Is it reasonable to be a global warming skeptic?

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LeafByNiggle:
Then you problem is with the media, not with scientists.
The alarmism is symbiotic between the media and a select group of AGW scientists.

Mann etal could change the media tone by not publicly calling their opponents ‘DENIERS’.
Now it’s back to a “select” group? Well, if your criticism is only about a select group, then fine. There are plenty of scientists outside of that select group we could listen to.
 
Now it’s back to a “select” group? Well, if your criticism is only about a select group, then fine. There are plenty of scientists outside of that select group we could listen to.
You mean the scientists they’ve discredited and ostracized by labeling as ‘DENIERS’??
Why do you go in circles on this ?
The people in the middle learned to not stick their neck out.
 
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LeafByNiggle:
Now it’s back to a “select” group? Well, if your criticism is only about a select group, then fine. There are plenty of scientists outside of that select group we could listen to.
You mean the scientists they’ve discredited and ostracized by labeling as ‘DENIERS’??
No, I mean the scientists who are saying the same thing as the “select group” is saying as far as global warming theory.
 
Hi LBN,

The IPCC is not a funding agency.

In support of it being the acknowledged gold standard authority on all matters climate, I can cite John Holdren who said this about the IPCC’s findings:

“The most important conclusions … are based on an immense edifice of painstaking studies published in the world’s leading peer-reviewed scientific journals. They have been vetted and documented in excruciating detail by the largest, longest, costliest, most international, most interdisciplinary, and most thorough formal review of a scientific topic ever conducted.”

Journalist Donna Laframboise has a database of paeans to the IPCC and its unique authoritativeness [ The IPCC - Quotes About ] .

Oh, they also won a Nobel.
 
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Hi LBN,

The IPCC is not a funding agency.
OK, so they exercise no control over climate scientists, other than that control that comes with being recognized for doing good work. Not the sort of control that enables them to subvert the scientific community and bend them to their maleficent will. The IPCC reflects what scientists are saying. It does not force what they are saying.
 
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The IPCC sets the agenda for climate research. It influences but does not control rank and file climate scientists. Being selected as an IPCC author is a plum position, although largely not remunerative. The IPCC is supposed to honestly and fairly summarize the current climate science. It does not do a good job in that regard. We know from the Hockey Stick and climategate scandals that it solicits research which will support the party line and that there are scientists ready and willing to deliver.
 
It’s a shame that politics has made this issue so controversial. I’m not bothered by those who receive funding for their work. I’m not bothered by people who think it’s all a hoax. Why all the fuss?
Hi Peter,

There’s a lot at stake.
 
The IPCC sets the agenda for climate research.
A suggested agenda can be ignored, since the scientists are not under the direct control of the IPCC. If they do follow the agenda of the IPCC it is because they want to.
Being selected as an IPCC author is a plum position, although largely not remunerative.
Why it is a plum position, if the IPCC has such a bad reputation? I mean, if they are recommending stuff that scientists know is wrong, they would not think it so great to work with the IPCC.
The IPCC is supposed to honestly and fairly summarize the current climate science. It does not do a good job in that regard.
Your opinion.
 
Hi LBN,

Nothing in doubt about the IPCC’s agenda. It is written into its charter: We exist to serve the UNFCCC, a convention dedicated to proving that human CO2 emissions are a problem.

The IPCC’s reputation is underservedly good, and being able to participate in the writing and review process is a privilege and chance to enhance one’s resume.

Of course it is my opinion, which happens to be an informed opinion. It also happens to be shared by many others. The simple truth is that the IPCC fails in its central mission to fairly and accurately summarize climate science. Given its built-in and inherent biases, it being heavily infiltrated by environmental activists, the content of its reports ultimately being controlled by the politicians, its failure to use the best scientists, and its very flawed writing and review process, its failure is not surprising.
 
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Going back to 392
They [paleo temp reconstructions] don’t have to be [credible]. The theory is well enough supported by modern instrumental readings.
How can modern instrumental readings tell us what global temps were 1,000 years ago?

The IPCC needs paleo reconstructions to maintain the first element of the global warming hypothesis, namely that the earth’s warming is unusual. Their summaries proclaim that the present temps are unprecedented in 2,000 years. But that claim goes down the drain if there is no good evidence to be found in the paleo reconstructions.

Recall the conspiracy to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period. Mann et al were reputed to have done so with their 1998-99 hockey stick studies, and for 5 years that’s what the world believed. But then McIntyre and McKittrick demolished the Hockey Stick. But the IPCC needed the Hockey Stick, so Hockey Sticks proliferated. When McIntyre tried to audit these other sticks, he was met with the same stonewalling and other tactics as practiced by Mann. He also found they were all just flawed, just in new and creative ways. The whole paleo community, except for a few exceptions (Von Storch and Zorita come to mind) closed ranks around Mann and defended the indefensible.

As Richard Muller once said, “I now know whose papers I don’t need to read anymore.” Amen.

No, they do need to be credible as they are a key part of the case for catastrophic global warming. And they aren’t.
 
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How can modern instrumental readings tell us what global temps were 1,000 years ago?

The IPCC needs paleo reconstructions to maintain the first element of the global warming hypothesis, namely that the earth’s warming is unusual.
Why is it necessary to prove that the warming is unusual? Their is enough of an instrumental temperature to give evidence to the the link between burning of fossil fuels to CO2 and warming from trapped IR radiation. That together with the fact that the fundamental mechanism for CO2 trapping heat is understood is strong evidence.
Recall the conspiracy to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.
Can’t because there was no such conspiracy.]
 
Why is it necessary to prove that the warming is unusual? Their is enough of an instrumental temperature to give evidence to the the link between burning of fossil fuels to CO2 and warming from trapped IR radiation. That together with the fact that the fundamental mechanism for CO2 trapping heat is understood is strong evidence.
They want to be able to say that the warming since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution is unprecedented, because then they can point to the sudden release of CO2 from the burning off fossil fuels as the most likely cause. It also helps make the case that the warming will be dangerous.

This why the Medieval Warm Period had to go. Can’t be making a strong case for anthropogenic GW if the planet was warmer a thousand years ago when there were no SUVs. This is why they had to adjust the temps from the 1930’s downward and, at the same time, exaggerate the late 20th century warming.

And yes, there was a conspiracy. Read Montford’s two books. They lay it all out in gory detail.
 
Topical: A report approved by the Trump administration today concedes that global warming is very real.

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/
This is just the kind of report that demonstrates all the issues being discussed. Here is a government report put out that makes the case for man made global warming. The problem is it appears to be more than a little scientifically deficient despite the scientific aura that surrounds it.

This is the Fourth National Climate Assessment Report in a string of reports of dubious quality.

the first Assessment used models that were worse than a table of random numbers when applied to 20th century coterminous U.S. temperatures, and the chief scientist for the report knew it and went ahead anyway!

That the first report was an acknowledged dog doesn’t necessarily mean the fourth one is as well, although that seems quite probable. The report is based on model predictions, but:

The models predict that there should have been a huge “hot spot” over the entire tropics, which is a bit less than 40% of the globe’s surface. Halfway up through the atmosphere (by pressure), or at 500 hPa, the predicted warming is also twice what is being observed, and further up, the prediction is for seven times more warming than is being observed.

Believing that warming is accelerating and that man is responsible simply because a government report makes that claim, despite evidence to the contrary, doesn’t seem…reasonable.
 
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They want to be able to say that the warming since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution is unprecedented, because then they can point to the sudden release of CO2 from the burning off fossil fuels as the most likely cause.
It is unprecedented since the dawn of instrumental readings, which do go back somewhat before the industrial revolution. That is enough to give evidence as to the cause, and it is only part of the evidence that supports the theory.
This why the Medieval Warm Period had to go.
It has not gone anywhere.
And yes, there was a conspiracy. Read Montford’s two books. They lay it all out in gory detail.
If I cited a book that I said would convince you that global warming was real, would you go out and buy it? No? Well, don’t expect anyone else to go out and buy a book just because you say it will support your point. If you want to use Montford as a reference, then you can copy out the relevant passages and post them here and then people can read them.
 
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anikins:
Topical: A report approved by the Trump administration today concedes that global warming is very real.

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/
This is just the kind of report that demonstrates all the issues being discussed. Here is a government report put out that makes the case for man made global warming. The problem is it appears to be more than a little scientifically deficient despite the scientific aura that surrounds it.

This is the Fourth National Climate Assessment Report in a string of reports of dubious quality.

the first Assessment used models that were worse than a table of random numbers when applied to 20th century coterminous U.S. temperatures, and the chief scientist for the report knew it and went ahead anyway!

That the first report was an acknowledged dog doesn’t necessarily mean the fourth one is as well, although that seems quite probable. The report is based on model predictions, but:

The models predict that there should have been a huge “hot spot” over the entire tropics, which is a bit less than 40% of the globe’s surface. Halfway up through the atmosphere (by pressure), or at 500 hPa, the predicted warming is also twice what is being observed, and further up, the prediction is for seven times more warming than is being observed.

Believing that warming is accelerating and that man is responsible simply because a government report makes that claim, despite evidence to the contrary, doesn’t seem…reasonable.
Nothing you have written here supports your contention. There is nothing to a argue. You think the report is unreasonable - for some reason…?
 
Nothing you have written here supports your contention. There is nothing to a argue. You think the report is unreasonable - for some reason…?
I would have thought pointing out that since the report is based on model predictions, and the models in a key section predicted seven times more warming that actually occurred, it might have made the point about the politicization of science. Noting that the first such report was obviously flawed, and that the head “scientist” was aware of the deficiencies yet published the report anyway simply reinforces pretty much everything iggypkrebsbach has said about the shenanigans and misbehavior of the alarmists.
 
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