Economic Depression Looms

[Texas_Roofer]

2012, huh?

I think that the world will eventually enter another Dark Ages (we’re due for another one - they cycle every 500-1000 years), but later in the 21st or early 22nd Century. Why? Because the Earth’s economically viable resources are depleting (forget the Space Elevator - I don’t think even that will be viable until solar radiation and lack of gravity can be solved, not to mention such a project would involve more than, or the entire GDP of half the nations on Earth), and things are only going to get more expensive. This happened to the Middle East in around 1500BC to 1250BC (prices of tin skyrocketed because all known resources were depleted, which made farming more expensive, and grain was their currency of the day). Egypt, Greece, Babylon, and the Hittites all waned during that period. As always seems to happen during a Dark Ages, there’s one group of people (Israel in this case) that “take advantage” of the situation and grow, retaining some of the knowledge and technology.

It is not aciddental that grain is too low in value to use for money, we learned how to over produce it. Similarly crude oil was then though of as waste while today it is valuable. These are examples of human development. We create nor distroy any water, air, etc… Society will continue to grow. The Middle East has never been better than today. We know how to replace oil it is simple cheaper to use the oil. Our future is bright. The US economic strength is in trouble but not the US society. To collapse society you would have to allow military strength to some of these crazy third world leader, who would then need to stop free trade and education. A decline in trade and education can bring on dark ages however that is extremely unlikely.

 

[human_being]

Agree in part. Respectfully dissent in part.

Having lived through recessions, I am disinclined to believe we’re headed for anything like the Great Depression, let alone anything worse. The market is timorously up. Unemployment is slowing down. Inflation is essentially flat. One thing my grandfather told me was this: While, in the depression, 20% or so were unemployed, it has to be remembered that 80% or so were employed. Right now, we’re at 9% unemployment, headed for 10%. But 91% are employed. In my own lifetime, I have seen worse.

People are hesitant to invest, and that’s a fact. But there are enormous sums of money sitting on the sidelines waiting to invest. Ten trillion was the last number I heard. The danger is that they won’t do it at all. But the likelihood is that they will. People are strapped because they’re trying to reduce debt. Baby boomers are worrying about the retirement they took for granted, and don’t want to spend money right now either. But at a point, they’ll feel less burdened by all of that and start investing and spending again.

Things look differently in different places. I have no doubt that conditions in what is sometimes referred to as the “Rust Belt”, in California and in Florida are exceedingly grim looking. But that’s not true everywhere at all. Nor, in other places, did the bubble get as big as it did in those places. Around here, for example, I can’t see that there is really much change in home prices or in buying…except with the McMansions, and it was stupid of people to build them in the first place. They were never very saleable, because people who have the money for a “dream house” usually want to build their own to serve their own idiosyncrasies.

The big danger, it seems to me, is not the economy itself, but the cure. Flooding the economy with printed greenbacks does promise future inflation, and there’s no mystery to that. The government should stop right now, but it won’t. At present, I’m not so sure economic activity isn’t being retarded by the government itself. I suspect a substantial portion of the “sideline cash” is waiting for super-high bond rates sometime in 2010 or 2011. That, of all notions, needs to be squelched. And it will only happen if the government stops this profligate spending.

Obama’s “pay as you go” cannot be seriously intended. Nevertheless, I believe tax increases are seriously intended, and well beyond simple expiration of the Bush tax cuts. I do believe that will have a dampening effect on the economy, as it will discourage investment.

Something else I learned in the recessions I have lived through. The extreme prognosticators are always wrong. But when it comes to predicting howling inflation in about two years, I don’t see how they could be wrong.

Thank you very much for the level-headed more positive response. There was gonna be a computer meltdown or something once the clock struck midnight 2000A.D. …It never happened.

 

[DawnInTexas]

The problem with our Country is-abortion.

If we repented and turned back to God-He would save us. From ourselves.

Blame whatever on whatever you want, but God will not bless our Country who does not defend life. We have been told this over and over by the Saints of our day-God has sent to us.

Father Corapi has videos on youtube:

WAKE UP AMERICA!
youtube.com/watch?v=pTHmn13v7Ts

NEW WAR/OLD WAR
youtube.com/watch?v=B2PsB5T5Ndo&feature=channel

 

[human_being]

I appreciate your thoughts on this; I’m hoping that the worst predictions will not come to pass. As to inflation, I worry that it will unduly penalize those who did not participate in debt engorgement. For their thrift, they will reap less buying power.

I must admit that I never realised how much businesses of all sizes rely on credit to survive day by day…Did any of the banking bailouts have anything to do with alot of failed businesses not repaying loans ? Will we ever know the truth?

 

[human_being]

The Pope is releasing a new encylical on labor and the economy or something similar on 06-29-09. This is very important to listen to, if you ask me. The labor force of the world has been abused for profit’s sake. Business and the market have been using man instead of man using the market. Putting profit before the common good and dignity of man has caused the abuse of workers throughout the world. This leads to sins that cry out to heaven for justice or vengence. The economic system of our world trade is either gonna wake up now and truly listen to the pope,as opposed to the free traders taking advantage of people,or pay a very heavy price. What was a 1st wake up call on this issue…the WORLD TRADE centers. We must not have learned our lesson and here we are. We need some serious ethical overhauling in business and trade if you ask me. But you know opinions…everybody’s got one.

 

[a_priori]

Tinfoil hats! Get your tinfoil hats here! Prevents government mind control 100%. Buy now and get volume discounts!

Sorry, guys. I’m not biting. We’ve got a serious problem going on, but it need not be a calamity. Our problems are longer term by a long shot than you predict.

Or is this all just the latest NRA advertising campaign??..

It’s the people who believe that our public debt load is sustainable that need the tinfoil hats.

 

[incense]

Thank you very much for the level-headed more positive response. There was gonna be a computer meltdown or something once the clock struck midnight 2000A.D. …It never happened.

Because of the warning, companies updated their computers and there were few problems. But lots of companies tested their software and found out it would not work when the century changed, and so fixed it in time. Many just replaced it because they couldn’t find someone who could still do FORTRAN programming.

If they wouldnt’ have been warned, they wouldn’t have looked. And there would have been a problem.