C
CathPhilosopher
Guest
The “law of large numbers” in its formal sense doesn’t have much to do with that example. Any creationist worth his salt (though they may be few in number) would respond that there’s nothing particular special about that sequence, and so there is no reason to posit either a human trick or a divine miracle to produce it.One of the mistakes Creationists make is using ‘odds’ that seem to be ‘impossible’ to try to back up their ideas. They are simply not familiar with the law of large numbers. Try this. Hold out a deck of cards to a Creationist and have them draw fifteen of them. Then ask which were drawn and in which order. You can then, with all truth and seriousness, tell them that the odds of them drawing that particular sequence are trillions to one against, and so they must not have drawn them- God must have created them in their hand.
The usual problem with such probability calculations is that they assume that everything has to be done at once, and therefore each element of the probability calculation is independent, and they can simply be multiplied together. For anything that could be the result of a process of replication with changes, the elements are not independent. That is one major problem with Dembski’s argument (link is to a post giving a partial critique of it).