Firstly, while i am not saying that it is impossible, there is no a-prior reason to think that a particular structure moving in a particular way is the ultimate reason for intelligence, or will produce intelligence.
It depends on the particular structure, no? The structure of a rock, say, would not give the impression of “mental capability”. But a mesh of trillions of tighly interconnected electrical nodes, furiously consuming energy, with an array of active (name removed by moderator)uts it responds to dynamically, that sounds like a recipe for cognition. As we build software and computing machinery, we see the efficacy of that architecture as we progress.
That’s a post facto reason, one drawn from our experiences and knowledge of nature.
We know that intelligence exists in structures of a particular kind, but we don’t know why any structure of any sort would be intelligent at all.
If it’s a structure that can store (name removed by moderator)ut, process (name removed by moderator)ut, make inferences, and formulate output such that those inferences are subject to further feedback… it can learn. Having written evolutionary algorithms that work on data sets for large networks, it’s striking to see “just a bunch of code” learn and identify patterns in ways that were not even contemplated, let alone put into the software design as such. And that’s just some geeks working on network intrusion detection to make a buck or two. Those kinds of structures are not foreign or magical.
It just so happens that a particular kind of structure possesses intelligence, and while it is true that we can learn how that structure moves or works, this doesn’t actually tell us why intelligence exists in virtue of that particular kind of structure moving in a particular manner; let alone why there is any such thing as physical laws and functional qualities in the first place. It can only tell us that an intelligence does in fact exist in correlation with certain conditions.
That’s not much a criticism. That’s all we can know in
any context. Any
why can be restated as a pattern correlated with “certain conditions”.
Therefore this idea that complexity of information will necessarily lead to the existence of a self aware intelligence is a desired assumption.
It’s not an assumption – it’s something we’ve come to believe at length, after a whole lot of exploration and knowledge building. And I’m not aware of any necessity implicated in this. It’s not hard to imagine the “tape of earth’s history” being rerun, and life doesn’t arise before the sun explodes. Or maybe organic life evolves, but nothing we would call cognition arises before the sun burns out. It’s actual but I’m not aware of anyone who claims it’s necessary. Given the right chemicals combining in the right way at various crucial points in time, it would be necessary (physics just being physics), but that necessity only obtains when you’ve removed all the chance elements.
Without knowledge of the ultimate cause, we are in the dark about what can happen and what can’t happen.
I can’t agree, but on that view, nihilism. On my view “ultimate cause” is a non-starter, a completely opaque, inscrutable target. We build knowledge from the inside out; from the local, tentative, immediate, outward. We never reach "ultimate’, but we can and do make good progress, as reading this sentence on your computer shows.
Secondly; intelligence appears to arise in “biological structures”. Thus, while there is no proof that intelligence cannot arise in different structures, there is good reason to think that without any plausible examples to the contrary there is no good reason to think AI is possible.
By that measure, we couldn’t believe airplanes couldn’t fly. For all we could see is that flight can arise in biological structures, and without any non-biological examples to the contrary, there is no good reason to think airplanes could fly.
And that’s a good example to view this through. Biological flight isn’t the apotheosis, but just a “pointer” to the underlying physics - thrust to weight ratios, lift, airfoils, drag, etc. We learn about flight from the bird’s wing, but the bird is not flight, but a partaker in flight.
So too, intelligence. Humans are the apotheosis (and in some ways, we are utterly pathetic), but just a pointer to the underlying physics – concept formation, network topologies, inference engines, feedback loops, stimulus/response patterns, cumulative processes, etc. We learn about intelligence from the mind, but the mind is not intelligence, but a partaker in intelligence. Like the airplane, computing machinery is a platform nor partaking in a non-biological way, grounded in the same physical principles as its biological counterparts.
Perhaps fusion of the biological and the technological is a more plausible avenue of investigation. As this would almost probably involve human embryos i would have ethical reservations for such an investigation. I would much rather they continue to fantasize about a robotic AI.
Yeah, that would be an ethical challenge for sure. Strong AI is a sobering view on the remarkable complexity and refinement of the human brain. But the more we go along, the problems appear more and more to be problems of scale, and performance than architecture or capability. Problems that technical progress has a history of crushing under its heathen wheels…
-TS