Global Warming?

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  1. Where’s the heat:
    The point is that the premises of comparable arguments need to be symmetrical–not identical. If you claim that somthing exists–but is not, visible, measurable, or quantifiable in any way–it is an assertion. That’s all the argument say’s.
Nonsense. We know how much Arctic ice has melted, because we have satellite photos – and since 2011, we have a radar scan in 3D. Calculating the amount of energy that required is high school physics. Question: where did that energy come from?
  1. The point of the “sink”, in the argument is to hide the heat: to make it unmeasurable by any observer–with, or without, a stake in the outcome. That makes it no more than an assertion, too.
Again, nonsense. “Source” and “sink” are technical terms with precise definitions. Source is where something (here: energy) enters the system (here: atmosphere), and sink is where it leaves the system. Energy cannot be “hidden”, because it is indestructible, and conservation laws hold.

If energy (name removed by moderator)ut to the atmosphere increases, and its temperature does not, then it means that the excess energy is going from atmosphere somewhere else – i.e. there is an energy sink. As it happens, at the same time we observe melting of Arctic ice – which requires (name removed by moderator)ut of energy. So we have energy which is missing from atmosphere, and energy which is melting Arctic ice – which must come from somewhere. There’s very good chance it’s the same energy.

To use an analogy: if $100 suddenly disappears from your wallet, and at the same moment $100 appears in your neighbor’s wallet, then it’s a very good chance that it’s the same $100, no?
 
Nonsense. We know how much Arctic ice has melted, because we have satellite photos – and since 2011, we have a radar scan in 3D. Calculating the amount of energy that required is high school physics. Question: where did that energy come from?

Again, nonsense. “Source” and “sink” are technical terms with precise definitions. Source is where something (here: energy) enters the system (here: atmosphere), and sink is where it leaves the system. Energy cannot be “hidden”, because it is indestructible, and conservation laws hold.

If energy (name removed by moderator)ut to the atmosphere increases, and its temperature does not, then it means that the excess energy is going from atmosphere somewhere else – i.e. there is an energy sink. As it happens, at the same time we observe melting of Arctic ice – which requires (name removed by moderator)ut of energy. So we have energy which is missing from atmosphere, and energy which is melting Arctic ice – which must come from somewhere. There’s very good chance it’s the same energy.

To use an analogy: if $100 suddenly disappears from your wallet, and at the same moment $100 appears in your neighbor’s wallet, then it’s a very good chance that it’s the same $100, no?
This is what you wrote, and I responded to it:
AFAIK there are currently two solutions being proposed to the lack of warming problem:
(1) the temperature is increasing fastest in the polar regions where we have no measurements, so the mean temperature is actually going up, we just don’t see that
(2) melting ice increases ocean’s capability to sink energy – therefore, we have increased energy (name removed by moderator)ut (increased CO2 feedback) without the growth in temperature – essentially the temperature will keep constant until all of the Arctic melts
The elephant in the room is that Earth’s heat content must increase with increased CO2 – that much follows from basic physical properties of CO2.
These are assertions in response to the criticism that there is no discernible global warming. Why, because, you say, we are not looking in the right place. It’s there, we just don’t know where to see it, or, maybe we don’t have the mechanical means to see it. But, no matter what, it’s there!!!

But, those are assertions. They assume–their premise is–that there is, in fact, global warming. But, global warming is exactly what is questioned–whether it’s natural or man made doesn’t matter: global warming, itself, is questioned.

The con argument is that the earth is actually cooling, not warming–and, the temperature data exists that provides credence to that argument. You do not have temperature data to prove that global warming exists, consequently you argue for a “sink”, and go into a diatribe of scientific jargon–in other words, baffle them with B.S. because I don’t have real data to prove what I’m saying.

Let me put this another way: If there is global warming, and not cooling, youassume the argument(s) that are used to argue global warming does not exist other than as a normal planetary development, and demonstrate how your global warming arguments disprove those arguments. Don’t merely make claims from on high. Show a little real confidence in what you believe, take your critics seriously, and actually discuss the issues.

To make this even more simple, ask yourself what proof(s) would demonstrate that Global Warming does not exist, and disprove them.
 
AFAIK there are currently two solutions being proposed to the lack of warming problem:
The problem is that neither “solution” follows the science on which GHG warming is based.
(1) the temperature is increasing fastest in the polar regions where we have no measurements, so the mean temperature is actually going up, we just don’t see that
It is not enough that mean temperatures go up, they have to go up in accordance with the theory and the theory proclaims that we must see the greatest warming in the troposphere above the tropics. If it goes up somewhere else then its cause cannot be greenhouse gases.
(2) melting ice increases ocean’s capability to sink energy – therefore, we have increased energy (name removed by moderator)ut (increased CO2 feedback) without the growth in temperature – essentially the temperature will keep constant until all of the Arctic melts
This suffers from the same problem as solution one: it is not what the theory predicts.
The elephant in the room is that Earth’s heat content must increase with increased CO2 – that much follows from basic physical properties of CO2.
This is false. Your conclusion is based on the assumption that nothing changes with the additional CO2 other than additional absorption of IR energy when in fact the great question - which no one is able to answer - is: what else happens? Even though no one knows what really happens it is quite clear that other things are going on … otherwise the Earth would never have cooled down from earlier periods when CO2 concentrations were much higher. Your assertion, if true, would mean the Earth could only get warmer, but since that is clearly not what has happened there is every reason to suspect your claim is not true. (I think your elephant is a pink one.)

Ender
 
(*) For example, the Permian-Triassic event is now believed to have been caused by rapid increase in CO2 due to massive volcanic eruptions and forest fires.
It may be believed by you but the scientists actually studying the event don’t make any such claim. It may well be one proposed scenario but to say this theory “is now believed” is extremely unlikely. Nor is the contribution from forest fires likely to have contributed much, at least not alongside the “volcanic eruptions” - which were actually plume events (of which there have been eight in the last 250 million years) and that constituted *“the largest known, most intense eruptions in the history of the Earth.” *And they lasted at full intensity for about a million years.

Here is another possible consequence of such a catastrophic event:The tremendous amount of sulfate aerosols would cool the climate enough to form ice-caps, rather quickly, and this in turn would cause a rather rapid drop in sea level along with global cooling, early in the eruptive sequence.
There is acknowledgment of the possibility of global warming:*It is possible, but not calculated yet, that the volcanic gases that had built up during the eruption could have had a greenhouse effect for some time after the eruption ended, taking the earth from a volcanic glaciation to a volcanic hothouse. *
The document I’ve been citing appears to have been written in 2001 and it is reasonable to believe that additional investigation has led to more precise estimates of what caused the P-T extinction but I seriously doubt there is any justification in implying that there is anything like a consensus.
Add to this scenario the “usual” effects of a giant eruption, such as acid rain, ozone depletion, a massive dose of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, or any combination of the above, and the ingredients are in place for a mass extinction.
Ender
 
These are assertions in response to the criticism that there is no discernible global warming. Why, because, you say, we are not looking in the right place. It’s there, we just don’t know where to see it, or, maybe we don’t have the mechanical means to see it. But, no matter what, it’s there!!!

But, those are assertions. They assume–their premise is–that there is, in fact, global warming. But, global warming is exactly what is questioned–whether it’s natural or man made doesn’t matter: global warming, itself, is questioned.

The con argument is that the earth is actually cooling, not warming–and, the temperature data exists that provides credence to that argument. You do not have temperature data to prove that global warming exists, consequently you argue for a “sink”, and go into a diatribe of scientific jargon–in other words, baffle them with B.S. because I don’t have real data to prove what I’m saying.

Let me put this another way: If there is global warming, and not cooling, youassume the argument(s) that are used to argue global warming does not exist other than as a normal planetary development, and demonstrate how your global warming arguments disprove those arguments. Don’t merely make claims from on high. Show a little real confidence in what you believe, take your critics seriously, and actually discuss the issues.

To make this even more simple, ask yourself what proof(s) would demonstrate that Global Warming does not exist, and disprove them.
I think you have too narrow an interpretation of what global warming means, thus your exclusive focus on atmospheric temperatures that are observed in the habitable parts of the globe. The term “global warming” was necessarily an oversimplification to convey a concept that the layperson could understand - a concept that many have come now to call “climate change”. This does not represent “moving the goalposts” to avoid being wrong, as some have claimed. It represents an evolving clarification of a concept that was not explained well enough to being with.

It is incorrect when you say “You do not have temperature data to prove that global warming exists, consequently you argue for a “sink”, and go into a diatribe of scientific jargon”. The existence of melting ice as a sink for heat is not an assumption made to salvage global warming theory. It is an observable fact. We don’t have to guess how much ice is melting. We have satellite images that show the ice is melting. This evidence is every bit as basic as thermometer readings to prove where heat energy is going. You seem quite willing to accept thermometer readings as fundamental, but of satellite measurements of ice coverage you are not so sure. What is the source of your distrust of these images and their implications regarding heat transfer? This is not “scientific jargon” as you say. It is high school physics.
 
That can be, but then you’d have to propose an alternative theory which explains what caused warming until 2000.
Every theory stands or falls on its own merits and there is no reason one must propose a better theory in order to claim that an existing one is wrong. I don’t need to understand the nature of electricity to reject the suggestion that lightening bolts are sparks from Thor’s hammer. I don’t need to provide the correct theory about the climate in order to point out the problems in someone else’s theory.

Ender
 
The problem is that neither “solution” follows the science on which GHG warming is based.
Throw one ton of ice into a greenhouse. What will happen to the ice and the temperature in the green house? Does that mean the greenhouse does not work?
It is not enough that mean temperatures go up, they have to go up in accordance with the theory and the theory proclaims that we must see the greatest warming in the troposphere above the tropics.
Incorrect. The theory predicts that the greatest increase will be at the poles. Arrhenius realized that back in 1898 (!). Reason: black body radiation.
If it goes up somewhere else then its cause cannot be greenhouse gases.
So what else? It’s definitely not the Sun, because we can measure that.
Your conclusion is based on the assumption that nothing changes with the additional CO2 other than additional absorption of IR energy when in fact the great question - which no one is able to answer - is: what else happens?
Well, if you don’t know what can happen with increased CO2 doesn’t that mean that you shouldn’t increase CO2? You know, cows could stop giving milk at 450ppm or something.
 
Throw one ton of ice into a greenhouse. What will happen to the ice and the temperature in the green house? Does that mean the greenhouse does not work?
This analogy doesn’t address the issue. Suppose you have a wood stove in your house. Heating will occur by radiation and convection so what should happen in a room in another part of the house where the door is closed? Neither radiation nor convection can warm it so if that room is warm it cannot be because of the stove; something else is at work. The GHG theory predicts warming in the troposphere and if that is not happening then melting at the poles cannot be due to greenhouse gases.
Incorrect. The theory predicts that the greatest increase will be at the poles. Arrhenius realized that back in 1898 (!). Reason: black body radiation.
Did you not understand the IPCC chart I posted (#350)? It shows the greatest amount of GHG warming in the troposphere above the tropics, although it does also include a warm spot over the North Polar region. Your understanding of the theory is not supported by the IPCC.
Well, if you don’t know what can happen with increased CO2 doesn’t that mean that you shouldn’t increase CO2? You know, cows could stop giving milk at 450ppm or something.
If you want to argue that we should end the burning of hydrocarbons because cows could stop giving milk at 450ppm or something then make that argument. I’m just responding to the arguments being made, and those arguments are not well supported by actual events.

Ender
 
:doh2: “Why didn’t I think of that…??” – Well known Climate Scientist

Of course…once we can control the Sun we can install a thermostat and set our climate at the most ideal…climate. Now what would that be…??? 🤷

By the way, here is some really good climate reading…
 
Who would have thought… I mean I have posted that graph three times already I think, so you must be bored with it – so here’s another one:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/cooling_1975_2008.gif

Hey! We have a third possible explanation for lack of warming after 2000: solar irradiance is declining! But wait, if solar irradiance is declining and temperatures stay the same, what will happen when it starts increasing… :eek:
 
Did you not understand the IPCC chart I posted (#350)? It shows the greatest amount of GHG warming in the troposphere above the tropics, although it does also include a warm spot over the North Polar region. Your understanding of the theory is not supported by the IPCC.
The warm spot above the tropics is at 8-12 km altitude. The warm spot above the North Pole is directly over ground. Which means that the warm spot above the tropics will not be observed by surface temperature stations.

The warm spot over the North Pole, on the other hand, is exactly what you need for melting the north polar ice cap, right?
If you want to argue that we should end the burning of hydrocarbons because cows could stop giving milk at 450ppm or something then make that argument. I’m just responding to the arguments being made, and those arguments are not well supported by actual events.
You’re essentially arguing that we should not limit CO2 because we don’t understand all effects of CO2. I’m saying that that if we don’t understand how something works, we shouldn’t dump it carelessly into environment (pesticides and colony collapse disorder being the lastest example). So you really cannot make that argument from a policy perspective.
 
Of course…once we can control the Sun we can install a thermostat and set our climate at the most ideal…climate. Now what would that be…???
That would be called geoengineering. Not by controlling the Sun of course, but by controlling how much solar energy gets to lower atmosphere:


If you think current debate on global warming is heated (pun intended), wait until increasing temperatures force us to consider geoengineering as a solution.
The HadGEM2 simulations suggest that the SO2 injection
rates considered here could defer a given amount of global-
mean warming under the A1B scenario by 30–35 years.
However, both models also indicate a rapid warming if geo-
engineering is not maintained, which raises serious issues
when considering the amount of time over which geoengi-
neering would need to be sustained.
atmos-chem-phys.net/10/5999/2010/acp-10-5999-2010.pdf
 
The warm spot above the tropics is at 8-12 km altitude. The warm spot above the North Pole is directly over ground. Which means that the warm spot above the tropics will not be observed by surface temperature stations.
True … that’s why they use satellites to make those observations.
The warm spot over the North Pole, on the other hand, is exactly what you need for melting the north polar ice cap, right?
Yes it is, but the theory that predicts warming over the north pole also predicts even greater warming in the troposphere and the point is this: if the predicted warming in the troposphere is not happening why should we believe it is happening over the pole? If the climate is not responding according to theoretical projections surely that suggests a serious problem with the theory.
You’re essentially arguing that we should not limit CO2 because we don’t understand all effects of CO2.
I don’t “essentially” say anything. If I have a point to make I’ll make it obvious. Regarding CO2, I have made no comment on how it should be controlled and no assumption whatever can properly be made from what I haven’t said.
So you really cannot make that argument from a policy perspective.
I haven’t made “that” or any other argument. I have limited my comments to problems with the GHG theory, which seem manifest.

Ender
 
It is important to keep the distinction between heat and temperature clear. They are not exactly the same thing. When ice melts and becomes water, it does not change temperature. It just transitions from ice at 32 degrees to water at 32 degrees. But even though the temperature of the ice did not change, the amount of heat necessary to accomplish that much melting is equivalent to the heat it would take to raise that same amount of water by 144 degrees F. Look up “latent heat of ice” if you want more information on this fact.

Also, when people use the word “sink” in this context, this nothing to do with things going down into the depths of the ocean. The word means anything that takes rather than gives something. The opposite of a sink is a source.
Leaf,
Sorry it took so long to get back to you, but Christmas is coming, and we have grand kids, daughters and sons-in-law to get ready for. Anyway here I am.

Look, I understand what a “sink” is. I own my own–a 250 year old house that simply absorbs money and sends it into the ether. I’ve come to understand, through my 70 years, that you don’t own anything–no matter what you’ve paid for it—it owns you.

Now, back to AGW. First, I’m not sure that GW means anything that will affect our lives, other that, if true, a1or2 degree temperature will make life a little more pleasant for most of the world.

Why this and not the environmental catastrophe the AGW alarmists claim will happen? Well, in the first place, the Arctic ice pack is not melting at an unusual rate. Moreover, I have learned to understand that the proponents of an impending doom usually–no always–have a monetary reason for getting the government to agree with their insanities. And, AGW is no exception.

This is not to say that what these people claim is not a real thing. Obviously, GW is a real event: it has happened thousands of times over the course of the earth’s 4 billion year age. Of course, so is global cooling a real event. That has also happened thousands of times over the course of the earth’s life span.

So, the real question, I think, becomes not, "what is actually causing the climate change? it’s an recurring event that will eventually happen whatever I do to try to change it (I think of this as King Canute thought of what his Court told him: he had the power, as God’s anointed, to have carried out as he willed, any command he would give. Well, King Canute was a smart man, and knew that his Court was feeding him BS because they wanted him to increase their benefits. They were brown-nosing him.

So, to instruct his court in rationality, Canute, the wise, had them bring his throne to the sea side. There, he sat on his throne, and, as the tide came in, ordered it to turn back and not wet the king’s feet.

Of course, it didn’t. So, he ordered it more loudly with no result–the tide didn’t listen. Then he ordered his court to help him by joining in giving the command–after all, they were the king’s court and, together with him, had all the authority in the world.

It didn’t work. The king’s feet got wet; and he had to be pulled out of there less he be drowned.

Now, I think he should have executed the brown-noses, and installed a new, less arrogant. Court; but he didn’t. He only used it as an object lesson in humility, proving that nobility, even anointed nobility, could not control a single iota of natural law.

Now, let’s get back to AGW. Do you remember the hole in the ozone layer? It was back in the 60s or 70s. The hole was over the North Pole (there’s that NorthPole, again), and was getting progressively bigger. Well, you can only imagine how the doom and despair crew rolled out in force–claiming we were all going to be fried if we didn’t immediately stop putting the chloro-Fluoro-carbons (used in aerosol sprays, air conditioning, etc.) into the atmosphere, and close the hole–if we still could.

Turns out the “hole” happens every year over Antarctica and the Arctic–as well as other places. Of course, the alarmists are still at it–although their claims are now couched in terms like, ‘possibly’, ‘perhaps’, ‘it is thought’, but never in absolutes. They tried that in the past, and it turned out badly.

It’s the same with AGW. There is, now, no such thing as absolutes since the climate failed to perform as the AGW prognosticators definitively predicted for the 21st century. They were dead wrong, but they are trying to clean up the mess by claiming, we can’t really see the warming because the polar heat sink hides it.

Of course, for the 30 years before that, and especially during the 1990’s, it was nothing but global atmospheric temperatures that “proved” the existence of AGW.

.No, Leaf. There is no satisfactory evidence that AGW actually exists–like there is no physical that CFC’s create the Ozone hole. Furthermore, every single one of these academic alarmists have funding for their projects on the line.

You can’t trust them as far as you can throw them!

Try this site, newsbusters.org/blogs/randy-hall/2013/12/02/report-claims-typhoon-haiyan-was-strongest-storm-ever-rejected-scientist
 
Yes it is, but the theory that predicts warming over the north pole also predicts even greater warming in the troposphere and the point is this: if the predicted warming in the troposphere is not happening why should we believe it is happening over the pole?
Well because (1) we see the ice melting, and (2) stations near the pole do actually show warming (check in NASA GISS for yourself).

Also, anecdotal evidence does not count 🙂 but I had some conversations with people who live in the north of Sweden (67N) – and they said that winters are definitely getting warmer. Not to mention that where I live (50N), 30-40 years ago -30C in winter was business as usual, now we declare emergency and close schools if the temperature drops below -20C.
If the climate is not responding according to theoretical projections surely that suggests a serious problem with the theory.
If you replace “theory” with “IPCC and their models” then I’m inclined to agree. Basic theory is rock solid. IPCC and their models… not so much.
 
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