Your example was totally unrelated to what was said. What was said is: There is x% of homosexuals, group A. There is Y% of pedophiles, group B. What the above is saying is that 30 to 40% of the members of group B are also members of group A, which means that a very high percentage of group A is pedophilic compared to the general population given that Group A forms a very small percentage of the general population. So the study does indeed tell us something about the incidence of pedophilia amongst homosexuals.*
Of course, since none of the percentages are known, we just don’t know what they are telling us.
Let me try to explain it to you. Stick with me - statistical analysis is not only interesting, it’s also vital if you’re using the statistics to draw moral conclusions, since you really do need to be honest about it.
There are unknown numbers of group A (homosexuals), unknown numbers of group B (pedophiles) and unknown numbers of group C (heterosexuals).
Members of group B must, by definition, also belong to either A or C (or in very very rare statistically insignificant cases, both groups). It is therefore, by definition, not possible for members of group B to not belong to either A or C.
Not all members of either Group A or C necessarily belong to group B.
I think most people would agree that Group B (pedophiles) represents a
tiny proportion of the total of Group A and C (being the whole population of the world of either orientation) - otherwise prisons would be overflowing with pedophiles.
Evidence appears to suggest that there is a 40% chance that members of group B also belong to group A, otherwise they also belong to group C.
The position that because 40% of group B (pedophiles) also belongs to group A (homosexuals) does not in ANY way prove that group A (homosexuals) has a high absolute percentage of its members being also of Group B (pedophiles) since we do not know the numbers involved in both groups. We
do know that group A (homosexuals) has
some members who are in group B (pedophiles) and likewise, group C (heterosexuals) also has
some members (numerically about 50% more) who are also members of group B.
The point the author of this “statistic” is trying to draw out (by deliberately conflating mismatching samples) is that homosexuals are automatically predisposed to being pedophiles, which is totally unsupportable by simple maths, and instead may well be being done from the point of view of supporting ingrained prejudices.
Now depending on the numbers involved, if the 40% hit rate is accurate, the
chances of a homosexual being also a pedophile are higher than a heterosexual being a pedophile if we accept that that homosexuals represent a smaller percentage of the total population (which they do).
I’m now going to try to illustrate this with figures.
To have any idea of what chance someone has to be both a homosexual or a heterosexual AND a pedophile, we need to have some idea of how many pedophiles in total there are and what percentage of the population is hetero- or homo-sexual.
So… let’s assume that homosexuals represent 5% of the total population - I think that’s a reasonable estimate, being somewhere in the middle of various surveys that place the percentage ranging from 2% to 8%, depending on the slant of the source.
Now I can’t find any sources that give any indication of the incidence of pedophilia in the population. So lets just take an assumption… Let’s assume that 10 in 10,000 people have pedophiliac tendencies, whether or not acted upon. Personally I’d have said that was astronomically high, but let’s go with it to illustrate the maths (if anyone has any authoritative sources of figures I’ll willingly revise my sums). Of this 10,000 people, 500 might be assumed to be homosexual. That means, on the basis of their being a 40% chance of a pedophile being also homosexual, that there are 4 pedophiles in the 10,000 random sample who are homosexual, and 6 who are heterosexual. so there’s a 4 in 500 chance that any random homosexual might also be a pedophile and a 6 in 9500 chance of a heterosexual being a pedophile. Expressed as likelihood, a homosexual is potentially 19 times more likely to be a pedophile than a heterosexual might be (if you believe the figures),
but that likelihood does not illustrate much.
The conclusion you have to draw, because there’s no other conclusion available, is that a 19 x more likely chance of something that is very very tiny is still very tiny.
Unless the quantity of pedophiles in a population is approaching that of the quantity of homosexuals, you
cannot get to a mathematically supportable position whereby you can say that the chances of a homosexual being a pedophile is ‘very high’.
I deal with mathematics and logic every day of my life. I know what I’m talking about. When people draw conclusions about homosexuals having a high chance of being pedophiles they would seem to mean that if you take two homosexuals, the predominant likelihood is that one or both of them is also a pedophile.
That is unsupportable because there is no evidence to support it so to perpetuate this conclusion is to perpetuate something which cannot be known to be true, and without knowing it to be true it cannot be stated, as it is in so many places, to be a fact. On that basis it is entirely wrong to suggest that homosexuals are particularly susceptible to pedophiliac tendencies. Some - a few, probably less than 1 or 2% -
might be. That’s all we can say. It might be more than you’d find in the heterosexual population, but it’s still not something you’d expect to find in the homosexual population.