I would disagree with you that it (#2) is a negative declaration, as it can result later in a declaration that the apparition is approved. And yes, #3 is not the law, and there has been discussion as to whether of not it is rolled up into 2; but it clearly is different from 2.
As I noted, I don’t follow Medjugorje, but it is my recollection that at one point Rome stepped in and removed the matter from the local bishop. Having watched charges and counter charges between those who were in charge of the shrine/church/area and the bishop, I decided that I had better things to do than try to take sides.
And whether 3 is law of not, there is nothing preventing a bishop, Rome, or any other duly appointed individual/group from declaring 3; I can think of several alleged apparitions in the US that were either purely natural causes, or a hoax, and all would fit clearly within it.
I don’t know of any apparition which has been declared approved while the apparition was continuing to occur; so whether the Church officially or unofficially takes the position of #2, that is not a negative; it is simply a holding period.