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Guest
Let me start by saying I don’t claim to have all the answers. I’m starting this thread to have a civil conversation over emotional issues. I’d like to use evidence, so please help!
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, birth rates have been declining. A good example of that is found on Wikipedia’s page on “demographic transition,” which cites Sweden’s history of birth and death rates over hundreds of years (CBR and CDR are crude birth/death rates:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/52/Demographic_change_in_Sweden_1735-2000.gif
Globally, fertility abirth rates are dropping. Even in places like Bangladesh, where CIA estimates the birth rate (per 1000 population) to be 22.53 (74th in the world), it’s been declining. In the industrial democracies of the world (with the U.S. being the exception) and former Soviet Bloc, many national birth rates have fallen below the replacement rate (that needed to maintain the population at its current size). In his book The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, Stratfor founder George Friedman asserts that this change will be the #1 driver of geopolitical change in the future. In the YouTube movie Demographic Winter, scholars (generally conservative but not entirely) predict a decline in Western civilization as a result of these trends.
Obviously, abortion and contraception figure in, but the decline in birth rates predates Roe v. Wade, the Sexual Revolution, and other culture war issues. Condom manufacturing was revolutionized around 1930, when the U.S. Army made them standard issue (reversing the trend of high incidence of STD infection during overseas deployments such as the Spanish-American War). General Pershing in WW 1 retained a urology consultant to address the issue.
Today, control of fertility is central to women’s lives and modern society. Women have children if/when they want, based on complex decisions of career, age, economics, and religion. Children reported “unwanted” by their mothers get fewer resources and less attention from their mothers. In countries where abortion is illegal, unsuccessful abortion is associated with higher rates of depression. Rates of parental murder of children declined after Roe v. Wade. Yes, it’s horrific. These all suggest that women select a lifestyle with a given number of children based on economic and relationship factors, and that children beyond that desired number are not regarded as well.
Contraception and abortion both fit into this picture. Abortion has lower rates of complication than vaginal and Caesarean delivery, including depression. Condoms and “the pill” are commodity goods, just as other lifestyle products. Controlling fertility is relatively cheap and easy. Contraception is a “primary” insurance against pregnancy, and abortion is “secondary” insurance.
Contraceptive sabotage and pregnancy coercion are employed within abusive relationships. Women in violent relationships are less likely to employ contraceptives.
In addition to its role in perpetuating society, pregnancy plays an important role in human health, having children and breastfeeding is associated with lower risk of a number of important causes of death and disease. Women who have their first babies before their late 20s have lower risk of breast cancer than women who give birth later (and women without children). Having children younger and breastfeeding also reduces long-term cardiovascular risk in women. Men who have two or more children have lower cardiovascular disease risk.
I thought of these questions while considering the possibility that Roe v. Wade could get overturned if Romney was elected. Though he wasn’t, it seems that anyone concerned about abortion or sexuality needs to take these issues head-on. Based on these factors, and electoral realities, it seems exceptionally likely that the Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade or be more favorable toward state-level abortion regulations.
With all that in mind, how should the pro-life movement proceed?
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, birth rates have been declining. A good example of that is found on Wikipedia’s page on “demographic transition,” which cites Sweden’s history of birth and death rates over hundreds of years (CBR and CDR are crude birth/death rates:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/52/Demographic_change_in_Sweden_1735-2000.gif
Globally, fertility abirth rates are dropping. Even in places like Bangladesh, where CIA estimates the birth rate (per 1000 population) to be 22.53 (74th in the world), it’s been declining. In the industrial democracies of the world (with the U.S. being the exception) and former Soviet Bloc, many national birth rates have fallen below the replacement rate (that needed to maintain the population at its current size). In his book The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, Stratfor founder George Friedman asserts that this change will be the #1 driver of geopolitical change in the future. In the YouTube movie Demographic Winter, scholars (generally conservative but not entirely) predict a decline in Western civilization as a result of these trends.
Obviously, abortion and contraception figure in, but the decline in birth rates predates Roe v. Wade, the Sexual Revolution, and other culture war issues. Condom manufacturing was revolutionized around 1930, when the U.S. Army made them standard issue (reversing the trend of high incidence of STD infection during overseas deployments such as the Spanish-American War). General Pershing in WW 1 retained a urology consultant to address the issue.
Today, control of fertility is central to women’s lives and modern society. Women have children if/when they want, based on complex decisions of career, age, economics, and religion. Children reported “unwanted” by their mothers get fewer resources and less attention from their mothers. In countries where abortion is illegal, unsuccessful abortion is associated with higher rates of depression. Rates of parental murder of children declined after Roe v. Wade. Yes, it’s horrific. These all suggest that women select a lifestyle with a given number of children based on economic and relationship factors, and that children beyond that desired number are not regarded as well.
Contraception and abortion both fit into this picture. Abortion has lower rates of complication than vaginal and Caesarean delivery, including depression. Condoms and “the pill” are commodity goods, just as other lifestyle products. Controlling fertility is relatively cheap and easy. Contraception is a “primary” insurance against pregnancy, and abortion is “secondary” insurance.
Contraceptive sabotage and pregnancy coercion are employed within abusive relationships. Women in violent relationships are less likely to employ contraceptives.
In addition to its role in perpetuating society, pregnancy plays an important role in human health, having children and breastfeeding is associated with lower risk of a number of important causes of death and disease. Women who have their first babies before their late 20s have lower risk of breast cancer than women who give birth later (and women without children). Having children younger and breastfeeding also reduces long-term cardiovascular risk in women. Men who have two or more children have lower cardiovascular disease risk.
I thought of these questions while considering the possibility that Roe v. Wade could get overturned if Romney was elected. Though he wasn’t, it seems that anyone concerned about abortion or sexuality needs to take these issues head-on. Based on these factors, and electoral realities, it seems exceptionally likely that the Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade or be more favorable toward state-level abortion regulations.
With all that in mind, how should the pro-life movement proceed?
