OK, here you go…
My proposed hypothesis: Consciousness can exist outside of the brain.
My arguments:
On September 11, 2003, new research by the Institute of Psychiatry caused British scientists to announce that there is convincing evidence that people are capable of paranormal feats, such as premonitions, telepathy, and out-of-body experiences.
Thank you. That is a serious argument. Here are few problems with it.
First, the consciousness is still within the realm of the brain, albeit in “strange” circumstances.
Second, a simple objection: If there would be a verifyable instance of any paranormal activity, there is a group of skeptics, who offer a million dollar reward for its demonstration. (The James Randi Foundation.) So far there were a few takers, but no winners. This, of course proves nothing. There may very well be something “out there”, which has not been demonstrated yet.
Third, a more serious one: Such an ability would have tremendous survival value. To have premonition of impending danger would increase the ability to survive and during the millenia of evolution, this trait would have been “filtered” through and would be quite prevalent today. And, of course it has not. At best it is a sporadic and unpredictable phenomenon.
The **fourth **one is the most serious one, and it criticizes the methodology of how the raw data was obtained and evaluated. When one presupposes a correlation between two events (in this case premonition and its accuracy) then there are 4 possible scenarios, which must be quantified, and then a correlation matrix can be set up. I am using the premonition as an example, but the same method can be used for all the other instances.
Based upon the correlation matrix we can calculate if there exists a positive or negative correlation. Let’s call the existence of a premontion: event “A”. The lack of premonition will be event “not A”. Let’s call the assumed events which was foreseen: event “B”. Consequently the lack of this event will be event “not B”. As an example: One may report that he had a premonition that his child will have an accident, and the accident actually happened - “x1 times”. He had no premonition and the event happened - “x2 times”. He had premonition, but the event happened - “x3 times”. And finally, he had no premonition and the event did not happen - “x4 times”.
The correlation matrix will need to contain these 4 numbers:
Code:
| event A event not-A
-----------------------------------------------------------------
event B | x1 x3
|
event not-B | x2 x4
If and only if the four values of x1, x2, x3 and x4 can be obtained then the correlation matrix can be evaluated. However, that never happens. People remember
vividly when a “foreseen” event actually occurs. But that is only the frequency of “x1”. If the event was “foreseen” but it never happened (“x3”) no one remembers that. If the event was not foreseen, but it happened (“x2”) that is not recorded anywhere. And of course, “x4”, the event was not foreseen and it did not happen is the most elusive one. No one can assign a numerical value to this combination - it is impossible in theory.
The trouble is therefore with the “research”, that it had no control group, only one of the 4 possibilities was taken into consideration and therefore their result is useless. Worse than useless, actually, because it creates a “false positive hope”.
Conclusion: the evidence cited does not support anything, either the existence of out-of-body “mind”, or the lack of it. There is not even a little bit of correlation, which might merit further evaluation.
Contrast this with the naturalist’s millions upon millions of actual pieces of evidence, you will see that only the hypothesis of naturalist qualifies as a good working hypothesis.