How fast is the West secularizing?

[Timi_Celcer]

And when will the de-secularization begin? What will happen when there will be only 10-15 % Christians in traditional Christian countries. Are we going to be persecuted like in Roman times? Because of our abortion and “anti-gay” beliefs? How will the Church tackle secularization and bring most of the former Christian populace back?

 

[Thorns]

IMO once total secularization sets in, there’s no going back.

 

[Iheartcoffee]

I do wonder if family size differences between secular and religious could change things. Often, religious and conservative people have more children. Assuming this trend continues and the religious do a good job of raising children to be aware of their Faith, demographics may tip back the other way.

 

[Trebor135]

I do wonder if family size differences between secular and religious could change things. Often, religious and conservative people have more children. Assuming this trend continues and the religious do a good job of raising children to be aware of their Faith, demographics may tip back the other way.

That came to mind for me too. See this blog post for more.

 

[SeanF1989]

Leftists and atheists think multiculturalism and secularism will promote an atheistic/secular outlook but they are wrong. I think Islam could replace Christianity either by gradual growth or by force since we are allowing just about anyone into our countries. Or there may be a Christian revival.

 

[Nacho45]

How fast is the West secularizing?

However fast “Fool Speed Ahead” is.

And when will the de-secularization begin?

When people stop being totally consumed by their own passions.

What will happen when there will be only 10-15 % Christians in traditional Christian countries.

I thought we were already at that point. At least, I assumed this based on people who take their faith seriously and are not Christian by title only.

Are we going to be persecuted like in Roman times?

Its already begun

Because of our abortion and “anti-gay” beliefs?

It isn’t “anti-gay” or “anti-abortion”. Its obedience to God, but these are the flagship topics for the militant “anti-Christians”.

How will the Church tackle secularization and bring most of the former Christian populace back?

I am not certain the Church can tackle this progression. All the Church can really do is hold fast and strong to the faith and never waiver with the truth. People will return when they realize how wrong they are and how right God is, not a moment sooner.

 

[SuperLuigi]

I don’t have the stats handy, but it’s been happening rapidly over the last decade…

Oh, so is that exciting or something?

especially because of the internet and the speed by which people can exchange information and debate such topics.

Religion has the same benefit of information technology, well, except perhaps the Amish.

Furthermore, the current young generation who are becoming agnostic/atheist now will be the ones helming positions in charge over the next few decades, and they will most likely be bringing up their own children to hold similar beliefs/non-beliefs…so it will probably continue to grow rapidly.

So we keep on hearing, but that is too simplistic. First of all, all of these secular/agnostic/atheist folks are not having kids, neither are their liberal yet religious counterparts.

Such things tend to happen when one group is so obsessed with free contraception on demand, so-called gay “marriage”, feminism, abortion ect.

It’s social conservatives who are having the kids, and without a liberal monopoly on the education system and Jews and Christians becoming secular themselves, Western secular humanism would be in dire straits.

I don’t think there will be a de-secularization. At least, not for a looooong time.
IMO, it seems that a major shift of belief and thought happens every few centuries…and an overall upheaval happens every 1-2 thousands of years, and takes hold–gathering strength and momentum because the majority become in agreement.

It’s already happening in Western Europe. They’re already catering to Islam.

I don’t think those who remain religious will be “persecuted” like in Roman times–no way!!! Everybody will just have to learn to live together with each other’s beliefs/non-beliefs as best we can.

Like bakeries and flower shops that have to serve those who are in homosexual relationships? Or the Little Sisters of the Poor paying for someone else’s contraception?

Secularists cannot insist you have same-gender marriages in your church…and in like, Christians cannot interfere with same-sex couples who want to get married at the courthouse.

Both cases are untrue.

We’ve already been living with different, varied religions. Adding a group of a-theists or humanist secularists to the mosaic is not that different.

Already begun? That’s been going for a long, long time.

 

[SuperLuigi]

And when will the de-secularization begin? What will happen when there will be only 10-15 % Christians in traditional Christian countries. Are we going to be persecuted like in Roman times? Because of our abortion and “anti-gay” beliefs? How will the Church tackle secularization and bring most of the former Christian populace back?

True Christians are not “anti-gay”. Don’t fall for the First World politically correct propaganda machine.

One can be against so-called “gay marriage” and not anti-gay. :yup:

Also, there are GLBTQ folks who disagree with so-called gay “marriage”.

 

[KEP1983]

I was just thinking about this the past few days, and I’ve thought about 2 possible scenarios that could reverse the radical sexularization of the west.

First is the idea that we could be in the “great apostasy” prophesied in 2 Thess 2:3. I don’t see any other time in history that has had such a radical rapid loss of faith. There are also private revelations that seem to point towards this. St Faustina was told “I bear a special love for Poland. . . from her [Poland] will come forth the spark that will prepare the world for My final coming.” (Notebook VI 1732).

So we may just be witnessing the final apostasy before Christ’s return.

But if we assume that’s not true, and we’re not really in the end times, we could either become an oppressed or ridiculed minority or there could be a revival. Someone above posted that we’ll just be another small group among other small groups and not be oppressed; but judging from history, every nation that has gone full-blown secular and atheistic has been very violent towards religion. As Jesus said, the world will hate us, just as it hated Him.

So the other option is a revival. But how could that POSSIBLY happen?

I remember Peter Kreeft discussing how evil has a tendency to destroy itself. If you’ve watched the documentary “Demographic Winter” or seen Michael Voris’s newest “Dispatches: Contraception Demographics,” you’ll see that the future for the west and other industrialized nations is looking bleak.

At the current birth rates, the demographic pyramid is going to be radically turned upside-down in just a few decades. When your country only has a fertility rate of 1.4 or 1.8; there simply aren’t enough working people to support the retirees. So as the sexularists who embraced the sexual revolution begin to retire, there won’t be any young people paying into the system to support them. On average it takes approximately 20 working employees to support 1 retired person. Because of low fertility rates, the ratio will be dropping FAR below 20:1. Japan is going to have a 1:1 worker to retired ratio by 2050. Western Europe will have a similar problem-- not dropping to the 1:1 ratio, but still FAR below the 20:1 ratio. The loss of population percentage in Europe will be greater than that experienced during the Bubonic Plague, which destroyed Europe’s economy for centuries. China will have an even worse problem, since they not only put in a one child policy, but also killed off all their girls, leaving only boys who can’t reproduce with each other. Even the USA will have a huge problem with the retired:working age population, since the baby boomers are beginning to retire soon.

So when the ratio of retired to working age becomes so unnaturally skewed, the taxes on the working age will have to be radically raised in order to pay for their parents and grandparents. The level of taxes needed to sustain such a system will make France and Sweden’s current tax rates look like nothing. It will be completely unsustainable. Such a collapse in the economy will make the Great Depression look like a tiny recession.

So the sexularization and materialism of the West will be destroyed simply by the demographics destroying the economy. Once the economy is destroyed, there is no more materialist culture left. Once materialism is gone, people may return to God. After all, all the atheist intellectuals were too blind to foresee the Demographically-induced super-Great Depression; while the Church was warning them repeatedly for over a century.

Even some of the nations that originally embraced these widespread contraception and abortion plans-- such as Germany, Sweden, Japan and Russia-- have begun recognizing this demographic problem and are trying to solve it by paying people to have children! But people STILL aren’t interested in them!!!

youtube.com/watch?v=YY6mMp_-_DU Michael Voris, “Dispatches: Contraception Demographics”
youtube.com/watch?v=lZeyYIsGdAA “Demographic Winter,” (non-Catholic documentary)

The Church defeated the Roman Empire and the Soviet Empire without putting up a fight. Sexularization may be defeated without even fighting it. It may just destroy itself; and if there is no more materialist hedonistic self-seeking economy/culture left, and people recognize that it was hedonism that destroyed everything; they may very likely return to God.

 

[weller2]

First is the idea that we could be in the “great apostasy” prophesied in 2 Thess 2:3. I don’t see any other time in history that has had such a radical rapid loss of faith. There are also private revelations that seem to point towards this. St Faustina was told “I bear a special love for Poland. . . from her [Poland] will come forth the spark that will prepare the world for My final coming.” (Notebook VI 1732).

COUNTERPOINT: Poland, under ostensibly pro-Catholic governments over the last 25 years, is currently at the forefront of demographic collapse. TFR is 1.32, which is #212 on the world (out of 224 countries surveyed).

The loss of population percentage in Europe will be greater than that experienced during the Bubonic Plague, which destroyed Europe’s economy for centuries.

COUNTERPOINT: Europe currently has high unemployment of young people (i.e. >50% of under-25s in Spain are unemployed), which means that the current population is too large for the number of jobs available. Therefore, population decrease may be actually welcome.

So when the ratio of retired to working age becomes so unnaturally skewed, the taxes on the working age will have to be radically raised in order to pay for their parents and grandparents. The level of taxes needed to sustain such a system will make France and Sweden’s current tax rates look like nothing. It will be completely unsustainable.

COUNTERPOINT: This is already happening in Poland. Since the effective tax rate is around 70% (including social security), there’s not much room to increase taxes. So the government is currently cannibalizing the reserves it has to pay for the retirees. Once it runs out of reserves, it will have to cut off the retirement money, i.e. starve off the retiring baby boomers (let’s be blunt about this). This is currently predicted to happen in the 2020-2030 time frame. After that, the excessive tax burden will be gone, and a 20 year window of opportunity to re-stabilize demography opens until people born in 1980s start retiring.

Demography WILL be re-stabilized after 2030, because the generation which will then be in power will be the same generation which will be hit by the boomer retirement crisis in 2020s, so the problem will be very well understood by everyone.

 

[KEP1983]

COUNTERPOINT: Poland, under ostensibly pro-Catholic governments over the last 25 years, is currently at the forefront of demographic collapse. TFR is 1.32, which is #212 on the world (out of 224 countries surveyed).

I would debate that there is such thing as a “pro-Catholic” government in the industrialized world today. If the fertility rate is only 1.32 that means Polish people just aren’t having sex or are practicing contraception/abortion and not following Catholic teaching. Having a culturally Catholic country doesn’t mean the country is actually practicing Catholic teaching.

COUNTERPOINT: Europe currently has high unemployment of young people (i.e. >50% of under-25s in Spain are unemployed), which means that the current population is too large for the number of jobs available. Therefore, population decrease may be actually welcome.

Sorry, but high unemployment does not mean there are too many people for the number of jobs available. There are so many variables that cause high unemployment. France, Italy,Spain etc have struggled with stagnantly high unemployment rates, even though they have very low fertility rates, which according to you should leave plenty of opportunity for the working age. The problem of high unemployment in Europe is simply the high tax burden on businesses. The USA has a consistently lower unemployment rate than Europe, even though we have both a higher fertility and higher immigration rate. According to you there should be too many people for the jobs avaiable; but what we see is businesses growing, while European businesses shrink. Why open a business in France or Sweden and get taxed to death when you can manufacture for dirt cheap in Asia and sell in America?

COUNTERPOINT: This is already happening in Poland. Since the effective tax rate is around 70% (including social security), there’s not much room to increase taxes. So the government is currently cannibalizing the reserves it has to pay for the retirees. Once it runs out of reserves, it will have to cut off the retirement money, i.e. starve off the retiring baby boomers (let’s be blunt about this). This is currently predicted to happen in the 2020-2030 time frame. After that, the excessive tax burden will be gone, and a 20 year window of opportunity to re-stabilize demography opens until people born in 1980s start retiring.

Exactly my point. When you kill off all the old people, people will see how brutal the effects of contraception/abortion were. If people saw the government starving your grandparents because the culture accepted Epicureanism, you may start to question Epicureanism itself.

Demography WILL be re-stabilized after 2030, because the generation which will then be in power will be the same generation which will be hit by the boomer retirement crisis in 2020s, so the problem will be very well understood by everyone.

No, demography won’t be re-stabilized. You’re going to have the same problem over and over again, until the fertility rate goes back over 2.1. Yes, 2020-2030 will have a period of killing off the elderly. But the working age people of 2020-2030 will have to retire soon after, and THEY didn’t reproduce anyone to replace THEM either. So you’ll have an even SMALLER pool of people paying for the currently working age population when they retire.

The problem will just cycle again and again until 1) people stop contracepting/aborting or 2) when the economy literally ceases to exist.

 

[weller2]

I would debate that there is such thing as a “pro-Catholic” government in the industrialized world today.

I’d posit that Poland is as close as you get, given that meeting like these are held regularly:

http://ekai.pl/resize/800x650/zdjecia/komisja1.jpg

The guys on the right are the current cabinet.

Why open a business in France or Sweden and get taxed to death when you can manufacture for dirt cheap in Asia and sell in America?

…in exchange for what, if the US does not manufacture anything by itself? Oh, I know: in exchange for Federal Reserve Notes, which FED makes out of thin air.

No, demography won’t be re-stabilized. You’re going to have the same problem over and over again, until the fertility rate goes back over 2.1. Yes, 2020-2030 will have a period of killing off the elderly. But the working age people of 2020-2030 will have to retire soon after, and THEY didn’t reproduce anyone to replace THEM either.

That would be the case if the age structure was an inverted pyramid. However, in reality it looks like this:

http://bi.gazeta.pl/im/2/11368/z11368252Q,Piramida-wieku-ludnosci-w-Polsce--mezczyzni.jpg

There are two large cohorts. One is baby boomers, the other one is millenials.

Poland has essentially “solved” the problem by reforming the pension system in 1999. Without getting into details, the reform means that boomer’s retirement will be funded by millenials, but the millenials’ retirement will be funded by the millenials themselves. (Yep, this means that millenials will never get their retirement money, thanks for asking!).

The current sorry state of TFR in Poland is partly caused by the fact that the fiscal system does a massive wealth transfer from millenials to the boomers. In other words, boomers have thrown their own (grand-)children under the bus to finance their own retirement.

However – and here is the crucial part – observe that the two cohorts are 30 years apart. Which means that after the boomers die off, millenials get a ~20 year window of opportunity: the number of pensioners decreases, and they are 20 years away from retirement themselves. What they will do with opportunity remains to be seen, but they will have it.

By the way, abortion is a red herring. Polish women who emigrate to UK (where on-demand abortion is legal) have a TFR well above 2.

 

[Trebor135]

By the way, abortion is a red herring. Polish women who emigrate to UK (where on-demand abortion is legal) have a TFR well above 2.

Interesting. Where did you read that? Do you know what the TFR for Polish émigrés is in other countries?

I’m also curious to know how widespread abortion and contraception are in Poland.

 

[weller2]

Interesting. Where did you read that?

Polish sources. Here’s is the first thing in English I found with Google:

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2551531/Romanian-women-highest-fertility-rate-EU-experts-say-Britains-support-children-acts-draw.html

Do you know what the TFR for Polish émigrés is in other countries?

I don’t, but that’s not really relevant. The last emigration wave from Poland started in 2004 and went only to UK and Ireland.

I’m also curious to know how widespread abortion and contraception are in Poland.

Good question. For contraception, I don’t have the numbers, but it looks similar to everywhere else.

As for the number of abortions, this is a big question. The number of legal abortions is less than 1000 per year. However (a) everyone knows that there is abortion underground and (b) clinics in neighboring countries have Polish-speaking personnel.

 

[Thorns]

I do wonder if family size differences between secular and religious could change things. Often, religious and conservative people have more children. Assuming this trend continues and the religious do a good job of raising children to be aware of their Faith, demographics may tip back the other way.

I doubt it, the children may very well become atheists regardless of how they were brought up. Every single person Ive known from Kindergarten through high school (catholic schools) have abandoned Catholicism, with the exception of maybe three people but it doesnt appear they actually practice their faith based on their facebook statuses and pics. This trendy way of thinking and current secular philosophy is incredibly infectious.

 

[byzantium]

I live in Australia, last time i went to church there was noone there my age (im 20) or younger, there was only a handful of people my mothers age groups (40 -50). 90 percent of people were old.

As i said to my mum what will happen when these people die off. Will there even be a church in Australia.

The early Christian communities though small they were, were truly alive. To be Christian meant to be different. I think most people do not see the evil of modern western culture. While most people may identify as Christian in reality they are pagans.

 

[marymary1975]

I don’t have the stats handy, but it’s been happening rapidly over the last decade…especially because of the internet and the speed by which people can exchange information and debate such topics.
Furthermore, the current young generation rejection. Becoming agnostic/atheist now will be the ones helming positions in charge over the next few decades, and they will most likely be bringing up their own children to hold similar beliefs/non-beliefs…so it will probably continue to grow rapidly.

I don’t think there will be a de-secularization. At least, not for a looooong time.
IMO, it seems that a major shift of belief and thought happens every few centuries…and an overall upheaval happens every 1-2 thousands of years, and takes hold–gathering strength and momentum because the majority become in agreement.

I don’t think those who remain religious will be “persecuted” like in Roman times–no way!!! Everybody will just have to learn to live together with each other’s beliefs/non-beliefs as best we can.

.

I have to say I agree with you on ^^^. It is rapidly spreading and I don’t see it stopping for a long time. Though I must say that I think you need to look at regions. In Africa and Latin America while there is a big push for secularization there is a huge popular rejection. While it has worked to some extent in those areas there is still a big majority rejecting it so I think Africa and Latin america will be a different story than Europeand the US.

I also agree that there will be no ppersecution for the simple reason that the secular movements has assured more effective ways to reach their goals. Persecution has proven historically ineffective and they know it. Instead the “brainwashing” method has proved to be highly successful so that is what they will keep on doing. In the past the persecution used tobe pphysical not anymore. What is coming up is pshicological.

 

[manualman]

…However – and here is the crucial part – observe that the two cohorts are 30 years apart. Which means that after the boomers die off, millenials get a ~20 year window of opportunity: the number of pensioners decreases, and they are 20 years away from retirement themselves. What they will do with opportunity remains to be seen, but they will have it.

Uh, what? After the boomers die off the millenials will be relieved of that burden and have a 20 year productive window before retirement, eh? So 45 year old millenials will finally have the resources to start families of their own (or at least start having more than 1.3 kids)? You don’t see a tiny flaw in that plan??

Hint: Met terribly many 45 year old pregnant women? It happens, but not much.

Personally, I suspect that Poland’s TFR numbers are badly messed up by the massive emigration that has occurred in the last couple decades…

 

[manualman]

I doubt it, the children may very well become atheists regardless of how they were brought up. Every single person Ive known from Kindergarten through high school (catholic schools) have abandoned Catholicism, with the exception of maybe three people but it doesnt appear they actually practice their faith based on their facebook statuses and pics. This trendy way of thinking and current secular philosophy is incredibly infectious.

True, but needs context. Catholicism (in the USA, at least and probably in Oz too) has spent the last couple hundred years trying to convince mainstream American culture that we are a good fit here. For a shining moment in the 1950’s and 60’s, the mainstream culture finally did drop its overt hostility to Catholicism and catholics jumped into the deep end completely without wondering if there might be crocodiles in there.

In the last 15-20 years, there has been a sea change in how catholics see themselves comparing to the culture at large. I think we are seeing a substantial return to the recognition that the world is hostile to our faith and that we need to teach our kids from a young age to discern the difference between the truths of our faith and the cultural values around us.

I see it in my friends and the impressive young people that are going off to college and being parts of campus ministry, pro-life clubs, and Christian ministry firmly rooted in the idea that GOD is God and it’s our job to listen and learn from HIM (as opposed to the exact opposite view that has predominated the previous 25 years). Time will tell, I suppose. But I can’t personally see how this culture of narcissism can long perpetuate itself when humans fundamentally need more than indulgence of the passions to thrive.

 

[weller2]

Uh, what? After the boomers die off the millenials will be relieved of that burden and have a 20 year productive window before retirement, eh? So 45 year old millenials will finally have the resources to start families of their own (or at least start having more than 1.3 kids)? You don’t see a tiny flaw in that plan??

Hint: Met terribly many 45 year old pregnant women? It happens, but not much.

Hint: What will be the birth year of the US president in office in 2035?

Of course I do not expect the 1980-2000 cohort (millenials) to reproduce in 2035. In 2035, reproducing will be the job of the 2000-2020 cohort. Instead, the 1980-2000 cohort (millenials) will be governing the society. And millenials themselves will not start retiring until at least 2040 (more like 2050), and by that time, the 2020-2040 cohort (i.e. the children of the 2000-2020 cohort) will start entering the conomy. So millenials will get a shot at fixing the situation, by enacting policy which will get the 2000-2020 cohort to reproduce above replacement.

I have absolutely no idea what will be the job title of whoever will be ruling Poland in 2030, but I can guarantee that this person will have intimate understanding of the problem involved. Solving this does not require a rocket scientist either, because all they will have to do is to look at the policy which existed in their 20s and 30s and do the exact opposite.

Personally, I suspect that Poland’s TFR numbers are badly messed up by the massive emigration that has occurred in the last couple decades…

Emigration is the other side of the same coin – i.e. massive youth unemployment. (Paradoxically in the long run, having emigrants is better than having non-reproducing citizens, because emigrant’s retirement will be someone else’s problem. )

To keep in line with the topic of the thread, Polish millenials are hardcore secularists. It’s not that they hate the Catholic Church – they just don’t care. Ironically, this attitude has a lot to do with Catholic education in state schools – it seems that the Church in Poland has discovered a secret of mass-producing atheists So the Catholic Church in Poland is facing a disaster of epic proportions: a slow slide into total irrelevance.

So far, Poland has had a post-war demographic recovery and expansion under atheist rule (1945-1990), a demographic collapse under Catholic rule (1990-2025?) and can experience a future demographic recovery again under atheist rule (2025-?).

There’s some delightful irony in here. ( And a beautiful example of Strauss-Howe’s 80-year cycle! )