“1) the values of proposed “answers” ranges from 10[sup]-10[/sup] to 10[sup]10[/sup] civilzations in the universe–this is a bad theory to have such a massive range!”
Alberti Devoveo
???
Perhaps you are confused because the Drake equation was used to determine civilizations in our galaxy. I used it for the entire universe.
Perhaps you think that using the most pessimistic probability (1 in 100,000,000,000) is wrong because there are more optimistic probabilities. Suppose the range of probabilities is (the most pessimistic probability ) that there are 2 green apples in a collection of 10 apples to a more optimistic probability that there are 5 green apples in a collection of 10.It is reasonable to say that there are at least 2 green apples.
I was not insulting your IQ when I said 100,000,000,000 instead of 100 billion. My point (as shown in the site that revealed what 100 billion pennies looks like ) is that we really do not have a grasp of how large these numbers are. You really should stop taking everything so personally.
I would be a terrible astrophysicist if I were confused about the Drake equation. I know that it is generally applied to the galaxy, but you are for surely no the first who has applied to the universe.
As I stated in the previous post, my problem with the Drake equation is two-fold:
(1) the biases involved in choosing the particular value; someone who wants life to be more prevalent will use numbers showing that bias, someone who wants life to be less prevalent will use numbers showing that bias.
(2) the theory is not necessarily complete because we do not know what
are the conditions for life evolving on a planet! Our statistics on the conditions are
one!
I did not say you were insulting my intelligence with writing 100 billion out, I was pointing out that you are trying to impress people with big numbers by using their numerical values, rather than their designations.
Response to post 144
I am not saying that I proved that we are not alone. I proved that it is VERY unlikely. For example, I can calculate the probability that you will throw 10 tails in a row. I then say that is very unlikely. That is true. However, it is still possible (tho very unlikely ) that you will throw 10 tails in a row.
Statistically speaking, all the molecules in your bedroom could occupy the same cm[sup]3[/sup] of space (leaving the rest of the room a vacuum). Fortunately, all the other possible configurations of the molecules in your bedroom dwarf the near-vacuum state described. Fortunately as well, the physics of statistical mechanics for this near-vacuum case ignore the physics of diffusion that would prevent that state from actualizing.
Just because there is a probability of something does not mean (a) that it could actually occur and (b) that it actually has occurred.
I also would state that a 1 in 512 chance (the odds of getting 10 heads in a row) is actually fairly (and possibly regularly) doable.
Response to post 144
This is a continuation of my post 146
My computer cannot write exponents, so if I want to say,for example 10 to the third I will write it as 10(3).
Are you saying that the Drake equation’s most pessimistic estimate was that there are 10(-10) civilizations in the universe? Thats 1/1000000000 (a fraction!) civilizations in the universe! I think that number means that there is one civilization per 1000000000 stars. That is 100 times more optimistic then my 1 in 100000000000! And my extraordinary pessimistic probability leads to 100 billion civilizations!!
I do not see how you got that out of what I wrote (in fact, I just threw out two numbers that were big and small to show the range, I really do not know if those are values that people are indeed proposing).
Hopefully, my clarification of my issues with the Drake equation in this post will elucidate you on what I mean with the numbers.
Are we Christians crazy too? :ehh:
