I think this goes even deeper to the fact that the demographics of France has changed so radically and rapidly in the past twenty years that France does not know how to lift itself from this downward spiral. But there is hope…if the French are willing to look inward to their Catholic roots, in my opinion. Stop aborting babies and get back to turning to God for help. And it all begins with a single prayer multiplied over and over.
According to one researcher at the Population Research Institute
*According to the United Nations Population Division (UNDP), the proportion of Frenchmen over 60 (retirement age) will go from 21% today to 33% in 2050. That means more than a 50% jump in the already enormous and deficit-provoking cost of taking care of French retirees. At the same time, those just entering or about to enter the workforce (those aged 15-24) will decline from 12.7% of the population to 11% – even with all the Muslim immigrants. France’s birthrate is about 1.8 children per woman, below the replacement rate of 2.1. Subtracting the fecundity of immigrants, France’s birthrate would be only around 1.2, the same as in Italy and Spain.
Of course, much could be done to improve the stability of the French social system. The retirement age could be raised to 70. Welfare for the able-bodied could be cut. Health care could be privatized while maintaining universal coverage through government subsidies. Vacation time could be reduced. And more taxpayers could be created by decreasing the 25% youth unemployment rate, thus lessening the French debt load now so that more money can be borrowed later when it’s really needed.
But far from preparing for the coming crunch, the French government can’t even loosen up the labor market just a little. Even American federal bureaucrats don’t get tenure until three years into the job. And public debt in France has been on the steady increase for years, rather than decreasing during these relatively fat years in anticipation of lean ones (sound familiar?). The New York Times reported March 28, “‘It is a collective failure of the French system,’ said Louis Chauvel, a sociologist who studies generational change. ‘You earn more doing nothing in retirement at the age of 60 to 65 than working full-time at the age of 35. And we have organized society so there is no room for new entrants.’”
France will need lots of new entrants soon. Immigrants aren’t working out. Instead, they proclaim their hatred for their adoptive country.
There is another solution: The French could start having lots of children, who would then enter the workforce in 20 years or so – about when the big crunch will come.
It’s that, or the end of the French’s beloved social model. You can’t live on borrowed time forever. It’s not sustainable*.
Mr. D’Agostino, former associate editor of HUMAN EVENTS, is vice president for Communications at the Population Research Institute
