What has been shown is that when voters have been given the opportunity to vote for or against redefining marriage it has always went the way of keeping marriage as it is defined today. We are not talking about conservative states, which it can easily be understood, but liberal states! CA is probably the most liberal state in the union and yet when voters got a chance to express their view in the ballot box after a year of being inundated with the debate they chose to keep it the way it is.
My opinion is this: You have probably 10-15% of the population that is for gay marriage after they have spent time thinking about it. Another 30-40% of the population that is against gay marriage after spending time thinking about it. The rest of the population hasn’t spent anytime whatsoever thinking about what gay marriage means. But in the states that this group of people in the middle have been force to think about it. It has gone to keeping marriage the way it is.
My opinion is this. The biggest dread for gay marriage advocates should be if this prop8 apeal apeal gets to the Supreme Court. If it does there is a big chance that they will loose and in my opinion not just by the 5-4 vote but rather by a 6-3 or 7-2 decision. Alot of people haven’t thought about the two women that have become members of the Supreme court recently. They are going to be the x-factor in this whether or not this is a blowout. These two women where nominated by Pres Obama who is for gay rights but against gay marriage. I think that he nominated these women because they have the same world view that he does. Are they liberal yes. But there are many liberal people who are for gay rights but against gay marriage. And some of the comments I have heard from these women are starting to make me believe that they will vote against gay marriage if given the opportunity.
Ill try to stay out of the religious/moral debate, as the only question that interests me is
why this applies to the legal status of gay marriage. There is a reason none of this discussion was brought up in the Prop 8 case, and that is because the court could care less if someone thinks it is “moral relativism”. Prop 8 is the biggest test yet, and they avoid this line of thinking like plague ridden corpse. Do you ever wonder why?
As to some of your other points: California is NOT a liberal state. It is no Wyoming (or Louisiana for that matter), but there is a VERY large conservative and military population. San Diego and Orange County being two of the larger concentrations, with of course the San Francisco and Berkley areas to balance. I would call CA a moderate state with some large populations on both the far left and far right. (I live in CA for last 15 years) And it was a very tight vote on Prop 8 BTW, a percent or two within 50-50.
Also, I was born and raised in Iowa, where gay marriage is law. Is that a liberal state too?
For your 10-15% support argument. Well, its just wrong, I don’t know what else to say. CA is as close to 50-50 as you can get. Some states are swing more towards yes, others towards no. If you are somehow diluting yourself into thinking that only 10-15% of the population (roughly speaking) would support gay marriage, you really are in a dream world. Doesnt make it right or wrong, but the US as a whole is much closer to 50-50 in any legit poll you wish to use. I agree, we are likely still below the 50% threshold. Have you looked at the stats on the populations opinion on gay rights (gay marriage included)? If you look at the age trend, it is staggering. It is almost a straight line. If you graphed age on the bottom, and support for hetero only marriage on the sides, it is almost a straight line, with 18 year olds with something like less than 10% support, all the way up to the 80 years and older group with over 90% support. Statistically speaking, demographics will take care of getting “over the hump” so to speak in a matter of a few years. Again, these are just the facts of US demographics at this point.
Oh, and i would not be so sure Obama does not support gay marriage. He straddled the issue, as it is the only thing he can say as a presidential candidate. It is the same thing I would say, or at least advise him to say as well! If 50-60% of the population is going to get up in arms for showing support, he is better off giving a non-answer. Doubly so for an issue the president does not really have any control over. (Not an Obama supporter BTW, just reality as I see it)