Hmmm, good post, but a couple of thoughts:
- The thread title talks about converting ATHEISTS to prayer, not agnostics. The Wager may make more sense for agnostics but if agnostics take the wager and find it lacking they should stop instead of continuing to live a lie. Even from a religious perspective the devil is the father of lies.
- Even if one decides to take the Wager, as other posters have pointed out why should he assume the Christian God should be the one to be prayed to with all of the other religions in the world?
Presumably, one would pray to “God, whoever He is”. Otherwise, one would try to look for the religion that is most likely to be true. In the worst case one can try to imitate the method of St. Vladimir (from Wikipedia’s article, citing a chronicle citing his envoys: “We knew not whether we were in Heaven or on Earth… We only know that God dwells there among the people, and their service is fairer than the ceremonies of other nations.”)…
- I’m not sure what you mean by your first example…the negative of dancing might be non-zero but the positive of a billion dollars is such a great advantage I don’t know any sane person who would say, “Meh, it’s not worth it,” if they were told dancing could get them a billion dollars.
Does dancing on the off chance that you can get a billion dollars make sense though? No, it does not, but by following Pascal’s Wager it seems as if dancing WOULD make sense, right?
OK, let’s look at the numbers (of course, they will be “taken from the ceiling”, but I hope that it will be enough for illustration). Let’s say that the utility of getting a billion dollars in this way is 10^10 “utils”, utility of dancing without gaining anything is -10^(-1) “utils”, the utility of not dancing is 0 and the probability of getting the money by dancing is 10^(-20). In such case the average utility of the strategy “dancing” is:
10^10 * 10^(-20) - 10^(-1) * (1 - 10^(-20)) = 10^(-20) - 10^(-1) + 10^(-20) = -10^(-1) + 2 * 10^(-20).
As you can see, the average utility of such strategy is negative, while the utility of “non-dancing” strategy is zero. Thus the “non-dancing” strategy is better. In short, the Wager doesn’t work that way.
- Ultimately though it comes back to what I said originally. Faking belief in God isn’t going to help you. I think believers and non-believers both believe that living a lie is not the right way to live.
Well, would it really be a lie, if one would sincerely try to believe or pray? I will note that St. Vladimir is considered to be a saint, although his choice of religion was not based on pure reason either. Also, while the perfect contrition is considered to be far better than imperfect contrition, the later is still considered to be sufficiently good for confession.
Furthermore, the Wager is meant to be applied when reason doesn’t tell us which belief is more likely to be correct. In a sense, the Wager is a tiebreaker.
Thus, let’s look at the medical science. Someone goes to a screening. Some simple and cheap tests are performed. Unfortunately, those tests do not always conclude that the man is or is not healthy with full certainty. So, what do the medics do? Sending the unhealthy man home might end up in death, while sending a healthy man to the hospital will only end up in some inconvenience. Thus they assume that the man is unhealthy, unless it has been shown that it is highly unlikely. In short, “The man is not healthy” is a “null hypothesis”.
And the Wager, using almost the same reasoning (if “God exists.” is not sufficiently similar to “Man is unhealthy.”, we can reword the later as “Disease exists.”) shows that “God exists.” should be the “null hypothesis”. If the reasoning is fine in the case of medical science, why would it be completely wrong in this case…? And then it’s up to the (potential) atheist to demonstrate that he can reach something like “The null hypothesis has been rejected (alpha < 0.05).”.
Oh, and, by the way, the analogy works in one more way: there is more than one potential disease. Existence of “differential diagnostics” should be a good hint for the way to choose one of different religions…
