Evolution and Creationism

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More valuable to whom? To us? We are here because it’s more valuable to us for us to be here? That’s a bootstrap argument if I’ve ever heard one
Well, nonintelligent beings surely aren’t concerned. My main point is it would be a lot more like getting a straight flush than a “x” high or even a pair.
But I don’t like probabilistic arguments.
I think (I am not him, so I am not sure) he was trying to get at the time problem, which I would think is better phrased as,
If you graph a model of our understanding of evolutionary processes and then add in the time ascribed from the first life on Earth, with rather fair variables, then you get nowhere near what we have now. So, something is missing in understanding, whatever it might be.
 
On July 22, 1985, the New Jersey Supreme Court suggested that county clerk Nicholas Caputo institute new procedures for determining the places of candidates’ names on county election ballots, since out of the last 41 drawings conducted by Caputo Democratic candidates had won the coveted top line on the ballot an astonishing 40 times. Observing that the odds against such results are 50 billion to 1, the Court remarked that few reasonable persons would think that blind chance was responsible for the results of Caputo’s drawings.

We all recognize the wisdom of the Court’s recommendation. But why? We are tempted to say that the results of Caputo’s drawings were simply too improbable to be attributed to chance. But that answer cannot be the whole story, since any result of a random drawing is as equally improbable as any other. What is it in addition to the improbability of the result that warrants our intuitive inference to design rather than chance?

This is the question which mathematician and philosopher William Dembski seeks to answer. The solution—which Dembski develops with great precision and detail—may be roughly summarized by saying that chance is ruled out when the highly improbable event conforms to a discernible pattern which is given independently of the event itself. A pattern is given independently of an event if we can formulate this pattern without any information concerning the event itself. Dembski calls a probability conjoined with such a pattern a “specified” probability and formulates the Law of Small Probability: specified events of small probability do not occur by chance.

In the Caputo case, knowing that Caputo was a Democrat and that he had control over the drawings, we can formulate various cheating patterns which would emerge if Caputo were rigging the drawings. Inquiring what pattern characterized the actual series of drawings, we find—lo and behold!—that the actual pattern of drawings is included in the set of preformulated cheating patterns. Therefore, we know that the pattern was not due to chance, but to design.

On the basis of his analysis, Dembski outlines a tenstep Generic Chance Elimination Argument:
  1. One learns that some event has occurred.
  2. Examining the circumstances under which the event occurred, one finds that the event could only have been produced by a certain chance process (or processes).
  3. One identifies a pattern which characterizes the event.
  4. One calculates the probability of the event given the chance hypothesis.
  5. One determines what probabilistic resources were available for producing the event via the chance hypothesis.
  6. On the basis of the probabilistic resources, one calculates the probability of the event’s occurring by chance once out of all the available opportunities to occur.
  7. One finds that the above probability is sufficiently small.
  8. One identifies a body of information which is independent of the event’s occurrence.
  9. One determines that one can formulate the pattern referred to in step (3) on the basis of this body of independent information.
  10. One is warranted in inferring that the event did not occur by chance.
CONTINUED…
 
This is a simplification of Dembski’s analysis, which he develops and defends with painstaking rigor and detail.

Dembski’s analysis will be of interest to all persons who are concerned with detecting design, including forensic scientists, detectives, insurance fraud investigators, exposers of scientific data falsification, cryptographers, and SETI investigators. Intriguingly, it will also be of interest to natural theologians. For in contemporary cosmology the heated debate surrounding the finetuning of the universe and the socalled Anthropic Principle will be greatly clarified by Dembski’s Law of Small Probability.

Consider the application of the above Generic Chance Elimination Argument to the finetuning of the universe:
  1. One learns that the physical constants and quantities given in the Big Bang possess certain values.
  2. Examining the circumstances under which the Big Bang occurred, one finds that there is no Theory of Everything which would render physically necessary the values of all the constants and quantities, so they must be attributed to sheer accident.
  3. One discovers that the values of the constants and quantities are incomprehensibly finetuned for the existence of intelligent, carbonbased life.
  4. The probability of each value and of all the values together occurring by chance is vanishingly small.
  5. There is only one universe; it is illicit in the absence of evidence to multiply one’s probabilistic resources ( i.e ., postulate a World Ensemble of universes) simply to avert the design inference.
  6. Given that the universe has occurred only once, the probability of the constants and quantities’ all having the values they do remains vanishingly small.
  7. This probability is well within the bounds needed to eliminate chance.
  8. One has physical information concerning the necessary conditions for intelligent, carbonbased life ( e.g. , certain temperature range, existence of certain elements, certain gravitational and electromagnetic forces, etc .).
  9. This information about the finelytuned conditions requisite for a life permitting universe is independent of the pattern discerned in step (3).
  10. One is warranted in inferring that the physical constants and quantities given in the Big Bang are not the result of chance.
One is thus justified in inferring that the initial conditions of the universe are due to design.

CONTINUED…
 
Dembski emphasizes that in attributing an event to design, he is not characterizing it as a product of intelligence. For he defines “design” to mean “neither regularity nor chance,” that is to say, if something is not explicable in terms of natural law or chance, then by definition it is due to “design.” To say that something is due to “design” is just to say that it exhibits a certain kind of pattern. Nevertheless, Dembski thinks that proving that something is due to neither regularity nor chance is the logical prerequisite for proving that it is due to intelligence. He makes the move from “design” to a bona fide designer or intelligent agent by means of a threestep schema of actualizationexclusionspecification; that is to say, one finds that a certain possibility has been actualized (and therefore presumably requires a cause), one excludes accounts of the event based on natural law explanations (thereby showing that the event is physically contingent), and finally one specifies that contingency so as to show that it conforms to an independently given pattern (thereby distinguishing choice from mere chance as the cause of the event). Since the hallmark of intelligent agency is choice, one has thus shown that the best explanation for the occurrence of the event is an intelligent agent. Obviously, this threestep schema simply retraces the steps of Dembski’s design inference, so that it turns out that one is getting to genuine design (a previsioned product of intelligent agency) after all. Thus, if the initial conditions of the universe are due to “design,” as argued above, then the inference to a Cosmic Designer is warranted.
 
If you graph a model of our understanding of evolutionary processes and then add in the time ascribed from the first life on Earth, with rather fair variables, then you get nowhere near what we have now. So, something is missing in understanding, whatever it might be.
That depends on how good your model is. Does the model include the effects of natural selection? I did a simple calculation myself, which gave 6.35e130 years, far longer than the age of the universe, to evolve a 100 amino acid protein but when the effect of natural selection is included in the calculation the time expected drops to 2.1 million years, well within the lifetime of the earth. See The Evolution of Boojumase for details of the calculation.

Until we see the details of your calculation and the assumptions made then your claims are not convincing.
 
Dembski emphasizes that in attributing an event to design, he is not characterizing it as a product of intelligence. For he defines “design” to mean “neither regularity nor chance,” that is to say, if something is not explicable in terms of natural law or chance, then by definition it is due to “design.”
This is where Dr Dembski makes an error. In science the default answer is “we do not know”. Design, however defined, cannot win by default. There has to be positive evidence in its favour. Archaeologists can positively recognise design in a shaped rock. They do not assume design in any rock they cannot positively attribute to chance or law.

Dembski allows three outcomes when there are actually four possible outcomes.

There is also the possibility of the options being simultaneously true. Evolution is a mixture of both chance and law. If you include artificial selection then it is a mixture of chance, law and design.

It is an interesting and instructive exercise to apply Dembski’s Explanatory Filter to the Abrahamic God.
 
You need a better argument here.
No, the argument is solid. The reality of light, gravity and mass are not in the same category as the reality of macroevolution. Therefore, the poster’s claim that denying the fact of macroveolution is the same as denying light, gravity and mass is refuted
We can observe part of evolution; a child is not identical to its parents.
? Is the child a different species to its parents? You will need a better example.
That is observable variation in the population and so part of evolution.
? More microevolution. Microevolution is not disputed.
You are in effect saying that science cannot work beyond the narrow limits of unassisted human senses.
No, I am saying observations that require sophisticated equipment and training become more interpretative than factual, that is, the impression of the observer controls. Radiologist and pathologist reports are good examples of the proper presentation, i.e., impressions, of machine generated evidence.

And, specifically to the poster who claimed speciation as a fact, I note that there is no observation by common senses or sophisticated equipment that support the claim of macroevolution as fact.
 
False dichotomy. Have you never read Monod “Chance and Necessity”? Dr. Dembski recognises three options in his Explanatory Filter: Law, Chance, Design.
As I wrote, there’s hope, but not yet faith.
 
No, the argument is solid. The reality of light, gravity and mass are not in the same category as the reality of macroevolution. Therefore, the poster’s claim that denying the fact of macroveolution is the same as denying light, gravity and mass is refuted
This makes no sense to me. They are the same. I can see light, but I don’t know from simple observation what light is made of, how it is created, and what laws govern it. I can see the variation in species, but I don’t know from simple observation why the species vary, where they come from, or what laws govern that variation. Both are explained with theories, that are tested experimentally. It is exactly the same thing.

The science behind evolution is not so different in methodology than the science behind physics. Its bizarre to me that people who are happy to accept quantum theory for some reason balk at evolution. I assume its because someone (wrongly) told them that evolution somehow against God, because there is no scientific basis for it.
 
Yeah, evolution could support the existence of a God. But no one knows how. The idea of God can not be proven or disproven. A cataclysmic event would happen that would devastate humanity so much with so much supernatural events, would possibly lead many to God, or God simply shows himself. God showed himself 5 times, then after generations, they forgot.
 
No, the argument is solid. The reality of light, gravity and mass are not in the same category as the reality of macroevolution.
So, you place electrons in the same category as mecroevolution. You place radio waves in the same category as macroevolution. You place the planet Neptune in the same category as mecroevolution. What a small and scientifically lacking world you live in.
Is the child a different species to its parents? You will need a better example.
I was giving an example of easily observable microevolution. I did not claim macroevolution for that example.
And, specifically to the poster who claimed speciation as a fact, I note that there is no observation by common senses or sophisticated equipment that support the claim of macroevolution as fact.
We have had observations of speciation since 1905. You are over 100 years behind in your scientific knowledge.
Have you ever seen speciation? If not, then they are not the same.
Have you ever seen a proton? You are denying the existence of all sub-atomic particles here. You will find it very difficult to convince anyone with even a little scientific knowledge of your position.

How do you explain the way your computer works if you cannot see an electron?
 
Have you ever seen speciation? If not, then they are not the same.
Yes. We all see speciation every day. I can look out my window and see the many different species without getting out of my chair. Have you ever seen gravity?
 
@o_mlly, can you tell me if there are other scientific theories that you reject based on Scripture? If not, why? It seems to me that a strict literalist interpretation of Scripture would lead to disagreeing with many aspects of science, not just evolution.
 
Until we see the details of your calculation and the assumptions made then your claims are not convincing.
The context of what I was saying was in trying to phrase what another user was getting at (which required a little guesswork) in a different manner, and that was what I was assuming he was speaking of.
If you do not think it is a credible problem then that’s something…but if it is a credible problem then it can lead to more discovery and study! Of course there are various factors that may not be adequately modeled in various models, since they’re models and not real life.
But, for instance (from a pro- perspective with a short discussion of attempted solutions), The waiting time problem in a model hominin population | Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling | Full Text
 
So, you place electrons in the same category as mecroevolution.
Strawman.
I did not claim macroevolution for that example.
Then why cite as an example that which is not disputed? The issue is speciation, aka, macroevolution.
We have had observations of speciation since 1905. You are over 100 years behind in your scientific knowledge.
The ad hominem is a sign that one’s opponent has no further arguments. The issue under discussion is the philosophy of science, specifically macroevolution science.
Have you ever seen a proton? You are denying the existence of all sub-atomic particles here.
Strawman. That’s twice in the same post.

Let’s summarize: 2 strawmen + 1 ad hominem = 3 fallacies. Isn’t that a “you’re out” in baseball?
Me personally? No. Others? See:
If there is something relevant in your reference, kindly cite the sentences that are applicable.
Yes. We all see speciation every day. I can look out my window and see the many different species without getting out of my chair. Have you ever seen gravity?
Seeing what you want to see? Species are not discovered but imposed on a collection of beings by a thinking mind.
@o_mlly, can you tell me if there are other scientific theories that you reject based on Scripture?
Joining the strawmen club? Unload your question if you want a reply.
 
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If there is something relevant in your reference, kindly cite the sentences that are applicable.
Absolutely not. You said it, I provided a reference, you can read it or ignore it, but you can’t set the goalposts to galloping.
 
The ad hominem is a sign
I don’t think that was an ad hominem. If it had said that you were intellectually inferior or kicked puppies for fun then that would definitely be ad hominem. What was said was that your information is out of date, not that you are personally lacking.
 
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