Is a Baathist Surrender in the Works?

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This could come to nothing, of course, but it also could be the best news from Iraq in a long time: "U.S. in Secret Talks with Iraqi Insurgents":

U.S. diplomats and intelligence officers are conducting secret talks with Iraq’s Sunni insurgents on ways to end fighting there, Time magazine reported on Sunday, citing Pentagon and other sources. The magazine cited a secret meeting between two members of the U.S. military and an Iraqi negotiator, a middle-aged former member of Saddam Hussein’s regime and the senior representative of what he called the nationalist insurgency.

“We are ready to work with you,” the Iraqi negotiator said, according to Time.

Iraqi insurgent leaders not aligned with al Qaeda ally Abu Mousab al-Zarqawi told the magazine several nationalist groups composed of what the Pentagon calls “former regime elements” have become open to negotiating. The insurgents said their aim was to establish a political identity that can represent disenfranchised Sunnis.

The so-called insurgency has long consisted of two main elements, the al Qaeda-linked terrorists, most of whom are not Iraqis, and Baathist Sunnis whose objectives are more narrowly political. It sounds as though some of the latter group, at least, are ready to throw in the towel. Their violence had two main strategic objectives: first, to prevent President Bush from being re-elected; second, to prevent the Iraqi election from going forward. Both failed. If they give up, the terrorists will be isolated and can much more easily be defeated.

This news story is closely related: "Sunnis Seek Place in New Iraqi Government":

As the Shiite majority prepared to take control of the country’s first freely elected government, tribal chiefs representing Sunni Arabs in six provinces issued a list of demands — including participation in the government and drafting a new constitution — after previously refusing to acknowledge the vote’s legitimacy. “We made a big mistake when we didn’t vote,” said Sheik Hathal Younis Yahiya, 49, a representative from northern Nineveh. “Our votes were very important.”

He said threats from insurgents — not sectarian differences — kept most Sunnis from voting.

Gathering in a central Baghdad hotel, about 70 tribal leaders from the provinces of Baghdad, Kirkuk, Salaheddin, Diyala, Anbar and Nineveh, tried to devise a strategy for participation in a future government. There was an air of desperation in some quarters of the smoke-filled conference room.

“When we said that we are not going to take part, that didn’t mean that we are not going to take part in the political process. We have to take part in the political process and draft the new constitution,” said Adnan al-Duleimi, the head of Sunni Endowments in Baghdad.

The consequences of last month’s election, all of them beneficent, continue to unfold. It is beginning to look as though the election was even more of a turning point than we realized at the time.

powerlineblog.com/archives/2005_02.php#009627
 
From the Belmont Club:

The available data suggests that the Sunni insurgents are still capable of showing strength within their strongholds and menacing traffic on the Baghdad streets. However, even within their bailiwicks, their capabilities are not decisive. They have been unable to impede or even delay the political goals set by the US as evidenced by their failure to stop the January 30 elections. Moreover, they are unable to project any significant combat power in Shi’ite and Kurdish areas. Faced with the loss of oil revenues, a growing Iraqi security force and the gradual depletion of their stored weapons and suffering a terrible attrition rate their relative power is irretrievably on the wane.

Austin Bay recalls being in a Corps’ Joint Operations Center(JOC) during his tour in Iraq and watching the computer display reel out what was effectively a gauge of enemy losses, ticking like a taximeter.

The biggest display, that morning and every morning, was a spooling date-time list describing scores of military and police actions undertaken over the last dozen hours, Examples: “0331: 1/5 Cav, 1st Cavalry Division, arrests two suspects after Iraqi police stop car”; “0335 USMC patrol vicinity Fallujah engaged by RPG, returned fire. No casualties.”

The spool went on and on and on, and I remember thinking : “I know we’re winning.” … Every day coalition forces were moving thousands of 18-wheelers from Kuwait and Turkey into Iraq, and if the “insurgents” were lucky they blew up one. However, flash the flames of that one diesel rig on CNN and “oh my God, America can’t stop these guys” is the impression left in Boston, Boise, and Beijing.

The regular newspapers have in their own way chronicled the insurgency’s decline. The new European friendliness towards the Bush administration; Kofi Annan’s pitiful attempt to claim credit for the Iraqi elections; America’s recent agressiveness towards Syria; Senator Clinton’s newfound optimism; the Ba’athist recent despair – each chronicles after its fashion the story of defeat – though the reader is left to deduce who is defeated.

It will probably be many months before the insurgency finally flickers out. Attempts will be made to extend its life through negotiations to win breathing space, through renewed and ever more heinous attacks. Unexpected events or a blunder may yet breathe life into it. But for the first time since terrorist warfare was developed and perfected in the Algerian war it has met its match on the battlefield. The vanquishing arms may have been American, but the heart that drove it was in large measure Iraqi.

belmontclub.blogspot.com/2005/02/many-partings.html
 
I thought it was immoral to negotiate with terrorists…now where did I hear that…I remember, the 2004 Republican Party Platform issues2000.org/Archive/2004_GOP_Platform_War_+_Peace.htm

** Total and complete destruction of terrorism is needed **

There is no negotiation with terrorists. No form of therapy or coercion will turn them from their murderous ways. Only total & complete destruction of terrorism will allow freedom to flourish.
 
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Matt25:
I thought it was immoral to negotiate with terrorists…now where did I hear that…I remember, the 2004 Republican Party Platform issues2000.org/Archive/2004_GOP_Platform_War_+_Peace.htm

**Total and complete destruction of terrorism is needed **

There is no negotiation with terrorists. No form of therapy or coercion will turn them from their murderous ways. Only total & complete destruction of terrorism will allow freedom to flourish.
The Sunni Baathists are not terrorists per se, as the single minded focus of their resistance was a perceive occupation of their country. The effects of their efforts don’t extend outside the Iraqi borders. There will be no such talks with the al-Zarqawi followers, they are terrorists. They fight because they want to kill Americans, Iraq just happens to be the most convenient place for them to do that right now.
 
Is the United States conducting secret negotiations with Iraqi insurgents to deliver their surrender? That’s the report coming out of Time magazine, though it has been denied by the White House. The negotiations are reported to be with one or more indiginous Iraqi groups seeking to shift from open warfare to political recognition. Chester offers some analysis, and explains the dynamics involved. Wretchard puts this story together with several other reports to suggest the insurgency in Iraq is in dire straits, though this will not mean that it will be clear sailing from here on out.
hat tip
 
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Scott_Lafrance:
The Sunni Baathists are not terrorists per se, as the single minded focus of their resistance was a perceive occupation of their country. The effects of their efforts don’t extend outside the Iraqi borders. There will be no such talks with the al-Zarqawi followers, they are terrorists. They fight because they want to kill Americans, Iraq just happens to be the most convenient place for them to do that right now.
A few intelligence sources are reporing that the Sunni leadership in some cases is divorcing itself from the known terrorirsts - they see the political opportunity as more “beneficial” than supporting people who will be standing trial for war crimes hopefully.
 
From Mudville Gazette:

’Insurgents’ negotiating with coalition forces in Iraq? Perhaps so. But if it’s true, lets not question who’s negotiating from a position of power. (And don’t be deceived by the wording of the Time story - if there’s any negotiating going on with the insurgents it’s not just the Americans, the Iraqis are in the discussion too.)
If you’ve been reading Mudville for any time at all you must have gotten the message: the insurgents are on the ropes. Make no mistake about it - they are capable of killing people in large numbers, but their political effectiveness is virtually nil.

And falling.

Continue reading “Meanwhile, back at the Front”… »
 
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