Global predictions for 2006

[rlg94086]

news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4553604.stm

Any comments? Any global prognostications from our forum regulars?

**…It will take a disturbingly long time for a new government to be created in Iraq. **

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41151000/jpg/_41151018_iraqgettyok.jpg How long for a new government to be formed in Iraq?

As a result, as happened after January 2005, the insurgency will continue unabated, and pressure will grow in the United States for a pull-out of American forces. ***As November’s mid-term elections approach in the US, greater efforts will be made to bring home significant numbers of troops. ***This will merely show the insurgent leaders that they are on the right track, so there will be little incentive to ease the campaign of killing and bombing. Of all the predictions made for 2006, the safest is that thousands more entirely innocent people will be caught up in the violence.

I think Simpson’s wrong on this one. We will decrease our troop numbers, but I would argue about the size being “significant”. I think we will decrease numbers based on the ability of Iraqi forces to take over control.

Simpson is correct on the outcome if “significant” numbers of troops come home, which is why I think he is wrong about our future actions…the current administration is aware of the dangers of an early pullout.

Robert

PS other posts are not limited to the one excerpt I just made…feel free to predict, disagree, etc. As Simpson says it’s a “party game”.

 

[MikeWM]

John Simpson is a very wise man - so wise, he knows that his own predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt

Mike

 

[rlg94086]

MikeWM:

John Simpson is a very wise man - so wise, he knows that his own predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt

Mike

Only because he’s been wrong too many times in the past .

Care to put your foot forward with predictions? (just don’t wear new trainers, because you don’t know what you might step in)

 

[MikeWM]

rlg94086:

Only because he’s been wrong too many times in the past .

Care to put your foot forward with predictions? (just don’t wear new trainers, because you don’t know what you might step in)

Not right now, thanks As Mr Simpson says:

Whether it is any more or less likely to happen than the other things I have listed will depend on a random series of chance events which are impossible to forecast.

I don’t like those odds

Mike

 

[rlg94086]

MikeWM:

I don’t like those odds

Mike

Chicken!

Weathermen make incorrect forecasts all the time!

Just to show I fear no embarrassment over forecasting errors…

I predict continued control of Congress by the Republicans in the mid-term elections, but their percentages in both the House and Senate will decrease.

 

[gilliam]

My predictions:

1. Within the month there will be major alliances made within the political parties in Iraq so that they will be able to form a government. Sunnis will play a role.
2. Troop withdrawls will start in the Spring or Summer as more Iraqi forces come on-line. However it will not be a panacea
3. More and more Iraqi police and army will be targeted by al-Qaeda and the Baathists who won’t quit.
4. More civilians will be caught in the cross-fire, however the numbers will be down from the past.
5. Iraq will be asked to pay for more of the bill for reconstruction. This will be for 3 reasons: one-the US public is tired of putting the billl, two-- that was the plan from the beginning, three–they will become less of a target because they are Iraqi projects not US projects.

 

[Maranatha]

Here’s my prediction.

Societies that move closer tot he natural law will prosper. Societies that move further away form the natural law will suffer.

 

[Ani_Ibi]

1. CAFTA will come into effect. Chavez will precipitate one of a series of showdowns with the US.
2. Iran will trigger a nuclear showdown.
3. The Khadr kid will be extradited to the US – or not. Either way it will trigger a kefuffle between Canada and the US.
4. The loss of more and more aid money to the tsunami district will become the crise du jour.
5. It’s about time someone captured OBL.
6. Charges will be laid against those who leaked secret info in the US. This will spark nation-wide demonstrations.
7. Part 2 of the Gomery Report will start the unravelling of the Liberal Party back to the Stone Age. Quebec will begin the process of secession.