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phillylawyer
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Yes. I am exactly taking this scenario into account. I am assuming that the stock you invest in drops to $0 (worst case scenario).I was going to let you have the last word, because I don’t have time to make this discussion much longer. But I really want to mention just a few comments and questions:
OK, I see what you meant now about comparing to low-risk bonds. Where I am not entirely following you is this: If I invest $50,000 in low-risk bonds or in stocks, I am putting at most $50,000 at risk. But if I have a $50,000 mortgage balance on a $100,000 home, then I am putting an asset worth $100,000 at risk. So don’t we have a mismatch in risk here, between the “pay off mortgage” scenario and any investing scenario (whether bonds or stocks)?
Furthermore, the risk of losing the home where you live, where you have made memories with your family, where you have watched your children grow up, which may be the only home your children have ever known, is an intangible good that cannot easily be quantified in a numerical risk analysis. But I think that we do have to take this intangible value of a family’s home into account somehow, and I don’t think that a purely mathematical model is likely to do so.
Are you taking into account that in the scenario where you invested in stocks instead of paying off your mortgage, it is possible that the value of your stocks could have decreased dramatically, so that if you have to sell them to pay living expenses (including your mortgage), then you could have a lot less money than you initially invested? (It is also possible that the value of your house could dramatically decrease, but I think that this is less important, because this fact comes into play only if the person or family is going to sell the house.)
You have a good point that in a financial hardship, it could conceivably become necessary for a family to sell their home. However, I am not convinced that this is quite so cut-and-dried. For one thing, in times of hardship, families can cut many expenses. But a mortgage is one expense that is difficult to cut. So without a mortgage, it may be easier for a family to cut their expenses to a manageable level (e.g., to a level that can be paid mostly from unemployment benefits), than it would be with a mortgage – especially if the mortgage is a large percentage of the family’s monthly expenses.
Also, I just don’t hear much about families with a paid-for house that are forced to sell because of a job loss or other financial hardship. Maybe this is because few people have a paid-for house. Or maybe it’s because those who do have one tend also to have substantial emergency savings. But I think it might also be because these families find it easier to figure out some way to keep their house in the event of financial hardship, precisely because they don’t have a mortgage.
I think where we are talking past each other a little bit is that, in order to compare apples to apples, I am assuming that in both scenarios the family’s net worth is the same. This means, in the mortgage vs. stock scenario, they have, for example, a $50k mortgage and $20k in liquid assets. In the bonds vs. stock scenario, they have no mortgage and $70k in liquid assets ($50k more). Therefore, even though in scenario 1, the individual has a mortgage payment to make, where he does not in scenario 2, in scenario 1 he has additional cash to make those payments. This is how the risk of losing your house is the same by investing in stocks either in scenario 1 or scenario 2.
The point is, if you have basically no cash, then it is of course riskier to invest in stocks instead off paying your mortgage earlier than it would be to invest in stocks instead of investing in bonds, if you had no mortgage. I definitely agree with you on that point. But, the reason that decision is riskier, is not because there is any financial difference between paying off a mortgage and investing in guaranteed bonds. Instead, the difference arises from the fact that if you have a mortgage in one scenario and not in another (with everything else remaining the same), your NET WORTH/liquidity and thus your ability to meet your ongoing financial obligations decreases by the value of the mortgage.
As I tried to point out (but not very well), if you invest in stock instead of bonds and you own a real property, you still put your property at risk if the stocks tank and you have no ability to pay your living expenses. So, while you are certainly right that by choosing to invest in stocks instead of paying down your mortgage, the fact that the stock is a riskier investments means that the $100k property is at risk, it is ALSO TRUE if you invest in stocks rather than bonds that you put your $100k property at risk, if you have no other assets with which to pay your bills.