think you know how the entire thing goes. Thoughts? Does this work?
Personal opinion about the value of Pascal’s Wager. Naturally, those who don’t want to " face the music " would argue that it is meaningless. The arguments I’ve seen against it are just too fantastic and esoteric to even bother with.

However, we may have to give up our cars sooner or later if we don’t find a cheep, clean replacement for gasoline. So attempting to errect a dilemma is unnecessary. 👍
 
But if we are wrong then we have more efficient vehicles for nothing…
For NOTHING? Are you joking? You’re talking about diverting trillions of dollars in the economy according to diktat. Money spent inefficiently results in other things, including necessities, costing more, and/or becoming more scarce. For example, food prices rise when government forces corn production to ethanol. Spending money on fixing something we cannot fix (if indeed global warming is in that category - I believe it is) harms everyone, but first and foremost it harms the poor.

Pascal’s Wager refers to ALL or NOTHING. No earthly choice is equivalent.
 
I think there is one critical difference. In Pascal’s Wager we find that even if Heaven did not exist and there is not God, there is not a downside to Christianity, as the Christian life is fulfilling on its own. If money spent on the environment reduced the quality of life, or even life itself, unnecessarily, then the downside would be greater than in Pascal’s Wager. Still, I think it is a very worthy argument and works well where environmental measures:
  1. Result in an improved quality of life now (as in less smog), or
  2. Have little economic downside (as in food shortages, good shortages).
Excellent thread and a good point of discussion.
 
Umm… have you read the text itself? And yet you still think it’s about ‘faking’ belief?

(Emphasis mine.)

Seems pretty clear he’s saying that if you have decided upon this course of action, and want to believe (but cannot), then just begin the practice of the faith and emulation of the saints. By doing so, then, “this will naturally make you believe”. Sure doesn’t sound like he’s saying, “meh… just fake it.” 😉
The wager itself is not about faking belief, but my statement is the end result of the wager when applied to a non-believer: if you do not believe, fake it until you do believe.
 
You have obviously not read pascals wager. Do you really think that he was not smart enough to forsee this criticism and address it himself? Actually, do you really think pascal would have been dumb enough to put forward an argument with such an obvious flaw?
Intelligence has nothing to do with being able to create flawed arguments and not see the flaws. Perhaps you have heard of Stephen Hawking’s latest book, The Grand Design?
 
Intelligence has nothing to do with being able to create flawed arguments and not see the flaws. Perhaps you have heard of Stephen Hawking’s latest book, The Grand Design?
So explain to me how pascals wager leads to faking faith. Please explain the arguments flaws.
 
I take kind of the reverse approach… whether or not global warming, etc is real, I personally can’t do a darn thing about it, so I just kinda hope it’s not real.
 
my statement is the end result of the wager when applied to a non-believer: if you do not believe, fake it until you do believe.
That’s just it – Pascal isn’t talking to the intransigent non-believer: he’s talking to the person who says that they just can’t reason their way to belief, but his argument is one that leads one to the reasonableness of being open to belief. His response is, “that’s ok… none of us can reason our way to God. As long as you can see that it’s reasonable to believe – and I say it is – just reason your way to want to believe.”

… At that point, you’re no longer “faking it” – you’ve convinced yourself that faith is reasonable, and you’re taking those first, faltering steps on your journey of faith. Is that the definition of ‘faking it’? Not by a long shot… 😉
 
I take kind of the reverse approach… whether or not global warming, etc is real, I personally can’t do a darn thing about it, so I just kinda hope it’s not real.
Not as an individual. But then a single individual couldn’t have driven the Brits out of America either. Or established the United States. Or defeated Germany in WWI or Japan in WWII. Or defeated Hussein, Bin Laden and Gaddafi.

But you as an individual can, together with others working towards the same goals, change the world and achieve most anything.
 
Pascal’s Wager has exhaustively been deconstructed and popularly labeled as a poor argument for a number of reasons. But when it comes to environmental concerns would Pascal’s wager be applicable? I’ll take one concern as an example.

CO2 emissions either contributes to global climate change or does not contribute to global climate change. If we assume that it does and make changes accordingly we have contributed to the world being a better place for future generations. But if we are wrong then we have more efficient vehicles for nothing…

I think you know how the entire thing goes. Thoughts? Does this work?
I like Pascal’s Wager, since I teach statistics and hypothesis testing…with the alpha error or FALSE POSITIVE (making a false claim, which scientists avoid like the plague) and the beta error or FALSE NEGATIVE (which if about a serious problem we say does not exist & we fail to address it could be our doom – so laypersons, policy-makers, and doctors would be striving to avoid this).

However, this really doesn’t apply as well to global warming I have found, in the Pascal said that if we believe in God when there is no God, then no harm done, but it is more like tremendous good done.

Here are the 4 scenarios for global warming:
  1. FALSE POSITIVE: global warming is not happening, but we mitigate it anyway, thereby reducing other environmental and other problems, saving lives and health, saving money and the economy without reducing living standards and productivity. This is the very best of all scenarios. (And I’m already laughing all the way to the bank having mitigated GW for over 20 years – feeling a bit sorry for the poor denialist suckers choking on debt.)
  2. TRUE POSITIVE: global warming is happening and we mitigate it. We’re a bit late, so there will still be tremendous harms for perhaps 100s of years, but we have staved off annihilation of life on earth avoiding tipping points and runaway warming. And all our mitigation strategies have mitigated many other problems, including local and regional pollution, the ozone hole, resource depletion, military actions and conflicts over resources, etc. Even crime-safer streets. Yes, walking and cycling (instead of driving cars) reduces crime, not to mention wear and tear on roads.
  3. TRUE NEGATIVE: global warming is not happening and we do not mitigate it. We send our economic and environmental systems into really bad tail spins by failing to capitalize on the savings from energy/resource efficiency/conservation and alt energy, and by failing to adequately address other environmental issues (which are also solved thru GW mitigation measures). That includes many lives lost due to the pollution and in conflicts over resources.
  4. FALSE NEGATIVE: global warming is happening and we do not mitigate it. We send our system into runaway warming and end all life on earth. See esp. pg. 24 of columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/AGUBjerknes_20081217.pdf
So actually our choice is a win-win-win-win-win situation if we mitigate GW v. a lose-lose-lose-lose-lose-BIG LOSE situation if we fail to mitigate GW.

It’s a no-brainer.
 
Have you not noticed how universal the application of “evolution” has become whether applicable or not? “Evolution” is evoked but does not apply but it gives one a kind of status in their arguments.

Respectfully, Al Gore is an oil baron via Occidental Petroleum, and he and the Koch Brothers with their natural gas interests are eager to promote “global warming as excess CO2” and not as solar flares, for example (causing warming on Mars). This is to create another phony trading market to replace the rip-off of mortgage-backed derivatives-- still undead as a zombie.

And trading carbon credits makes economy-crashing Fannie Mae rich from cash made on the trade itself; and rich on the carbon credits they suck up from federal mortgage holders. And your energy costs rise to pay for those carbon credit swaps. This is a mega-scam and no semantics can put enough lipstick on this swine to make it attractive. We won’t be fooled again, please God.
 
…And trading carbon credits makes economy-crashing Fannie Mae rich from cash made on the trade itself; and rich on the carbon credits they suck up from federal mortgage holders. And your energy costs rise to pay for those carbon credit swaps. This is a mega-scam and no semantics can put enough lipstick on this swine to make it attractive. We won’t be fooled again, please God.
I think the idea that carbon taxes are the only way to mitigate climate change is bogus – esp when all they are expected do is make people’s energy expenditures go up bec no one is actually willing to drive less or more efficiently, and no one is further insulating their homes or doing other wise and prudent things to reduce their energy consumption.

That would do NOTHING to reduce GW and would only make profligate, gluttonous people very angry – and you don’t want to anger those types.

OTOH, the huge bulk of actions have to be voluntary actions on the parts of families, churches, businesses, and the government to reduce their GHG emissions in whatever ways they can – first by plucking the low hanging fruit of cost-effective measures that save money without lowering productivity or living standards. That would get us down by 60 to 75% below our 1990 emissions in the U.S.

The government can help by (1) reducing its own emissions, and (2) encouraging and helping people reduce, by providing information, appropriate carrots (subsidies), sticks (feeds), and low interest loans for becoming efficient…like their Green Lights Program some 15 years ago, which gave low interest loans to businesses to install more efficient lighting, which would be paid back out of their monthly energy savings from that.

For instance, the Jewel Supermarket chain in the Chicagoland area got onto it and replaced all their regular 2-tube light fixtures with a one-light fixture with electronic ballasts and a reflective casing – cutting their lighting energy use by more than half without reducing the lighting, and letting them pay the $1 million loan in about a year, thereafter going on to save them about $1 million per year.

Then there is the issue of indirect GHG emissions we can reduce. There are GHG emissions involved in resource extraction, shipping, processing, manufacturing, product usage and disposal. Reducing, reusing, recycling and buying recycled can go a long way in reducing GHGs.

Finally with all that money households save over a couple of decades they may then be able to afford a Chevy Volt, run it on 100% wind energy, and save even more money (we figure the savings from our Volt will pay for the difference between it and the Ford Taurus my husband wanted in about 6.5 years and go on to save us more over the succeeding years).

So GW mitigation does not COST us money, it SAVES us a bundle, while mitigating other problems to boot. Or as Confucius say, “Turning off lights not in use save money, not cost money.”
 
Not as an individual. But then a single individual couldn’t have driven the Brits out of America either. Or established the United States. Or defeated Germany in WWI or Japan in WWII. Or defeated Hussein, Bin Laden and Gaddafi.

But you as an individual can, together with others working towards the same goals, change the world and achieve most anything.
Yeah but in the case of global warming it doesn’t matter a hill of beans whether I drive an Expedition or bike to work. It doesn’t matter who I vote for. It doesn’t matter what products I buy or don’t buy. There are much larger forces at work, that care not one bit for what I think or what I do.

I try to not be wasteful, but I am under no illusion that I am in any way helping the planet, or that the example I set to other people, or the companies I support or don’t support, amounts to anything other than a speck of dust in the Sahara desert.

Hence I hope it’s an overblown concern.
 
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