Doomsday Scenario for U.S. Economy?

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“The current budget deficit is devastating the dollar…”

And yet we’ve had deflation for the past three months. Yes, the purchasing power of the dollar has been increasing.

(Not counting July, the data on that isn’t out yet)
 
Rule one of economics- ** NOTHING** has intrinsic value. Everything is worth what its purchaser will pay for it. Gold is not stable- the price has been increasing far beyond the rate of inflation of all currencies because people are buying it en masse, because pseudo economists are telling people they should. Gold is valuable because it is A. Pretty B. Malleable. People liked the way it looked, it was easy to use, scarce enough to not be everywhere but not so scarce as to be nearly unobtainable.

That disparity a policy decision, not an intrinsic property of gold- world governments could just print money at the rate of replacement if they so chose.

Evidence? Who’s to say a gold-rich area wouldn’t have assigned a lower value to gold than a gold-poor area.

That’s the secret- money is whatever people agree it is- in effect, nothing is ‘real’ money.
What will happen when people no longer accept your American money? That has already happened with some businesses in the world. Surprise! Surprise!

People will only accept your fiat money if they think that someone else will accept your government monopoly money. The fiction that the dollar is real can evaporate very quickly.
 
What will happen when people no longer accept your American money? That has already happened in some businesses of the world.

People will only accept your fiat money if they think that someone else will accept your government monopoly money. The fiction that the dollar is real can evaporate very quickly.
Listen carefully- All value is relative, all prices are the product of market forces, all money is fiat money

The dollar is no more or less intrinsically valuable or stable than gold, than silver, than diamonds, than mercury, when used as currency.

Your gold is only worth what people say it is- if they zero, then it’s worth zero.
 
Debt is too high for us, and the world, to have an orderly transition back to the gold standard. However, I can see a new international currency partially backed by gold to help win back the confidence of the masses.
If you knew a heroin addict who claimed he would suffer too much if he stopped taking heroin from withdrawals, would you agree and recommend the use of more heroin or refute him by saying it is the only way to become clean and stable?

Secondly, an international currency is the absolute scariest thing I can imagine (not joking).

Lastly, picture a situation where competing currencies are simply legalized. Slowly, but surely, a gold/silver backed currency would form and flourish. Thus easing away our addiction humanely.
 
Listen carefully- All value is relative, all prices are the product of market forces, all money is fiat money

The dollar is no more or less intrinsically valuable or stable than gold, than silver, than diamonds, than mercury, when used as currency.

Your gold is only worth what people say it is- if they zero, then it’s worth zero.
People say it is the most valuable because it is the most valuable. It’s the best currency because it is easily divisible, durable, and not easily produced or mined.

People do not like fiat money because it is easily “produced”.

Diamonds are not easily divisible therefore people do not value diamonds as currency.

This may help you understand my side of the argument. mises.org/media/5212
Please give your time to understand this side of the argument if not to only strengthen your argument.
 
The G-20 nations may propose devaluing all currencies, including the dollar and the euro. This government move is theft! What is the difference between a thief stealing 50% of our money or the government devaluing your money by 50%?

Franklin Roosevelt devalued the dollar by Executive Order #6102 by confiscating gold and raising its price 69.3%. FDR stole from my grandfather! His action was also unconstitutional. Expect more of the same in our time. Led by higher gold prices, debts become a fraction of re-inflated asset prices. On that basis alone, I would never buy bonds, especially government bonds!

If people do not buy bonds, there will be no economic recovery, ever.
 
A lot of glass is half empty. Why? If the US Economy tanks, Wall Street packs up and moves away. We all stand in line somewhere for a bowl of soup. The United States turns into Tentville.

"September 27, 2000
Web posted at: 4:51 p.m. EDT (2051 GMT)

"WASHINGTON (CNN) – President Clinton announced Wednesday that the federal budget surplus for fiscal year 2000 amounted to at least $230 billion, making it the largest in U.S. history and topping last year’s record surplus of $122.7 billion.

“Eight years ago, our future was at risk,” Clinton said Wednesday morning. “Economic growth was low, unemployment was high, interest rates were high, the federal debt had quadrupled in the previous 12 years. When Vice President Gore and I took office, the budget deficit was $290 billion, and it was projected this year the budget deficit would be $455 billion.”

God bless,
Ed
 
Gold is the ultimate asset. It is the purest form of money, and the oldest, most durable wealth-preserving asset on the planet. Governments can’t debase it. It has no debts … no board of directors … no politicians or central bankers that can mess with its value. That’s why gold has survived every economy history has ever witnessed, and preserved investors’ purchasing power over a span of some 5,000 years.

The Price of a Dollar

It sounds strange to say that a dollar has a price. However, it is true. Supply and demand determine the dollar’s price. “…The value of currencies in the foreign exchange market is determined by market forces. Just as the forces of supply and demand determine other prices, so do they determine the exchange-rate value of currencies in the absence of government intervention (Gwartney, Stroup, Sobel).”

When looking at the foreign exchange rates, we can say that the dollar price of the pound is $1.50. The inverse is also true, the pound price of the dollar is 0.67 pounds.

The American dollar is the reserve currency of the world; therefore, the price of gold is in terms of American dollars. If gold was the reserve currency of the world, a financial commentator might say, “Today the price of the dollar dropped by 1/10 of a dwt.” It all depends on what you are use to hearing.

“Why gold has been accepted as money for several thousand years cannot be appreciated without looking at the unique role performed by gold as money and the alternatives to gold….Ancient gold coins were widely accepted in primitive times because of the weight of gold they were known to contain. It was the physical qualities of gold, the known content of gold of a particular fineness, the fact the coinage could not easily be expanded in supply or debased and counterfeited, the durability of gold, that made gold universally accepted (Sutton).”

Milton Friedman, Nobel Prize-winning economist, had this to say about the American dollar: “…each accepts them because he is confident others will. The pieces of green paper have value because everybody thinks they have value, and everybody thinks they have value because in his experience they have had value. Paper money “is a social convention which owes it very existence to the mutual acceptance of what from one point of view is a fiction.”

I return to CON2 and the qualitative characteristic of accounting information, reliability. Does the monetary unit, the American dollar, “faithfully represent what it purports to represent?” My answer is no. The American dollar changes in value everyday. It is not a store of value. On the other hand, gold is a store of value. “Even in ancient times, with primitive communications among vastly different peoples and customs, gold coins generated worldwide confidence…Recognizing the essential requirement of confidence, ancient empires kept the value of their money constant for long periods without debasement (Sutton).” Gold is a reliable monetary unit. Governments cannot create more gold by fiat.
References

Friedman, M. & Schwartz, A. (1963). A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
 
People say it is the most valuable because it is the most valuable. It’s the best currency because it is easily divisible, durable, and not easily produced or mined.

People do not like fiat money because it is easily “produced”.

Diamonds are not easily divisible therefore people do not value diamonds as currency.

This may help you understand my side of the argument. mises.org/media/5212
Please give your time to understand this side of the argument if not to only strengthen your argument.
Von Misses is my favorite economist. I think that we are on the same page. I just think that we have different definitions of “real money” and “intrinsic value.”

These are some of my favorite quotes from Ludwig von Mises. He is known as the head of the “Austrian school” of economics. He was a Professor of Economics at the University of Vienna from 1934 to 1940

“The notion that it is possible to pursue a credit expansion without making stock prices rise and fixed investment expand is absurd.”

“Credit expansion is the governments’ foremost tool in their struggle against the market economy. In their hands it is the magic wand designed to conjure away the scarcity of capital goods, to lower the rate of interest or to abolish it altogether, to finance lavish government spending, to expropriate capitalists, to contrive everlasting booms, and to make everybody prosperous.”

“Firmly committed to the principles of interventionism, governments try to check the undesired result of their interference by reporting to those measures which are nowadays called full-employment: unemployment doles, arbitration of labor disputes, public works by means of lavish public spending, inflation, and credit expansion. All these remedies are worse than the evil they are designed to remove.”

“It is important to remember that government interference always means either violent action or the threat of such action. The funds that a government spends for whatever purposes are levied by taxation. And taxes are paid because the taxpayers are afraid of offering resistance to the tax gatherers. They know that any disobedience or resistance is hopeless. As long as this the state of affairs, the government is able to collect the money that it wants to spend. Government is the last resort the employment of armed men, of policemen, gendarmes, soldiers, prison guards, and hangmen. The essential feature of government is the enforcement of its decrees by beating, killing, and imprisoning. Those who are asking for more government interference are asking ultimately for more compulsion and less freedom.”

“The boom is called good business, prosperity, and upswing. Its unavoidable aftermath, the readjustment of conditions to the real data of the market, is called crisis, slump, bad business, depression”

“The boom squanders through malinvestment scarce factors of production and reduces the stock available through overconsumption; its alleged blessings are paid for by impoverishment.”

“The boom produces impoverishment. But still more disastrous are its moral ravages. It makes people despondent and dispirited. The more optimistic they were under the illusory prosperity of the boom, the greater is their despair and their feeling of frustration. The individual is always ready to ascribe his good luck to his own efficiency and to take it as a well-deserved reward for his talent, application, and probity. But reverses of fortune he always charges to other people, and most of all to the absurdity of social and political institutions. He does not blame the authorities for having fostered the boom. He reviles them for the inevitable collapse. In the opinion of the public, more inflation and more credit expansion are the only remedy against the evils which inflation and credit expansion have brought about.”

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

“The whole system is the acme of the short-run principle.”

“The credit expansion boom is built on the sands of banknotes and deposits. It must collapse.”

“If one wants to avoid the recurrence of periods of economic depression, one must start by preventing the emergence of artificial booms. One must prevent the governments from embarking upon a policy of cheap interest rates, deficit spending, and borrowing from the commercial banks. This is, of course, a very difficult task. Governments are in this regard very obstinate. They long for the popularity that booming business conditions seldom fail to win for the party in power. The unavoidable crash, they think, will appear only later; then the other party will be in power and will have to account to the voters for the evils which their predecessors have sown.”
 
If you think the government can’t take your gold or land—think again. They are already doing so and will only continue as they rob the public blind.

Where is there to run? Nowhere. If this land falls, we’re sunk.

Don’t listen to foolish advice to ‘buy’ gold or land. Caesar robs all.

Pray hard.
 
Thanks, CPA2 for your 2004 article at # 33. It needs to be republished and widely circulated.

Impatience. Insecurity. Instant gratification. I think individuals misuse their money to satisfy these three feelings. Individuals have forgetten that it does take time to build a solid financial foundation. I also think that our schools are NOT teaching “Personal Financial Management.” It should be a mandatory class for ALL students, perhaps in the 8th or 9th grade, certainly before they can drop out at age 16.

Short term success measures with no thought of the effect on long term growth. I think financial institutions have gotten into this habit and they are addicted to it. Sub-prime mortages is, I think, a great example. Fees and commissions are charged, profits made, promotions and bonuses for many. But the very term “SUB-PRIME” tells you that these loans are very risky and risk always has a down side that WILL COME sooner or later. Didn’t anybody pay attention in Econ 1A?

Technological improvements make for better products and more is produced more efficiently requiring fewer workers. But the workers need better skills and eduation and too many Americans are not getting a quality high school and community college education. I read that the High School drop rate is about 25%. We import Asian Indians and Chinese to fill tech jobs Americans are not educated well enough to meet the demand. India and China are gainng economic strength while America is waning and whining.

Left in the shadows is the effect of moving American jobs overseas for several decades. Unions wanted higher wages, business managers and stockholders wanted higher profits, consummers wanted lower prices along with their higher wages. So when we hit a recession, nearly a depression, there are fewer well paying jobs available to rehire the unemployed.

Medical care cost. Sunday’s 60 Minutes told about hospitals ordering way too many tests for patients in the process of dying - their last two months of life. Because they can, Doctors order them, knowing that Medicare will pay, they do just so they generate income. One lady had 25 specialists bill for their services plus the tests, etc. It is difficult to know where to draw the line but 60 minutes would have us believe that in too many cases , there is no line and the government is getting soaked. And what does malpratice insurance cost these days? John Edwards got vey rich. We will never be able to get affordable health care until health COST charges are brought back into line.

So, it seems to me, that our pending Doomsday is of our own greedy making. Most politicians are whipping the greedy horse to even a faster spint. Nature snaps back.

For me, the short and long answer is EDUCATION. Real education, not just passing kids along. Adult Ed for the huge segment that dropped out. Education of those unemployed to fill more demanding jobs. A truly charismatic President could promote this but . . .
 
If you think the government can’t take your gold or land—think again. They are already doing so and will only continue as they rob the public blind.

Where is there to run? Nowhere. If this land falls, we’re sunk.

Don’t listen to foolish advice to ‘buy’ gold or land. Caesar robs all.

Pray hard.
Can I interest you in 2nd Amendment investing? Perhaps bank your vote in a tenth amendment fund? 👍
 
If you think the government can’t take your gold or land—think again. They are already doing so and will only continue as they rob the public blind.

Where is there to run? Nowhere. If this land falls, we’re sunk.

Don’t listen to foolish advice to ‘buy’ gold or land. Caesar robs all.

Pray hard.
**Adam Smith said that economic growth is the product of five things:
  1. Private property**
  2. Free markets
  3. Limited civil government
  4. Accumulation of capital
  5. An increase in the division of labor
Milton Friedman’s conclusion in his book, Free to Choose:

“The two ideas of human freedom and economic freedom working together came to their greatest fruition in the United States…We have been forgetting the basic truth that the greatest threat to human freedom is the concentration of power, whether in the hands of government or anyone else. We have persuaded ourselves that it is safe to grant power, provided it is for good purposes.”

“We are again recognizing the dangers of an over-governed society, coming to understand that good objectives can be perverted by bad means, that reliance on the freedom of people to control their own lives in accordance with their own values is the surest way to achieve the full potential of a great society.”
 
Thanks, CPA2 for your 2004 article at # 33. It needs to be republished and widely circulated.

Impatience. Insecurity. Instant gratification. I think individuals misuse their money to satisfy these three feelings. Individuals have forgetten that it does take time to build a solid financial foundation. I also think that our schools are NOT teaching “Personal Financial Management.” It should be a mandatory class for ALL students, perhaps in the 8th or 9th grade, certainly before they can drop out at age 16.

Short term success measures with no thought of the effect on long term growth. I think financial institutions have gotten into this habit and they are addicted to it. Sub-prime mortages is, I think, a great example. Fees and commissions are charged, profits made, promotions and bonuses for many. But the very term “SUB-PRIME” tells you that these loans are very risky and risk always has a down side that WILL COME sooner or later. Didn’t anybody pay attention in Econ 1A?

Technological improvements make for better products and more is produced more efficiently requiring fewer workers. But the workers need better skills and eduation and too many Americans are not getting a quality high school and community college education. I read that the High School drop rate is about 25%. We import Asian Indians and Chinese to fill tech jobs Americans are not educated well enough to meet the demand. India and China are gainng economic strength while America is waning and whining.

Left in the shadows is the effect of moving American jobs overseas for several decades. Unions wanted higher wages, business managers and stockholders wanted higher profits, consummers wanted lower prices along with their higher wages. So when we hit a recession, nearly a depression, there are fewer well paying jobs available to rehire the unemployed.

Medical care cost. Sunday’s 60 Minutes told about hospitals ordering way too many tests for patients in the process of dying - their last two months of life. Because they can, Doctors order them, knowing that Medicare will pay, they do just so they generate income. One lady had 25 specialists bill for their services plus the tests, etc. It is difficult to know where to draw the line but 60 minutes would have us believe that in too many cases , there is no line and the government is getting soaked. And what does malpratice insurance cost these days? John Edwards got vey rich. We will never be able to get affordable health care until health COST charges are brought back into line.

So, it seems to me, that our pending Doomsday is of our own greedy making. Most politicians are whipping the greedy horse to even a faster spint. Nature snaps back.

For me, the short and long answer is EDUCATION. Real education, not just passing kids along. Adult Ed for the huge segment that dropped out. Education of those unemployed to fill more demanding jobs. A truly charismatic President could promote this but . . .
When Texas put a cap on medical malpractice lawsuits, the number of defensive and unnecessary medical tests dropped and the medical costs dropped by [from memory] 40%.

**
 
**Adam Smith said that economic growth is the product of five things:
  1. Private property**
  2. Free markets
  3. Limited civil government
  4. Accumulation of capital
  5. An increase in the division of labor
Milton Friedman’s conclusion in his book, Free to Choose:

“The two ideas of human freedom and economic freedom working together came to their greatest fruition in the United States…We have been forgetting the basic truth that the greatest threat to human freedom is the concentration of power, whether in the hands of government or anyone else. We have persuaded ourselves that it is safe to grant power, provided it is for good purposes.”

“We are again recognizing the dangers of an over-governed society, coming to understand that good objectives can be perverted by bad means, that reliance on the freedom of people to control their own lives in accordance with their own values is the surest way to achieve the full potential of a great society.”
The current crop of arm-chair Marxists now running the United States do not believe in the first four items in the list. They are adamantly opposed to private property, free markets, limited government, and accumulation of capital. And they are opposed to personal individual liberty. And they are generally atheists, as well.

They have also persuaded themselves that they are smarter and can make better decisions than the average person. So, they have created agencies in which they can work to make those decisions, unencumbered by traditional morality.

In addition to not relying on religious scruples, they also are distrustful of math and science, preferring to rely on consensus. So, they are not technocrats. For example, radiation is invisible, and can only be worked with using sensitive instruments and complex math involving decay rates, and the abstruse behavior of different elements and isotopes of the different elements. The rigorous nature and inability to be verbally manipulated make math and science unattractive to them.

They DO believe in themselves, in their own inherent ability to intuitively make wise decisions, … by definition, any decision they make is a good and wise decision. Their guiding principle is quickness. The quicker someone can respond, the more respect they have for that person. The ability to “spin” words and call upon consensus are the only two things they need for any decision in any subject.
 
The current crop of arm-chair Marxists now running the United States do not believe in the first four items in the list. They are adamantly opposed to private property, free markets, limited government, and accumulation of capital. And they are opposed to personal individual liberty. And they are generally atheists, as well.

They have also persuaded themselves that they are smarter and can make better decisions than the average person. So, they have created agencies in which they can work to make those decisions, unencumbered by traditional morality.
You are correct. These socialists and secularists in Washington are destroying the dollar, our freedom and the United States. Winston Churchill was right when he said that the philosophy of socialism was failure, the creed of socialism was ignorance and the gospel of socialism was envy.
 
When Texas put a cap on medical malpractice lawsuits, the number of defensive and unnecessary medical tests dropped and the medical costs dropped by [from memory] 40%.

**

The United States is the only country in the world to have punitive damages. The sole purpose of punitive damages is to punish companies. All other countries just have compensatory damages.
 
**Major leading indicator in free fall! **
by Claus Vogt

In my July 14 Money and Markets column, I explained how the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index confirmed my bearish forecast.

Back then, the index’s growth rate was minus 8.3 percent. And as you can see in the chart below, it is continuing to freefall — tumbling to minus 10.3 percent for the week ending July 30 …

Since the year-over-year percentage change sliced through the zero line at the end of May, it has quickly fallen to levels signaling a very high risk of recession. What’s more, it has never fallen as low as its current reading without the economy already in — or on its way to — a recession.

In addition to the ECRI weekly indicator’s very clear message, I see six more reasons that back up my argument for a double-dip recession hitting the U.S.:

First, the economic rebound since March 2009 was bought with unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. There has not been a real, market-generated recovery.

Second, despite the huge sums of taxpayer money and serial bailouts, the rebound is the weakest on record.

Third, at least 80 percent of this huge stimulus program has been used up. There isn’t much left to keep the economic engines running.

Fourth, aside from government debt, the wheels of credit creation are still sputtering. And that’s a problem, since former recoveries have always been driven by credit growth.


**Last week’s employment report spells bad news for retailers.

Fifth, the labor market is still in dire straits — and so is consumer spending. Friday’s disappointing payroll report is a very strong hint that the labor market is again deteriorating. **

Following the ECRI data, this is not surprising. Historically, there has been a strong correlation between the ECRI weekly index and payroll numbers. Furthermore, I expect much weaker employment reports in the weeks and months to come.

Sixth, the housing mess has not been cleaned up yet. I expect another huge wave of mortgage debt defaults, leading to another round of falling home prices and problems for the banking sector.

All in all, the big economic picture is pretty grim. Indeed, the economy is at a crossroads here. Unfortunately, though, it seems to be heading down the recession path again.

And since every recession in history has been accompanied by a severe stock bear market, my suggestion is clear: Make sure that your portfolio is protected from this wealth-destroying scenario.

Best wishes,

Claus
 
The United States is the only country in the world to have punitive damages.
thank you for giving the information

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