Is stocks like gambling?

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People used to scratch the ground, eating bugs, rodents, and plants to survive. They had little to no medical care and died young, that is the good old days only for the blind. Today we live twice as long with overeating as a major concern. We drink clean water, ride in cars, plant grass and trees in the desert where we play golf and relax under air conditioning. Times are good and getting better. Stocks, bonds, money, futures, and options are just contracts which transfer the work of men into an exchange system by which they acquire the work performed by other men.

The future is bright.
 
I am not sure who the “them” is you refer to, but I assume you mean day traders. I have the same objective - buy low and sell high (well, actually, I am closer to buy high and sell higher). I prefer position trading to swing trading, and I know myself well enough that I do not want to day trade.

I am not saying anywhere that people cannot make money day trading; there are extremely successful people doing so. However, the more I read, the more I hear what a high fallout rate there is among them. Day trading was sold by people who were going to teach a system. I don’t know how successful they were at day traing themselves, but there is the old saw “Those who can, do. Those who can’t do, teach. And those who can’t teach, administer.” Having been in real estatre for 7 years and seen untold numbers of trainers, I learned a little secret - they made a whole pot full of money in their training seminars, and it was a lot less work than being in the trenches every day.

Further, as day trading results in numerous trades, one of the clear profit centers is in the fees going in and going out. Another, not so clear profit center is in the spread, made by the market maker. And all too many people get eaten up by those two, even when they are selling the stock(s) for more than they bought them; as they don’t necessarily sell for enough more.

If someone were to ask me, I would advise them to learn to position trade, and when they are more profitable at that than, say, the S&P 500 consistently, then learn to swing trade; same rules for profitibility; and if they love sitting in front of a computer, have ice water in their veins, and almost total control of their emotions, go for day trading.
So are you a trainer? How do you have an advantage on a day trader? If you imply the day traders have profits stolen by front running well that means you lose less but that is losses not profits. What is it about swing trades that gives advantage?
 
otjm
Since I gave the definiton of gambling - not knowing the odds - I would not put day trading into the definition of gambling. However, statistically, day trading has an extremely high fallout rate - I have seen 90% repeatedly…
Sorry otjm, my comments on day trading were not addressed to you in particular. I was just responding to some of the comments made by other people about day trading. I see now I should have put that second paragraph in a seperate post. I do agree with all your comments in the post I have quoted from above.👍
 
If he sells on an open volume contract for $1 a bushel is he safe with no price risk or will he go broke, can he go broke since is “price risk” is gone? that is a primary of the commodity definition that is correct it is in the commodity market actually cost did change that much, as mentioned earlier it is fuel which is a primary cost in most commodity markets Name any account and you have one, 100% of accounts are charged fees and commission which cover many costs to include the cost of speculators. Speculators can operate in any market. By the way to get your answer read about the history of onions trading at Chicago Merc

hope that helps
  1. The farmer is safe from price risk if he sells. He is not safe from all risk. Of course he can go broke. He knows that. What is your point?
  2. Can you explain to us how the cost of producing corn rises and falls with the price? In Mid June the price of corn was $4.60. In late July it was around $3.00. Did the cost of producing a bushel this year fall by 1/3 in a month? The price of oil sure didn’t fall by 1/3 in one month. Now prices are around $3.50. So, did the production cost per bushel rise in two weeks by 16%? Can you tell us what factors of production changed in those time periods?
Can you tell us why prices change after the harvest? Costs don’t change after harvest. All costs are in by then. How can prices change?

3*.“Name any account and you have one, 100% of accounts are charged fees and commission which cover many costs to include the cost of speculators. Speculators can operate in any market. By the way to get your answer read about the history of onions trading at Chicago Merc”*

That is absolute nonsense. Exchange fees go to the exchange. Clearing fees go to the clearing house, A small fee goes to the National Futures Association. Commissions go to the Futures Commission Merchant. Can you tell us more about those fees to cover speculators? How does the money get to the speculator? Exactly what fee is charged to cover speculators? Who collects these fees? Who gives them to the speculators?

I agree speculators can operate in any market. So can everyone farmers, elevators, millers, processors, exporters, etc. Anyone can operate in any market. What is your point?

My challenge stands. Show one instance where a customer account at the CME or CBOT lost money because of a speculator default in the last 100 years. Just one. Any one.
 
I don’t profess to know much about how the stock exchange works, other than it’s about investing in a company and making returns on how good that company does business-wise. But I do know a hatful about human nature, and I think the rule “All things in moderation” applies. I think some people can get addicted to the thrill of having great returns on their investments, just as a person can get addicted to the thrill of winning big at the slots or at blackjack, and I think, when it starts to consume the person from within, that’s when it can become a problem. When a person starts to invest more than just their time, money and determination, when it’s more about the rush they get when they “win”, that’s when it becomes a problem. Not that doing well and feeling good about it is a bad thing, but when that’s all that matters to you, when you are so consumed by it that it means more to you than life itself, that’s when you need to step back, reassess your priorities and put it all in God’s hands.
 
  1. The farmer is safe from price risk if he sells. He is not safe from all risk. Of course he can go broke. He knows that. What is your point?
  2. Can you explain to us how the cost of producing corn rises and falls with the price? In Mid June the price of corn was $4.60. In late July it was around $3.00. Did the cost of producing a bushel this year fall by 1/3 in a month? The price of oil sure didn’t fall by 1/3 in one month. Now prices are around $3.50. So, did the production cost per bushel rise in two weeks by 16%? Can you tell us what factors of production changed in those time periods?
Can you tell us why prices change after the harvest? Costs don’t change after harvest. All costs are in by then. How can prices change?

3*.“Name any account and you have one, 100% of accounts are charged fees and commission which cover many costs to include the cost of speculators. Speculators can operate in any market. By the way to get your answer read about the history of onions trading at Chicago Merc”*

That is absolute nonsense. Exchange fees go to the exchange. Clearing fees go to the clearing house, A small fee goes to the National Futures Association. Commissions go to the Futures Commission Merchant. Can you tell us more about those fees to cover speculators? How does the money get to the speculator? Exactly what fee is charged to cover speculators? Who collects these fees? Who gives them to the speculators?

I agree speculators can operate in any market. So can everyone farmers, elevators, millers, processors, exporters, etc. Anyone can operate in any market. What is your point?

My challenge stands. Show one instance where a customer account at the CME or CBOT lost money because of a speculator default in the last 100 years. Just one. Any one.
*Onion Futures Act
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
The Onion Futures Act (7 U.S.C Chapter 1 § 13-1]) is a United States law banning the trading of futures contracts on onions. It was passed on August 28, 1958, and remains in effect as of 2009[update].
This law is notable as the first and only ban on the trading of futures contracts of a specific commodity in United States history, and as a unique modern case with which to study the effects of the existence of an active futures market on commodity prices. In particular, proponents of futures markets often claim that they serve to stabilize otherwise volatile commodity supplies (and thus, prices) by providing a market-driven consensus mechanism for future price estimation. The conclusions drawn in subsequent studies of the effects of the Act upon price volatility have been mixed.

The law was enacted after national protests from onion farmers who accused the futures traders at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange of cornering the market for onions, a form of market manipulation that they claimed resulted in absurdly low prices for their crops.

The law was proposed by Republican Congressman Gerald Ford, who later became the President of the United States.[1]

[edit] Effect on price volatilty
The ban provided academics with a unique opportunity to study the effect of an active futures market on commodity prices. Holbrook Working concluded that onion prices had been less volatile during the years when the contract was active than previously.

Roger Gray, a professor emeritus of economics at Stanford University and an expert in agricultural futures markets, analyzed the effects of the ban in 1963 and concluded that the existence of a standardized futures contract had reduced volatility in onion prices while they existed compared to after the ban went into effect.

A subsequent 1973 study by Aaron C. Johnson contradicted that result and concluded that onion prices were less volatile throughout the 1960s than when the contract had been traded.*

Or you may read dozens of books or use common sense, or look at people banned, sued, or jailed by these organizations as the "CME or CBOT " or SEC or others Commodities sell at or extremely close to cost that is a primary of the word commodity. If there is a shortage or excess production the product can stop being a commodity at least for a while. To prevent this the US government both buys grain to reduce the likely hood of a storage, and moves grain through foreign aid programs to reduce the likely hood of surplus problems.

The cost of grain typically tracks the cost of fuel; fuel is a primary cost of most commodities so if you look you will find a direct relationship between fuel prices and commodities. Now why post production cost are different than futures cost, there is a variety of factors 1) discounting the value of money, 2)spot market, and 3) the break from the commodity market. Discounting occurs on all money related issues a $1 paid one year from today is worth $1- 365 days of interest(~$0.95) today same for futures so one million dollars worth of grain in six months is worth about ~$975,000 today. If you choice $975,000 today or $1,000,000 in 180 days those are equals The spot market which still exists and clears the grain not covered by futures so if a farmer contracts 80% of his crop the last 20% is sold on a spot market which is affected by all factors. And lastly if the spot market is in surplus or barren then the grain breaks for the commodity market and becomes rationed or dumped via free market principles.

Hope that covers it for you
 
Onion Futures Act
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
The Onion Futures Act (7 U.S.C Chapter 1 § 13-1]) is a United States law banning the trading of futures contracts on onions. It was passed on August 28, 1958, and remains in effect as of 2009[update].

This law is notable as the first and only ban on the trading of futures contracts of a specific commodity in United States history, and as a unique modern case with which to study the effects of the existence of an active futures market on commodity prices. In particular, proponents of futures markets often claim that they serve to stabilize otherwise volatile commodity supplies (and thus, prices) by providing a market-driven consensus mechanism for future price estimation. The conclusions drawn in subsequent studies of the effects of the Act upon price volatility have been mixed.

The law was enacted after national protests from onion farmers who accused the futures traders at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange of cornering the market for onions, a form of market manipulation that they claimed resulted in absurdly low prices for their crops.

The law was proposed by Republican Congressman Gerald Ford, who later became the President of the United States.[1]

[edit] Effect on price volatilty
The ban provided academics with a unique opportunity to study the effect of an active futures market on commodity prices. Holbrook Working concluded that onion prices had been less volatile during the years when the contract was active than previously.

Roger Gray, a professor emeritus of economics at Stanford University and an expert in agricultural futures markets, analyzed the effects of the ban in 1963 and concluded that the existence of a standardized futures contract had reduced volatility in onion prices while they existed compared to after the ban went into effect.

A subsequent 1973 study by Aaron C. Johnson contradicted that result and concluded that onion prices were less volatile throughout the 1960s than when the contract had been traded.

Or you may read dozens of books or use common sense, or look at people banned, sued, or jailed by these organizations as the "CME or CBOT " or SEC or others Commodities sell at or extremely close to cost that is a primary of the word commodity. If there is a shortage or excess production the product can stop being a commodity at least for a while. To prevent this the US government both buys grain to reduce the likely hood of a storage, and moves grain through foreign aid programs to reduce the likely hood of surplus problems.

The cost of grain typically tracks the cost of fuel; fuel is a primary cost of most commodities so if you look you will find a direct relationship between fuel prices and commodities. Now why post production cost are different than futures cost, there is a variety of factors 1) discounting the value of money, 2)spot market, and 3) the break from the commodity market. Discounting occurs on all money related issues a $1 paid one year from today is worth $1- 365 days of interest(~$0.95) today same for futures so one million dollars worth of grain in six months is worth about ~$975,000 today. If you choice $975,000 today or $1,000,000 in 180 days those are equals The spot market which still exists and clears the grain not covered by futures so if a farmer contracts 80% of his crop the last 20% is sold on a spot market which is affected by all factors. And lastly if the spot market is in surplus or barren then the grain breaks for the commodity market and becomes rationed or dumped via free market principles.

Hope that covers it for you
My challenge stands. Show one instance where a customer account at the CME or CBOT lost money because of a speculator default in the last 100 years. Just one. Any one. You told us speculatos are notorious for not paying. So, just tell us who didn’t get paid on those markets in 100 years.

Well, are you telling us onion prices are more or less volitile with a futures market. Two people you cite say they are less volatile. One says more. What does your common sense tell you?

So, prices are effected by factors other than production costs? Tell us how prices can possible change after harvest by more than the cost of capital which determies the discounting? Do you contend that after harvest price changes are limited to the cost of capital?
 
My challenge stands. Show one instance where a customer account at the CME or CBOT lost money because of a speculator default in the last 100 years. Just one. Any one. You told us speculatos are notorious for not paying. So, just tell us who didn’t get paid on those markets in 100 years.

Well, are you telling us onion prices are more or less volitile with a futures market. Two people you cite say they are less volatile. One says more. What does your common sense tell you?

So, prices are effected by factors other than production costs? Tell us how prices can possible change after harvest by more than the cost of capital which determies the discounting? Do you contend that after harvest price changes are limited to the cost of capital?
100% of account, though I see this is outside your desire ,however agin for the third and final time onion farmer took to Washington over speculators:

*The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which had started out as the Chicago Butter and Egg Board, lost its butter futures business in the 1930s with the advent of federal dairy subsidies. Onion futures, launched in the late 1940s, were an attempt to replace that lost income. But the struggling Merc remained dominated by a handful of traders. In 1957 a couple of them cornered the market in onion futures, and prices skyrocketed. Onion farmers who should have sold at the high prices and pocketed the money instead got swept up in the excitement and bought futures.

“Onions ended up selling for less than the price of the burlap bags in which they were delivered,” recalled Leo Melamed, a trader then who later went on to run the exchange. “The onion farmers of America were outraged. They had lost money on their crops as well as their futures contracts.” The angry farmers lobbied their representatives in Washington to rid them of the plague that was onion futures trading, and got their way in 1958 with a federal ban that remains on the books today.1* this from a Time article (and similarly dozens of other places) curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2008/07/09/what_do_onions_tell_us_about_o/

*On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the giddy fluctuations in onion prices seemed very suspicious to the Commodity Exchange Authority. Beginning at $2.75 per 50-lb. bag last August, the price skidded t010¢ by mid-March. **Last week the Commodity Exchange Authority formally charged that it had sniffed out—as it suspected—a price manipulation plot. **

CEA said that the market-rigging had been directed by a New York onion grower, Vincent W. Kosuga, and a Chicago produce distributor, Sam S. Siegel, in a deal with 13 onion growers. But partway through, said CEA, the city slickers seemed to have doublecrossed the growers, **who lost heavily. **

Last autumn, charged CEA, Kosuga and Siegel bought 928 carloads of onions, which were shipped to Chicago and stored. This constituted 98% of the onion stocks available in Chicago for onion futures delivery. They then asked 13 of the growers to buy onions, threatening to dump their onion holdings on the market and force down prices if the growers refused. The growers accordingly bought 285 carloads for which they paid $168,000. In return, Kosuga and Siegel promised to hold their onion stocks off the market until March 1956, thus supporting the long side of the market.

But the growers were tricked shortly afterwards, when Kosuga and Siegel switched to a short position in the market, CEA charged. In February they held short positions for 1,148 car lots, and the price was down to $1.02 a bag. They were engaging in “a conspiracy to depress the prices in order to cover their short position,” in the March onion futures. To grease the price skids, they allegedly shipped some of their aging onions out of Chicago, had them culled, resorted and repacked, and then sent back to Chicago #151;to make it appear as though large quantities of new onions were pouring into town. As the price fell, the growers were stuck with small mountains of high-priced onions.

Kosuga and Siegel are scheduled to give their rebuttal at a hearing in Chicago next month. Meantime, the onion growers’ cries of pain have been so loud that a House Agriculture Subcommittee is also holding hearings—on a measure to ban onion futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange*.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,891311,00.html
 
So are you a trainer? How do you have an advantage on a day trader? If you imply the day traders have profits stolen by front running well that means you lose less but that is losses not profits. What is it about swing trades that gives advantage?
No, I am not a trainer. However, I intend within about a year or so to enter the market with a sizeable amount, and my first intention is to not lose it. I have been reading anything and everything I can get my hands on; two of the most infuential books are by Dr. Alexander Elder (Come into My Trading Room) and Dr. Van K. Tharp.

I don’t suggest I have an advantage on a day trader; it most definitely is not what I want to do as I don’t want to be sitting in front of two or three monitors going at it 8 or so hours a day. As I have noted, there are day traders who do fantastically well (just a there are floor traders who have done so); and both day trading and floor trading are notorious for people getting themselves wiped out. Whatever rules one needs to follow (and the rules apply across the board - day trading to long term trading), there doesn’t seem to be a lot of breathing room in day trading. Day trading seeks to make quick repeated profits, smaller amounts in more numerous trades (Tharp particularly gives some good examples); Swing traders try to make a bit more over a bit longer time; Position traders try for larger gains over a much longer period of time.

If you have charting available, take a look at what Ruby Tuesday (restaurant chain) did from March through about May. That obviously is an extreme example very rarely repeated, but is the type of increase that one could dream of. And that is most definitely a Position trade.

I was taught Swing trading by use of Candlestick groupings and tight stop losses. The training was premised on a 75% success rate in paper trading before going live in a market. I would be willing to do that with maybe 1/10th of what I will be working with, but Position trading seems far more likely to fit my personality and preferred methodolgy (which is basically formed around what Charles Kirpatrck II, MA, CMT has worked out over the last 20 or so years). If you are interested in a Position trading methodlogy, Google his name; look at his position paper - the one done after 17 years - and check out Amazon for his book (not the textbook he co-wrote).
 
I don’t profess to know much about how the stock exchange works, other than it’s about investing in a company and making returns on how good that company does business-wise. But I do know a hatful about human nature, and I think the rule “All things in moderation” applies. I think some people can get addicted to the thrill of having great returns on their investments, just as a person can get addicted to the thrill of winning big at the slots or at blackjack, and I think, when it starts to consume the person from within, that’s when it can become a problem. When a person starts to invest more than just their time, money and determination, when it’s more about the rush they get when they “win”, that’s when it becomes a problem. Not that doing well and feeling good about it is a bad thing, but when that’s all that matters to you, when you are so consumed by it that it means more to you than life itself, that’s when you need to step back, reassess your priorities and put it all in God’s hands.
Life is not necessarily an either/or. At times there are numerous possiblities. I agree whole-heartedly that one can get caught up in greed over the market. Obviously, one way to avoid that would be to buy a stock, and then just sit back and ignore the market, under the assumption that eventually the stock overall will increase in value.

Anyone who bouth Microsoft or Apple early in their existence and still hold it has done quite well.

Anyone who did that with Enron lost their shorts, shoes and hat. We often hear about the successes of those who did well with this method, but rarely hear about the ones that tanked. Buy and hold only works well if one is successful at buying when it is low and also buyhing the one that has the long term gains. Businesses come and businesses go, and market cycles come and go; one can be on the wrong side of either one or both and not need to have bothered.

It is possible to get into the market and treat it like a business (which it really is), and not get into an emotional greed streak, and do well. It is also possible to get into the market and get addicited to it, or to become greed driven. Both reactions generally will not bode well for profit, and neither are building up the Body of Christ, nor are they conducive of salvation.

Like most things, part of what it takes at its very base is a true self-honesty and examination of conscience. If one is not truly honest about what one is doing and why they are doing it, one ends up where one ought not go, no matter whether it is stock trading or some other aspect of life.

A hatful about human nature - I like that!
 
100% of account, though I see this is outside your desire ,however agin for the third and final time onion farmer took to Washington over speculators:

*The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which had started out as the Chicago Butter and Egg Board, lost its butter futures business in the 1930s with the advent of federal dairy subsidies. Onion futures, launched in the late 1940s, were an attempt to replace that lost income. But the struggling Merc remained dominated by a handful of traders. In 1957 a couple of them cornered the market in onion futures, and prices skyrocketed. Onion farmers who should have sold at the high prices and pocketed the money instead got swept up in the excitement and bought futures.

“Onions ended up selling for less than the price of the burlap bags* in which they were delivered,” recalled Leo Melamed, a trader then who later went on to run the exchange. “The onion farmers of America were outraged. They had lost money on their crops as well as their futures contracts.” The angry farmers lobbied their representatives in Washington to rid them of the plague that was onion futures trading, and got their way in 1958 with a federal ban that remains on the books today.1 this from a Time article (and similarly dozens of other places) curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2008/07/09/what_do_onions_tell_us_about_o/

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the giddy fluctuations in onion prices seemed very suspicious to the Commodity Exchange Authority. Beginning at $2.75 per 50-lb. bag last August, the price skidded t010¢ by mid-March. **Last week the Commodity Exchange Authority formally charged that it had sniffed out—as it suspected—a price manipulation plot. **

CEA said that the market-rigging had been directed by a New York onion grower, Vincent W. Kosuga, and a Chicago produce distributor, Sam S. Siegel, in a deal with 13 onion growers. But partway through, said CEA, the city slickers seemed to have doublecrossed the growers, **who lost heavily. **

Last autumn, charged CEA, Kosuga and Siegel bought 928 carloads of onions, which were shipped to Chicago and stored. This constituted 98% of the onion stocks available in Chicago for onion futures delivery. They then asked 13 of the growers to buy onions, threatening to dump their onion holdings on the market and force down prices if the growers refused. The growers accordingly bought 285 carloads for which they paid $168,000. In return, Kosuga and Siegel promised to hold their onion stocks off the market until March 1956, thus supporting the long side of the market.

But the growers were tricked shortly afterwards, when Kosuga and Siegel switched to a short position in the market, CEA charged. In February they held short positions for 1,148 car lots, and the price was down to $1.02 a bag. They were engaging in “a conspiracy to depress the prices in order to cover their short position,” in the March onion futures. To grease the price skids, they allegedly shipped some of their aging onions out of Chicago, had them culled, resorted and repacked, and then sent back to Chicago #151;to make it appear as though large quantities of new onions were pouring into town. As the price fell, the growers were stuck with small mountains of high-priced onions.

Kosuga and Siegel are scheduled to give their rebuttal at a hearing in Chicago next month. Meantime, the onion growers’ cries of pain have been so loud that a House Agriculture Subcommittee is also holding hearings—on a measure to ban onion futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,891311,00.html
For the third and final time, you have failed to show a single account at the CME or CBOT that lost money due to speculator default in the past 100 years. You were the one who said speculators were notorious for not paying. So, who din’t get paid on the CME and CBOT?

Kansas City September wheat fell 26 cents to $5.34 today. All production costs have been expended. The crop has been harvested. How could this happen? You tell us prices are very clse to production costs. Did already spent production costs fall by 26 cents today? You tell us the other factor after harvest is discounting. Today’s move was about 4.6%. Is the current interest rate 4.6% per day? So, how could this 26 cent price fall happen?

In the past 3 days KC Sep wheat fell from $5.79 to $5.34. That’s a 45 cent drop. How could prices drop 7.8% in three days? Production costs sure didn’t change.

And maybe you can tell us about those fees the CME charges that include the costs of speculators? Just how does it work?
 
For the third and final time, you have failed to show a single account at the CME or CBOT that lost money due to speculator default in the past 100 years. You were the one who said speculators were notorious for not paying. So, who din’t get paid on the CME and CBOT?

Kansas City September wheat fell 26 cents to $5.34 today. All production costs have been expended. The crop has been harvested. How could this happen? You tell us prices are very clse to production costs. Did already spent production costs fall by 26 cents today? You tell us the other factor after harvest is discounting. Today’s move was about 4.6%. Is the current interest rate 4.6% per day? So, how could this 26 cent price fall happen?

In the past 3 days KC Sep wheat fell from $5.79 to $5.34. That’s a 45 cent drop. How could prices drop 7.8% in three days? Production costs sure didn’t change.

And maybe you can tell us about those fees the CME charges that include the costs of speculators? Just how does it work?
*Jack H. KELLY, Petitioner, v. Vincent W. KOSUGA.
United States Supreme Court

April 6, 1959

3 L.Ed.2d 475; 358 U.S. 516; 79 S.Ct. 429

See 359 U.S. 962, 79 S.Ct. 796.

Mr. Joseph W. Louisell, Detroit, Mich., for petitioner.

Mr. Lee A. Freeman, Chicago, Ill., for respondent.

Mr. Justice BRENNAN delivered the opinion of the Court.

1
The respondent sued the petitioner in the District Court for the Northern District of Illinois for failing to complete payment of the purchase price of 50 cars of onions which the respondent had sold to the petitioner in December 1955.*
altlaw.org/v1/cases/388443

btw this is the indictment for the onion futures case (there is another party)
 
*Jack H. KELLY, Petitioner, v. Vincent W. KOSUGA.
United States Supreme Court

April 6, 1959

3 L.Ed.2d 475; 358 U.S. 516; 79 S.Ct. 429

See 359 U.S. 962, 79 S.Ct. 796.

Mr. Joseph W. Louisell, Detroit, Mich., for petitioner.

Mr. Lee A. Freeman, Chicago, Ill., for respondent.

Mr. Justice BRENNAN delivered the opinion of the Court.

1
The respondent sued the petitioner in the District Court for the Northern District of Illinois for failing to complete payment* of the purchase price of 50 cars of onions which the respondent had sold to the petitioner in December 1955.
altlaw.org/v1/cases/388443

btw this is the indictment for the onion futures case (there is another party)
Fourth and final.

That wasn’t on the CME or CBOT. No positions on those exchanges are between private parties, so no private party has any standing to sue another private party over an exchange trade.

"The District Court then found, on the undisputed facts, that petitioner had in fact purchased the 50 cars of onions from the respondent at an agreed price of $960 per car, plus storage charges incurred after sale; that petitioner had withdrawn 13 cars of the onions from the designated storage places after the sale, but had not withdrawn the remainder; that, while petitioner had made some payments on account of the sale, he had come into default on them; and that, when the onions began to show signs of deterioration, the respondent properly, after repudiation of the purchase by the petitioner, withdrew the remaining cars from storage and sold them for petitioner’s account. The District Court entered summary judgment for the unpaid purchase price and storage charges, less the amounts obtained on the sale by respondent, the market price having declined in the interim. The Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit affirmed. 257 F.2d 48.

The above was not an CME or CBOT trade.

My challenge stands. Show one instance where a customer account at the CME or CBOT lost money because of a speculator default in the last 100 years. Just one. Any one. You told us speculatos are notorious for not paying. So, just tell us who didn’t get paid on those markets in 100 years.
 
Fourth and final.

That wasn’t on the CME or CBOT. No positions on those exchanges are between private parties, so no private party has any standing to sue another private party over an exchange trade.

*"The District Court then found, on the undisputed facts, that petitioner had in fact purchased the 50 cars of onions from the respondent at an agreed price of $960 per car, plus storage charges incurred after sale; that petitioner had withdrawn 13 cars of the onions from the designated storage places after the sale, but had not withdrawn the remainder; that, while petitioner had made some payments on account of the sale, he had come into **default ***on them; and that, when the onions began to show signs of deterioration, the respondent properly, after repudiation of the purchase by the petitioner, withdrew the remaining cars from storage and sold them for petitioner’s account. The District Court entered **summary judgment for the unpaid purchase **price and storage charges, less the amounts obtained on the sale by respondent, the market price having declined in the interim. The Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit affirmed. 257 F.2d 48.

The above was not an CME or CBOT trade.

My challenge stands. Show one instance where a customer account at the CME or CBOT lost money because of a speculator default in the last 100 years. Just one. Any one. You told us speculatos are notorious for not paying. So, just tell us who didn’t get paid on those markets in 100 years.
 
Life is not necessarily an either/or. At times there are numerous possiblities. I agree whole-heartedly that one can get caught up in greed over the market. Obviously, one way to avoid that would be to buy a stock, and then just sit back and ignore the market, under the assumption that eventually the stock overall will increase in value.

Anyone who bouth Microsoft or Apple early in their existence and still hold it has done quite well.

Anyone who did that with Enron lost their shorts, shoes and hat. We often hear about the successes of those who did well with this method, but rarely hear about the ones that tanked. Buy and hold only works well if one is successful at buying when it is low and also buyhing the one that has the long term gains. Businesses come and businesses go, and market cycles come and go; one can be on the wrong side of either one or both and not need to have bothered.

It is possible to get into the market and treat it like a business (which it really is), and not get into an emotional greed streak, and do well. It is also possible to get into the market and get addicited to it, or to become greed driven. Both reactions generally will not bode well for profit, and neither are building up the Body of Christ, nor are they conducive of salvation.

Like most things, part of what it takes at its very base is a true self-honesty and examination of conscience. If one is not truly honest about what one is doing and why they are doing it, one ends up where one ought not go, no matter whether it is stock trading or some other aspect of life.

A hatful about human nature - I like that!
The Enron example points to why a person needs to diversify his/her portfolio. It is never a good idea to put all your eggs in one basket. We cannot predict the future.
A person does indeed need to learn about a company before investing. Does the product or service look promising in the long run? Is it something you would buy for yourself.
Often a home is seen as an investment. It is a place where a person chooses to live. The greed of housing market speculators can keep a family out of a decent home. I saw this in action while living in CA. as prices sky rocketed. Homelessness before 1980 was rare. More recently, while some people made money “condo flipping,” those who joined this game later lost money.
 
No, I am not a trainer. However, I intend within about a year or so to enter the market with a sizeable amount, and my first intention is to not lose it. I have been reading anything and everything I can get my hands on; two of the most infuential books are by Dr. Alexander Elder (Come into My Trading Room) and Dr. Van K. Tharp.

I don’t suggest I have an advantage on a day trader; it most definitely is not what I want to do as I don’t want to be sitting in front of two or three monitors going at it 8 or so hours a day. As I have noted, there are day traders who do fantastically well (just a there are floor traders who have done so); and both day trading and floor trading are notorious for people getting themselves wiped out. Whatever rules one needs to follow (and the rules apply across the board - day trading to long term trading), there doesn’t seem to be a lot of breathing room in day trading. Day trading seeks to make quick repeated profits, smaller amounts in more numerous trades (Tharp particularly gives some good examples); Swing traders try to make a bit more over a bit longer time; Position traders try for larger gains over a much longer period of time.

If you have charting available, take a look at what Ruby Tuesday (restaurant chain) did from March through about May. That obviously is an extreme example very rarely repeated, but is the type of increase that one could dream of. And that is most definitely a Position trade.

I was taught Swing trading by use of Candlestick groupings and tight stop losses. The training was premised on a 75% success rate in paper trading before going live in a market. I would be willing to do that with maybe 1/10th of what I will be working with, but Position trading seems far more likely to fit my personality and preferred methodolgy (which is basically formed around what Charles Kirpatrck II, MA, CMT has worked out over the last 20 or so years). If you are interested in a Position trading methodlogy, Google his name; look at his position paper - the one done after 17 years - and check out Amazon for his book (not the textbook he co-wrote).
Well I wish you luck but I am staying with the “hold” philosophy it is based on the concept that $1 invested today will typically grow to $2 in 10 years, $4.30 in 20 years and $6.34 in 25 years(real dollars). The growth is through company improvement, not market timing. I do not understand how other systems were not on “buy” signals for Ruby Tuesday in Sept-Oct '07 those purchases would be big losses
 
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Texas_Roofer:
Fifth and final.

The Kelly v Kosuga trades were not on the CME or the CBOT. Therefore, after five tries you have failed the challenge.

My challenge stands. Show one instance where a customer account at the CME or CBOT lost money because of a speculator default in the last 100 years. Just one. Any one. You told us speculatos are notorious for not paying. So, just tell us who didn’t get paid on those markets in 100 years.

And how about your claim the CME charges fees that include the costs of speculators? Just how does it work? It’s your claim. How does that work?

And maybe you can tell us how price can move nearly 8% in three days on commodities that have already been harvested if price is closely tied to production cost? It’s your claim prices are set by production costs and interest rates. Is it possible those prices could move even lower under your notion of price discovery?
 
The Enron example points to why a person needs to diversify his/her portfolio. It is never a good idea to put all your eggs in one basket. We cannot predict the future.
A person does indeed need to learn about a company before investing. Does the product or service look promising in the long run? Is it something you would buy for yourself.
Often a home is seen as an investment. It is a place where a person chooses to live. The greed of housing market speculators can keep a family out of a decent home. I saw this in action while living in CA. as prices sky rocketed. Homelessness before 1980 was rare. More recently, while some people made money “condo flipping,” those who joined this game later lost money.
However, if a person is using primarily or exclusively technical analysis to deal with stock, then one does not need to know what the company does.

Note: That should not preclude having enough information that one does not rade in stock of a company, for example, that is devoted to ABC, e.g. or abortion (to use two examples); or a drug company whose focus is on cloning.

Using technical information to base buying and selling on is not an idiot’s paradise nor is it immoral; it simpy says that if a stock is going down, buying it right then does not make sense; and if it is going up, selling it may not make sense right then either.
 
Fifth and final.

The Kelly v Kosuga trades were not on the CME or the CBOT. Therefore, after five tries you have failed the challenge.

My challenge stands. Show one instance where a customer account at the CME or CBOT lost money because of a speculator default in the last 100 years. Just one. Any one. You told us speculatos are notorious for not paying. So, just tell us who didn’t get paid on those markets in 100 years.

And how about your claim the CME charges fees that include the costs of speculators? Just how does it work? It’s your claim. How does that work?

And maybe you can tell us how price can move nearly 8% in three days on commodities that have already been harvested if price is closely tied to production cost? It’s your claim prices are set by production costs and interest rates. Is it possible those prices could move even lower under your notion of price discovery?
The information has been repeatedly posted. Your own post show summary judgement and default. To this day onoin futures cannot be traded. Onions are used as a case study to this day both for law and for economists. It would be a terrible mistake to assume this was an isolated incident.
 
However, if a person is using primarily or exclusively technical analysis to deal with stock, then one does not need to know what the company does.

Note: That should not preclude having enough information that one does not rade in stock of a company, for example, that is devoted to ABC, e.g. or abortion (to use two examples); or a drug company whose focus is on cloning.

Using technical information to base buying and selling on is not an idiot’s paradise nor is it immoral; it simpy says that if a stock is going down, buying it right then does not make sense; and if it is going up, selling it may not make sense right then either.
The only thing I would add is technical analysis operates in a larger context of fundamentals.
 
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