D
dochawk
Guest
I don’t think that there is an identifiable “threshold.”So it matters how many die? Of course you can’t speak for your priest but I wonder what the threshold is.
The risk, I suppose, would need to be significantly higher than that of having a fatal car accident, but certainly somewhat less than the risk of large groups congregating.
It’s also important to note that the risk of the gatherings isn’t simply of individuals getting the infection there, but of the secondary and tertiary spreading that comes from that. That is, I wouldn’t be risking just myself by going, but everyone with whom I come into contact later (and for this disease, people are contagious for days before they have any reason to suspect that they’re sick . . .
For a pandemic type disease, it’s all about getting the R value below 1 (and the farther the better). There are various risks that we take that must be taken (we can’t go this one without buying food or having it delivered, for example). Each and every one of these adds a bit to R–and the more people are in the same place where infection can spread, the larger the increase. Mathematically, the increased risk is likely in the range of geometric, and also near geometric in the number of other potential transmission vectors following any posible transmission.