Welcome to science. Possibilities are all you will get in science; if you want absolute truths then you are in the wrong place. Every scientific measurement comes with error bars. Every scientific theory is provisional. Science studies the material world, and since we do not know everything there is to know about the material world we can never be sure that we have the final answer. All we have is the best answer we have so far.
…according to which, evolution should not then be considered a fact! Unless as a a scientismic article of faith, perhaps…
If you want to calculate a probability then you will need a model. We know that there are at least six billion different ways to make a human being; there are a lot more ways than that if you think about it carefully. There are also billions of ways to make an amoeba. Between any one amoeba and any one human being there are a multitude of possible pathways. You have billions of possible starting points, billions of possible end points and billions of possible pathways. You do the calculation; what is the chance of any one of those billions of billions of billions of possibilities happening?
Each possibility is mindbogglingly unlikely, I should think. I’m guessing, from your argument, you understand that vast quantities of individual improbabilities do not accumulate into anything you could point at and describe as ‘likely’. At least not from how I understand maths to work…
No, both neutral and beneficial mutations continue life. You need to learn more about genetics.
:crutches: ooh, ooh, I’ll have to go to the back and write 30 lines, sent by the great professor… OK, you big pedant you, ‘if the beneficial mutations are those that drive evolution’
Big fish eat little fish. Size can be an advantage. Is it easier to kill a rabbit or an elephant?
Depends on how. If you are a fox, the rabbit. If you are a lightening bolt, the Elephant. If you are a famine, still the Elephant. In a casual reworking of maths ignoring the multitude of other factors involved in this process (and remember, kiddies, the whole scenario of an environment for life being able to spring into life in the first place, assuming that’s actually possible, should also be factored into this), the rabbit wins, and the amoeba probably does better than either. THE AMOEBA IS THE HEIGHT OF EVOLUTION!
Why this obsession with “pure chance”. Natural selection is not a chance process, it is an effect of the number of fertile offspring you have - loosely the number of grandchildren. Two eagle chicks hatch. One chick has a mutation that renders it blind, the other chick has normal eyesight. On average, which chick is going to have more descendants? Do you think that the result is “pure chance”? You are criticising a strawman here.
Do you really think that it is immensely unlikely that the blind chick will have fewer offspring than the sighted chick? Strange.
rossum
You are talking of something like a vast and elaborate domino display being set up - by accident. I am criticising a relentlessly celebrated strawman hiding being a deluded excuse for science as if it were a ‘fact’, here.
I think I’ve said before - survival is not ‘evolution’. Does complexity produce greater survival chances? Not necessarily.
Is an ape that naturally stands upright more likely to survive a lightning bolt than one that walks on all fours? You’re inventing Sci-fi scenarios, excuses for the why what and wheres to justify your belief in the (un)holy dogmas of Darwin.
All this is irrelevant as to whether organic acid would eventually give birth to intelligent life