Doomsday Scenario for U.S. Economy?

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I honestly don’t really know anything about the economy. I don’t know anything about money either. That might be why I never seem to have any around.

I do know a little something about work though, and I will probably keep doing it whether paychecks keep coming in or not. And I know the Lord is not my financial advisor, he is my shepherd. So I will work and pray.
You have the right survival attitude, pray and work!
 
Since the year 2000, a pound of beef has risen from $1.94 to $2.88, a 48% gain in nominal terms. In gold terms, however, a pound of ground beef has shed 63% of its value.

Do not confuse nominal terms for dollars and real terms for dollars. Remember, the dollar is not tied to anything of value. Your measuring stick, the dollar, is always changing in size.

Most of the ancient coins contained about 130 grains of gold. It did not matter what country minted the coins. The coins all had the same purchasing power!
 
The economies of China, India, and Southeast Asia will grow up to four times faster than the U.S.
by Larry Edelson

For one thing, combined there are more than 3.4 billion people in China,
India and the rest of Asia and Southeast Asia, more than half the world’s
population.

And, as I’ve noted many times in the past and previously above, when
almost half the world’s population is emerging from previously closed
economies — it’s a force that can easily propel local economic growth
forward for decades.

And unlike the West, those economies can advance their growth even in
the absence of major innovation, simply because those economies are in the
early stages of capitalism.

For another, **Asia is not a debt riddled culture. **The average savings rate
in Asia is nearly 40% of income — more than six times that of the West.
The per capita debt in Asia is a mere ONE-SIXTH of what it is in the West.

In short, there is ample pent-up consumer demand, and plenty of real
money unencumbered by debt, to keep Asia cooking for some time to come.
Indeed, while the U.S. has grown at a mere 2.5% annual pace so far this
year …
 China is growing at 11.1%
 India at 8.0%
 Indonesia at 6.2%
 Thailand at 10%
 Singapore at an astounding 19.3%

The bottom line: We are still in the very early stages of one of the most
powerful mega-cycles in the history of civilization. A shift of power, capital,
wealth and investment opportunities from the West to the East.
It’s a wealth shift from economies that are bogged down in debt and
deficits
— and that are trying to print their way out of the mess — to
economies that are rich in cash, that are in the early stages of their growth
… that are home to almost 60% of the world’s population … and that are
full of confidence in their future.

Because of the long-term decline in the value of the U.S. dollar and
problems with the euro as well, Asian currencies are likely to appreciate too.
 
Forecast #1. **The Obama administration and Congress will be paralyzed, unable to pass another big stimulus package, and unable to prevent a double-dip recession. **

Just in the past few weeks, we’ve seen an outpouring of bad data and news on the economy — GDP slowing sharply, a key manufacturing index hitting a seven month low, home sales running at the lowest level in nearly a half-century, bank lending falling.

Martin: Not to mention the horrendous jobs reports!

Mike: Yes! And in response, you’re already starting to hear some voices clamoring for another stimulus package. But while the Obama economy is sinking fast … the Obama administration is moving slowly. Congress is paralyzed.

Martin: Of course! People are saying: “Hey, you’ve spent a fortune of our money on the first bailout for the economy, and it bought us peanuts. Now, you want to spend another fortune on another bailout and throw us some more peanuts!?”

The president obviously does not have the political capital to make even that much happen.

Mike: And he doesn’t have the financial capital! The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the president’s budget will produce a deficit of $1.5 trillion this year and $1.3 trillion in 2011, already far worse than they thought just a year ago.

Martin: Actually their estimate was based on the situation in the economy before it started sinking in the last couple of months.

Mike: Exactly! Now, all their deficit projections aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on. They’re going to get far lower income tax revenues than they’ve been expecting. They’re going to have far bigger bills for unemployment checks than they’ve been expecting. Even if the economy just slows down moderately, the deficit could explode well past $2 trillion in 2011.

And it’s the exploding deficit that’s bringing massive political resistance to more stimulus on both sides of the aisle.

Martin: With the administration and Congress paralyzed, and the economy sinking, what does that mean?

Claus Vogt: I want to give you my perspective on this from Berlin, if I may.

Martin: Go ahead, Claus.

Claus: Five years ago, my co-author and I wrote a book, the Greenspan Dossier, predicting a housing bust in the U.S. and in Europe — and in response, big money printing by Greenspan and the European Central Bank. Then, last year, we wrote a second new book, predicting still more money printing — this time by Bernanke and the European Central Bank.
 
Still seems like you’re personally trying to sell us something.
I think those gold sellers on TV don’t spend nearly as long on their infomercials as this.

I just wish CPA2 would admit that there is downside risk to gold. The prospectuses of all those gold-selling companies have warnings all over them.
 
Since the year 2000, a pound of beef has risen from $1.94 to $2.88, a 48% gain in nominal terms. In gold terms, however, a pound of ground beef has shed 63% of its value.
The price I received for cattle in late 2008 is up now by almost the exact same amount that gold is up since then. But wait! They have had calves twice since then, which I sold, and are fixing to have calves again.

So, ladies and gentlemen, cattle beat gold, and by a lot!

So did the bank stock I mentioned earlier, but which the gold bugs on here ignored. It beat gold even more soundly than cattle did!

My real point is that you can take almost anything and find a date in the past and compare the price then to the price now and make it look good. Or, you can make it look bad. In the late 1970s, gold touched $1,000. Adjusted for inflation, gold is presently about $800 short of that high. So, after all these years, it’s still down, and earned exactly zero interest during that whole time. Does that mean gold is a dog as an investment?

Maybe. A stock that performed like that would definitely be considered a dog.
 
More fear mongering. So why not move to Canada? Or better yet, why doesn’t Canada just buy the US?

//satire//

Hurry, Hurry, Hurry!

Get your patented Economic Snake Oil here.

Pardon me, sir. Don’t you know the U S of A is about to go bust? That we’ll all be living in Hoovervilles and living off the land where we can?

“What? What are you talking about?”

The government has spent itself into a hole it can’t crawl out of. Gloom and doom as far as the eye can see.

“And what will that snake oil do for me?”

Why it’ll make you vote straight Republican in November.

“I don’t need that stuff. I’ll make up my own mind, thank you very much.”

// end satire //

Think straight. Ignore the prophets of fear.

God bless,
Ed/QUOTE
Prophets of fear? How about plain old economic theory? You can’t keep spending more than you take in. Just look at other empires which have collapsed. How about the Ottoman Empire, England, Spain, and Russia? They all overspent and overextended. That’s what the U.S. has done.
 
edwest2;6959808:
More fear mongering. So why not move to Canada? Or better yet, why doesn’t Canada just buy the US?

//satire//

Hurry, Hurry, Hurry!

Get your patented Economic Snake Oil here.

Pardon me, sir. Don’t you know the U S of A is about to go bust? That we’ll all be living in Hoovervilles and living off the land where we can?

“What? What are you talking about?”

The government has spent itself into a hole it can’t crawl out of. Gloom and doom as far as the eye can see.

“And what will that snake oil do for me?”

Why it’ll make you vote straight Republican in November.

“I don’t need that stuff. I’ll make up my own mind, thank you very much.”

// end satire //

Think straight. Ignore the prophets of fear.

God bless,
Ed
Ok. I think we need to cede the point that many peoples over the eons have used gold as currency (also stones, leather, shells, paper, etc, but I digress). As currency, it has been useful at times, but not at all times.

Gold’s virtues are that it doesn’t rust or decay and is fairly pretty. But it is symbolic of value, only. Its actual uses, other than for jewelry, are few. And, those stones, leather strips, shells, paper, etc are also symbolic of value. Real value is what people produce that other people need.

Gold is hard to replace, too, because it’s fairly rare (notwithstanding that nobody really knows how much is hidden in all the places gold lovers hide it). But it does get added to. It just depends on the price in things one can convert it to. If it’s high, people mine more. If it’s low, they mine less. When its price goes up, all those “gold buyers” pop up in every town and people convert their “junk jewelry” and hidden gold to greenbacks they can spend. Others, however, buy from those gold dealers and hide it somewhere. When it declines, the buyers disappear like so many cockroaches when the lights go on, and gold just sits in bank boxes, home safes and buried in back yards and, yes, in unworn jewelry in the backs of dresser drawers. It’s the perception of value, not any inherent value, that causes its ups and downs.

So, we can reflect that the Mississippi River is totally irreplaceable. Can’t make another one. Can’t dig one up. Can’t go searching in the backyards of France or vaults in Switzerland or the basements of Mormons to find another Mississippi River. So, perhaps paper money should be backed by undivided shares in the Mississippi River. If everybody acknowledged that as solid and reliable, we wouldn’t need to all hoard gold. Then, gold’s only use would be for jewelry and it would drop to $10/ounce or something.😉

The point being, that it really doesn’t matter what “stands behind” currency. It only matters if people perceive that it will buy what they want and need.
 
Unemployment: 16.5 percent!
Total jobs lost: 16.6 million!
GDP implosion: -11.1 percent


Imagine this scenario: Official unemployment at 16.5 percent …
total jobs lost of 16.6 million — double the amount so far … and an
implosion in the entire U.S. economy bringing a whopping 11.1 percent
decline in GDP — four times worse than last year’s contraction.
And bear in mind that scenario assumes no major Wall Street meltdown.
Throw in a renewed banking panic or credit market collapse
… and it gets far, far worse!

If that sounds like doomsday science fiction, I have news for you: It’s actually
the scenario painted by two prominent economists who are among the closest to the
Obama administration — Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, and
Alan Blinder, former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Their agenda was to defend Obama’s and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interventions
in the economy — to show how bad things would have been in the past if
they had NOT come to the rescue with massive government bailouts, stimulus, and
money printing.

But their scenario also paints a vivid picture of how bad things could be in the
future when the money from the bailouts, stimulus, and money printing runs out …
which is precisely what’s beginning to happen right now!

Relapse Inevitable Because Washington Policy Makers Only Postponed
the Great Recession. They Did Nothing to Cure Its Causes!

Housing, Banking, Other Propped-up Sectors
Starting to Sink as Bailout Money Dries up!


Mike Larson
I think the worst part is “They did Nothing…”, psychologist define insanity as the expectation of change after repeating previous action. The Ol “Do same, get same!”
The San Francisco Federal Reserve Board wrote in their newsletter “the serious possibility of a Recession drp in 2011 and 2012.”
What no one wants to admit is that, in comparison with the industrial world, our salaries are too high and prices are too high. We borrow a Trillion a year to make it possible “to continue to wait” for the end of the Recession. The only effort I know was a minor subsidy to promote hiring of Low Income Workers but it was fought in Congress, that is, Congress believes that by merely waiting, good times will roll!!!
In local cities, city and transportation workers insist they need a higher salary, ignoring the drop in the Cost of Living. Congress gave themselves what they denied Seniors, a Cost of Living Allowance. They do not have a clue!
In short, the consensus is to wait, and wait, and wait and, as if by magic, good times will come back!!
Catholics believe in following “the truth” because He is the Truth! Wishful thinking is not God and we need not follow it, only the truth.
With over 6 Million unemployed for over six months and 100,000 for over 99 weeks, is it not time to DO something? Anything…

But, I must admit certain unease about the great silence from our political leaders and I began to doubt but, sadly, the data came in, big way, a few days ago: Our monthly trade deficit is $50 Billion, up by $10 Billion a year earlier. Those are facts, unmentioned facts, but facts. Did it make the headlines? No, it was in the Business section, that nobody reads. We need “Chicken Little” but bad!
 
I think the worst part is “They did Nothing…”, psychologist define insanity as the expectation of change after repeating previous action. The Ol “Do same, get same!”
The San Francisco Federal Reserve Board wrote in their newsletter “the serious possibility of a Recession drp in 2011 and 2012.”
What no one wants to admit is that, in comparison with the industrial world, our salaries are too high and prices are too high. We borrow a Trillion a year to make it possible “to continue to wait” for the end of the Recession. The only effort I know was a minor subsidy to promote hiring of Low Income Workers but it was fought in Congress, that is, Congress believes that by merely waiting, good times will roll!!!
In local cities, city and transportation workers insist they need a higher salary, ignoring the drop in the Cost of Living. Congress gave themselves what they denied Seniors, a Cost of Living Allowance. They do not have a clue!
In short, the consensus is to wait, and wait, and wait and, as if by magic, good times will come back!!
Catholics believe in following “the truth” because He is the Truth! Wishful thinking is not God and we need not follow it, only the truth.
With over 6 Million unemployed for over six months and 100,000 for over 99 weeks, is it not time to DO something? Anything…

But, I must admit certain unease about the great silence from our political leaders and I began to doubt but, sadly, the data came in, big way, a few days ago: Our monthly trade deficit is $50 Billion, up by $10 Billion a year earlier. Those are facts, unmentioned facts, but facts. Did it make the headlines? No, it was in the Business section, that nobody reads. We need “Chicken Little” but bad!
I agree, waiting will do nothing to help the situation, in and of itself. But there is nothing we can do but wait. Right now, we have a radical left wing government in power. It cannot be made to do anything that does not fit its agenda, and little of its agenda can be stopped.

Business people, particularly small business people, are afraid of this leftist agenda and are not investing, borrowing or hiring. Nothing but the current government’s complete loss of power will likely fix that, because this government’s declaring that it will stop doing radical things will not be believable.

It’s possible that after the 2010 elections, there will be some basis for optimism for the economy. But even if many of the radical party are ousted, it may attempt even more drastic things during the “lame duck” session following the November elections.

Even if less radical congressmen are elected in November, Obama can veto anything they enact, and non-radical new congressmen will almost certainly not be able to override his veto. All Democrats should now be considered “radical”, no matter what their actual views, because uber-radical Nancy Pelosi owns them, as was proved with the health insurance bill. Some few Democrats of better character (like Evan Bayh) are simply leaving in disgust, but most are not.

So, at the very best, “waiting” is probably all we have. Frankly, I believe the economy would already be well on the road to recovery and full employment were it not for the left wing government now in power. But I do not believe it will improve significantly as long as they are in power. Unfortunately, we will just have to wait it out.
 
Forecast #2. **The entire burden of fighting recession and financing deficits will fall on central banks. Therefore, Bernanke and his counterparts in Europe will launch a second, even bigger round of money printing. **

They call it QE2 — quantitative easing #2. But regardless of the fancy names, everyone in Washington and on Wall Street knows exactly what it is: Running the printing presses. Flooding the world with dollars.

Those paper dollars will not create real prosperity in the United States or Europe. At best, they create a temporary, false prosperity. And no matter what, a substantial portion of that money winds up flowing to other countries where there is true, fundamental growth.
 
Forecast #3. **The sovereign debt crisis will soon return with a vengeance — first in Eastern Europe, then in the U.S. and the U.K. **

If anyone in this conference thinks the sovereign debt crisis is “over,” I invite you to come to Berlin and see what’s really going on here. It’s not over. Not by a long shot.

Martin: Even though the IMF and the EU bailed out Greece, Portugal, Spain and all the other PIIGS countries.

Claus: Ha! Everyone seems to think it was the IMF and the EU that bailed out the PIIGS. Not true! It was mostly German money that bailed them out. But that bailout is now causing fatal political problems for Angela Merkel and for her coalition partner, Guido Westerwelle.
And everyone seems to forget that the PIIGS countries are not the only ones in trouble.

The most shocking forecast didn’t come from me. It came from one of the world’s most respected institutions — about 700 kilometers southwest of me. I am talking about the Bank of International Settlements in Basil, Switzerland — the BIS.

Martin: The central bank of central banks!

Claus: Exactly. That is what it is. The BIS provides proof that the sovereign debts of the United States are worse than the sovereign debts of PIIGS countries like Ireland and Spain.

Martin: Show us that proof.

Claus: I was planning to. The BIS says the government debts in Spain are 73% of GDP and the debts in Ireland are 83% of GDP.
In the U.S., they’re even bigger — 90% of GDP.

But that’s nothing in comparison to what they’re projecting for the future. The BIS says that, if the U.S. government allows current trends to continue … The government debt burden in the United States will soon be worse than the debt burden in Greece! Ultimately, the debt burden in the U.S. will reach 400% of GDP, more than triple the debt burden of Greece today.
 
Have we just entered the Economic Weekly World News Zone? Where the end of the world is predicted in every other issue?

God bless,
Ed
 
Forecast #4. **The government debt burden in the United States will soon be worse than the debt burden in Greece! Ultimately, the debt burden in the U.S. will reach 400% of GDP, more than triple the debt burden of Greece today. **

Martin: How much is it in Greece today?

Claus: 129% of GDP.

Martin: And in the U.S.?

Claus: 90% of GDP this year, 95% next year and, in the future, 400%. Three times worse than Greece!

Remember: This is not my personal forecast; it’s the projection from the Bank of International Settlements.

Martin: And the consequence of all this?

Claus: More recession in Europe and the U.S., more money printing to offset the shocks, more declines in the euro and the U.S. dollar … and at best, more false prosperity. So to answer your question, all those dollars are going to naturally flow to where the real prosperity is.

Martin: I think that’s our cue to switch to the good news side of this story. Tony?

Tony Sagami: I’ve been champing at the bit to jump in here and give you an entirely different perspective on this crisis. As you know, I was born in Japan. I now live in Asia. I’ve just made multiple research trips to China, Singapore, Indonesia. And when I see the tremendous contrasts between Asia and the U.S., they remind me of the father with two daughters.

One daughter was the pessimist; the other, the optimist. The father gave the pessimistic daughter a pony, and she responded: “Darn! Now I have to feed it and someday it’ll get sick and die.”

He then gave the optimistic daughter a pile of horse manure. But she exclaimed, “Yippee! With all this manure, there’s got to be a pony here somewhere.”

And I’ve got to tell you: While you guys have been talking all about the horse manure in the West, investors here in Asia have been riding one of the prettiest ponies to profits we’ve ever seen.

Martin: Touché!

Tony: You said that a lot of the money the Fed will print will flow to where the real growth is, where the growth is based on real demand — not just funny money. That’s China and the rest of Asia.

Martin: But some people are saying China is booming so fast it could be another big bubble.

Tony: They’re talking about the real estate market specifically. And yes, in some parts of China, like the affluent eastern coastal cities, real estate is overheated. But in central and western China, real estate is still very affordable, and it’s still solid. Plus, you’ve got to put China’s real estate market into the context of a broad comparison between the U.S. and Chinese economies.

China is embracing capitalism and free enterprise at every opportunity. The U.S. is moving in precisely the opposite direction.

In the U.S. last year, even despite all the bailouts, the economy contracted by 2.4%. Meanwhile, China’s economy GREW by 9.1%. That’s a huge difference!

Right now, the U.S. is growing at an annual rate of about 2.5%.China is expected to grow 10.5%, or at least four times faster.

Go back in time, and you see the same pattern, year after year after year.

Just recently, China’s industrial company profits surged 82%.

Retail sales soared 18%, six times better than in the U.S.

China’s exports in June surged 44% compared to last year; while U.S. exports increased by a measly 2%.

China now consumes more energy than the United States. Even General Motors now sells more cars in China than it sells in the U.S.
 
Since the year 2000, a pound of beef has risen from $1.94 to $2.88, a 48% gain in nominal terms. In gold terms, however, a pound of ground beef has shed 63% of its value.

Do not confuse nominal terms for dollars and real terms for dollars. Remember, the dollar is not tied to anything of value. Your measuring stick, the dollar, is always changing in size.

Most of the ancient coins contained about 130 grains of gold. It did not matter what country minted the coins. The coins all had the same purchasing power!
Hmmm. I am beginning to see a pattern here, and it looks more like viral marketing for gold sellers than it does like a real conversation.
 
Hmmm. I am beginning to see a pattern here, and it looks more like viral marketing for gold sellers than it does like a real conversation.
Who is selling gold?

Today the American dollar is money and gold varies in price everyday. If gold were the medium of exchange, the American dollar would vary every day. When I was in Japan, the American dollar was worth .92 cents one day, .93 cents another, and .97 cents just a few days later.

Measuring values in terms of an asset that represents the real value of money is the only real way to measure anything today. That’s even truer these days than ever before because paper currencies are so fickle and volatile in nature.

The dollar is not tied to anything of value; therefore, the dollar is a fiction.
 
*** Media Of Fear Alert ***

I just used some fictional money today to buy stuff and will use more on the way home. Please stop trying to teach people how to be afraid of money.

Thanks,
Ed
 
*** Media Of Fear Alert ***

I just used some fictional money today to buy stuff and will use more on the way home. Please stop trying to teach people how to be afraid of money.

Thanks,
Ed
The investment with the highest risk is cash! We are at the end of an era. It has taken many years to destroy the Almighty dollar. The next step will be for the G20 nations to remove the dollar as the reserve currency of the world. When that happens, we will have to pay for oil, etc. with a new basket of of currencies, which will include gold, not fictional dollars.

There is actually a shortage of paper money. Paper money only represents 2% of the money supply; the rest is digital money. That was one of the worries of Y2K. How was the government going to supply the banks with enough paper money to prevent a run on the banks?

Gold is a store of value, not a medium of exchange. Government monopoly (funny) money is a medium of exchange, not a store of value. Gold does not represent debt. The dollar represents debt and almost all of your investments, with the exception of stocks, represent debt.

You may be satisfied with your retirement check now, but you will not be happy in ten years from now. You may have a million dollars in your pocket, but if a cup of coffee costs $600,000 you are in trouble.

The number of dollars that you have in your pocket does not matter. It is the PURCHASING POWER of those dollars that matters. I call this “pooh-pooh” accounting. We use a monetary unit, the dollar. It represents a real problem for us accountants who try to compare financial statements when inflation is double digits or triple digits. What monetary unit could we use that is not the dollar? I can make a case for using the weight of gold as the new (old) monetary unit.
 
Who is selling gold?

Today the American dollar is money and gold varies in price everyday. If gold were the medium of exchange, the American dollar would vary every day. When I was in Japan, the American dollar was worth .92 cents one day, .93 cents another, and .97 cents just a few days later.

Measuring values in terms of an asset that represents the real value of money is the only real way to measure anything today. That’s even truer these days than ever before because paper currencies are so fickle and volatile in nature.

The dollar is not tied to anything of value; therefore, the dollar is a fiction.
Who is selling gold is my question, as well. I have seen you on a couple of threads here, and you present a very consistent message. Your posts all directly or indirectly recommend that people transform much of their savings into gold. In my opinion, that is neither responsible advice, nor appropriate for this forum.
 
And more anonymous nonsense from ‘the sky is falling’ crowd.

Please stop it. You’re just repeating yourself now.

God bless,
Ed
 
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